本文關(guān)鍵詞： 干旱災(zāi)害 AHP層次分析法 GIS 風(fēng)險評估 新疆地區(qū)　出處：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：全球范圍內(nèi)的氣候變暖已成趨勢,氣候變暖將影響全球水循環(huán)以及各區(qū)域水分平衡。氣候變暖導(dǎo)致水資源的時空分布發(fā)生變化、降雨的時空分布更加不均勻,進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致極端氣候頻繁發(fā)生。新疆地區(qū)地處西北內(nèi)陸干旱區(qū),水資源總量嚴(yán)重缺乏,因為干旱造成的水資源短缺是制衡新疆地區(qū)生態(tài)平衡和制約新疆地區(qū)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)、穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵因素。因此,新疆地區(qū)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險等級的劃分,對今后新疆地區(qū)防災(zāi)減災(zāi)、農(nóng)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、農(nóng)業(yè)用水規(guī)劃及生態(tài)環(huán)境的建設(shè)具有重要的參考價值。本文基于新疆地區(qū)1961-2013年53年間50個氣象站逐月降水?dāng)?shù)據(jù),通過計算降水距平百分率、降水Z指數(shù)、SPI,查閱《新疆統(tǒng)計年鑒》得到農(nóng)業(yè)、經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)。根據(jù)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險指數(shù)模型理論,選取了降水距平百分率、降水Z指數(shù)、SPI、作物、人口密度、廢水排放量、GDP和有效灌溉面積八個指標(biāo)對旱災(zāi)情況進(jìn)行風(fēng)險評價。將基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化處理,通過反距離權(quán)重插值得到面積權(quán)重,結(jié)合AHP層次分析方法和熵權(quán)重法賦予指標(biāo)因子權(quán)重,選取最優(yōu)分割法等級化計算過程和GIS的干旱評估模型和風(fēng)險評估方法,將新疆地區(qū)劃分為低風(fēng)險區(qū)、較低風(fēng)險區(qū)、一般風(fēng)險區(qū)、較高風(fēng)險區(qū)、高風(fēng)險區(qū)5個等級,初步提出新疆地區(qū)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險區(qū)劃分方案。主要得到以下結(jié)果:(1)近10年即2004-2013年新疆地區(qū)降水距平百分率差異從-38.52~51.63不等。新疆地區(qū)不同時期不同的旱澇情況具有明顯的時空分布特征,且區(qū)域性較強(qiáng),從總體上看,東北部與東南部降水呈現(xiàn)減少趨勢,西南部呈增高趨勢。(2)新疆地區(qū)總體旱澇十分不穩(wěn)定,降水Z指數(shù)、SPI總體呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢。1961-2013年間發(fā)生旱災(zāi)17次,發(fā)生澇災(zāi)15次,即旱澇發(fā)生的頻繁且分布基本平均,但發(fā)生偏旱的頻率明顯大于其他級別的旱澇事件。新疆地區(qū)降水在未來呈增加趨勢,人口密度、廢水排放總量、GDP和有效灌溉面積呈不同速率的增長。(3)從新疆地區(qū)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險區(qū)劃分方案可以看出新疆地區(qū)干旱風(fēng)險存在明顯的地域差異。干旱災(zāi)害的高風(fēng)險區(qū)主要集中在新疆西南部地區(qū),和田地區(qū)、喀什地區(qū)和柯爾克孜自治州整體接近高風(fēng)險區(qū)。該區(qū)域全年降水稀少,蒸發(fā)量高,具有極高的危險性,故評價結(jié)果為高風(fēng)險區(qū)。中部地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)達(dá),人口眾多,降水量充足,其防災(zāi)減災(zāi)能力較強(qiáng),故評價結(jié)果為一般風(fēng)險區(qū)域。北部地區(qū)和中南部地區(qū)盡管有著相當(dāng)?shù)奈ｋU性和暴露性,但是由于人口和耕地普遍較為稀少,因此暴露性和防災(zāi)減災(zāi)能力都很低,故評價結(jié)果為較高風(fēng)險區(qū)。
[Abstract]:Global warming has become a trend, global warming will affect the global water cycle and regional water balance. The Xinjiang region is located in the northwest inland arid region, and the total water resources are seriously lacking. The shortage of water resources caused by drought is the key factor to balance the ecological balance and restrict the sustainable and stable development of the national economy in Xinjiang. In the future, the agricultural structure of Xinjiang will be adjusted for disaster prevention and mitigation. The planning of agricultural water use and the construction of ecological environment have important reference value. This paper is based on the monthly precipitation data of 50 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1961-2013. By calculating precipitation anomaly percentage, precipitation Z index SPI, looking up the Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook to obtain agricultural and economic indicators. According to the drought disaster risk index model theory, the precipitation anomaly percentage is selected. Precipitation Z index SPI, crop, population density, waste water discharge, GDP and effective irrigation area were used to evaluate the drought risk, and the basic data were standardized. The area weight is obtained by the inverse distance weight interpolation, and the index factor weight is given by combining the AHP analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method. Selecting the optimal segmentation method grade calculation process and GIS drought assessment model and risk assessment method, Xinjiang area is divided into low risk area, low risk area, general risk area, higher risk area. 5 grades in high risk areas. A preliminary plan for the division of drought risk areas in Xinjiang is put forward. The main results are as follows: 1). The difference of precipitation anomaly percentage in Xinjiang in recent 10 years is from -38.52 to 51.63. The drought and flood in different periods in Xinjiang have obvious spatial and temporal distribution characteristics. . On the whole, the precipitation of northeast and southeast shows a decreasing trend, and the southwest shows an increasing trend.) the total drought and flood in Xinjiang are very unstable, and the precipitation Z index is very unstable. There were 17 droughts and 15 waterlogging in the period of 1961-2013 in SPI, that is, the occurrence of drought and flood occurred frequently and the distribution was basically average. However, the frequency of partial drought is obviously higher than other levels of drought and flood events. The precipitation in Xinjiang will increase in the future, the population density, the total amount of wastewater discharge. GDP and effective irrigation area increased at different rates. From the division of drought risk areas in Xinjiang, we can see that there are obvious regional differences in drought risk in Xinjiang. The high risk areas of drought disasters are mainly concentrated in the southwest of Xinjiang. Hotan area, Kashi area and Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture are close to high risk area. The region has rare precipitation, high evaporation and high risk, so the evaluation result is high risk area. Because of its large population, abundant precipitation and strong ability of disaster prevention and mitigation, the evaluation results are general risk areas, although the northern and central and southern regions have considerable risks and exposures. However, the population and cultivated land are generally scarce, so the exposure and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation are very low, so the evaluation results are high risk areas.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：S423

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本文編號：1461720