本文關(guān)鍵詞：未來氣候變化對云南烤煙種植氣候適宜性的影響　出處：《應(yīng)用生態(tài)學(xué)報(bào)》2016年04期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 烤煙 氣候變化 適宜性

【摘要】：云南烤煙種植的氣候適宜性分布將受到氣候變化的深刻影響.根據(jù)云南烤煙種植氣候適宜性的3個(gè)決定因子(7月平均氣溫、7—8月日照時(shí)數(shù)、4—9月降水量),利用1981—2060年的氣候模擬數(shù)據(jù)及1986—2005年的氣象臺(tái)站實(shí)測數(shù)據(jù),分析了1986—2005年及RCP4.5和RCP8.5氣候情景下2021—2040年、2041—2060年云南烤煙種植氣候適宜性分布的變化.結(jié)果表明:未來氣候情景下,云南烤煙種植氣候適宜分布呈現(xiàn)北抬東擴(kuò)的趨勢,未來云南烤煙可種植區(qū)域?qū)⒊手饾u增加的趨勢,且2041—2060年增幅大于2021—2040年、RCP8.5情景的增幅大于RCP4.5情景,其中,烤煙的最適宜區(qū)域、次適宜區(qū)域增幅均較大,適宜區(qū)域則變化不大.未來云南中北部煙區(qū)的昆明、曲靖、大理、楚雄、麗江最適宜區(qū)面積與可種植面積增幅較大,文山、紅河、普洱、西雙版納等南部煙區(qū)最適宜區(qū)面積與可種植面積減幅較大.
[Abstract]:The climatic suitability distribution of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan will be deeply affected by climate change. According to the three determinants of climate suitability of Yunnan flue-cured tobacco planting (July mean temperature July to August sunshine hours). From April to September, the precipitation was measured by using the climatic simulation data from 1981 to 2060 and the measured data from meteorological stations from 1986 to 2005. The period 1986-2005 and 2021-2040 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios were analyzed. The change of climate suitability distribution of Yunnan flue-cured tobacco planting in 2041-2060. The results showed that the suitable climate distribution of Yunnan flue-cured tobacco planting showed the trend of expanding from north to east under future climate scenarios. In the future, the growing area of flue-cured tobacco in Yunnan will gradually increase, and the increase in 2041-2060 is larger than that in 2021-2040. The increase of RCP 8.5 is larger than that of RCP4.5. Among them, the most suitable area of flue-cured tobacco, sub-suitable area increase is large, suitable area is not changed. Kunming, Qujing, Dali, Chuxiong in the future tobacco area of central and northern Yunnan. The area and acreage of planting in the most suitable area of Lijiang increased greatly, and the area of the most suitable area and acreage of planting in Wenshan, Honghe, Pu'er, Xishuangbanna and other southern tobacco regions decreased greatly.
【作者單位】： 云南省氣候中心;
【基金】：中國氣象局氣候變化專項(xiàng)(CCSF201426)資助~~
【分類號(hào)】：S572;S162.54
【正文快照】： 本文由中國氣象局氣候變化專項(xiàng)(CCSF201426)資助This work wassupported by the Climate Change Special Project of China MeteorologicalAdministration(CCSF201426).2015-07-15 Received,2016-01-28 Accepted.氣候變化已經(jīng)深刻地影響了全球社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和人類健康生活[1],，

本文編號(hào)：1393312