本文關(guān)鍵詞：氣候變化條件下農(nóng)業(yè)低溫災(zāi)害特征分析　出處：《中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院》2016年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 氣候變化 低溫災(zāi)害 霜凍 冷害

【摘要】：近年來(lái)氣候變化對(duì)我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生了重大影響。研究氣候變化背景下我國(guó)低溫災(zāi)害變化特征,對(duì)我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)合理適應(yīng)氣候變化具有重要意義。本文以氣溫和降水為主要研究對(duì)象,通過(guò)計(jì)算氣候要素在1965-2014年間不同時(shí)間尺度的變化趨勢(shì)分析我國(guó)近50年來(lái)的氣候變化時(shí)空差異性;通過(guò)綜合分析1992-2011年低溫災(zāi)害、氣溫、生育期的變化情況,探討該時(shí)段低溫災(zāi)害的變化特征及其與氣溫、生育期變化的關(guān)系。研究得到主要結(jié)論如下:(1)近50年中,我國(guó)整體升溫。北方升溫升高趨勢(shì)大于南方,在北方升溫較強(qiáng)的地區(qū),最低溫度升高程度普遍高于平均溫度和最高溫度。降水變化方面,華東地區(qū)降水明顯增多,西南、華北地區(qū)降水減少。東北、華中地區(qū)地區(qū)降水變化區(qū)域性差異較大,西北地區(qū)降水變化程度不大,以增加為主。(2)近50年中,不同月份間溫度年際變化線性趨勢(shì)不同。10月至2月,我國(guó)基本保持了一致的增溫;3-9月,我國(guó)有明顯的降溫區(qū)域,其中以華中地區(qū)降溫月份最多,程度最大。溫度波動(dòng)在冬半年以減弱為主;夏半年波動(dòng)增強(qiáng)的區(qū)域增加。最低溫度波動(dòng)的減弱最為明顯。降水明顯變化主要發(fā)生在4月-10月。對(duì)西南地區(qū)降水減少貢獻(xiàn)最大的是6月、8月;華北降水減少主要發(fā)生在7-8月。華東地區(qū)降水各個(gè)月份間差異最大,主要的增加月份是1月、3月、7月和8月,減少程度較大的月份是4月、5月和9月。(3)在過(guò)去50年中,東北、華北地區(qū)在第三個(gè)十年(1985-1994年)增溫最快;華南、華中、西南、西北地區(qū)西南部以第四個(gè)十年(1995-2004年)增溫最快。1975-1984年,華北、華中、華東等地氣溫下降;而2005-2014年間,我國(guó)大部分臺(tái)站氣溫呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì)。降水方面,我國(guó)西北地區(qū)在50年中普遍為弱的增加趨勢(shì)。西南、華北地區(qū)西部降水持續(xù)減少。東北和華南地區(qū)的東南部,華中地區(qū)北部以及華北的沿海地區(qū)近二十年降水一致減少。(4)在1992-2011年間,我國(guó)遭受霜凍害的站次總體減少,華東地區(qū)霜凍站次減少最多,華南和西北地區(qū)為霜凍站次增加的主要地區(qū);冷害站次總體增多,東北地區(qū)冷害的增加最為突出,華南地區(qū)冷害站次增加,華中地區(qū)的冷害站次減少。(5)在1992-2011年間,東北地區(qū)7月、華南地區(qū)12月-1月的氣溫下降趨勢(shì)使得該區(qū)域低溫災(zāi)害站次增加;(6)在1992-2011年間,西北地區(qū)冬小麥返青拔節(jié)期提前、春玉米出苗提前使得西北地區(qū)在變暖的情況遭受晚霜凍害的站次增多;華東地區(qū)1月冬小麥停止生長(zhǎng)期提前、油菜現(xiàn)蕾期推遲是該地區(qū)1月變冷但遭受霜凍害站次減少的重要原因。
[Abstract]: in recent years, climate change has had a significant impact on agricultural production in China. The study of the characteristics of the change of low temperature disasters in China under the background of climate change is of great significance to the rational adaptation of agriculture to climate change in China. Based on the temperature and precipitation as the main research object, through the change trend of climatic factors in different time scale calculated from 1965-2014 analysis of nearly 50 years of climate change of China's spatial and temporal differences; through the comprehensive analysis of 1992-2011 low temperature disaster, temperature, growth period change situation, explore the time variation characteristics of low temperature disaster and its relationship with the change of temperature, growth period. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) in the last 50 years, China has been heated up as a whole. The rising trend of heating in the north is greater than that in the south, and the minimum temperature rise is generally higher than the average temperature and the highest temperature in the areas with strong warming in the north. In the area of precipitation change, precipitation in eastern China increased significantly, and precipitation in southwest and North China decreased. The regional difference of precipitation changes in Northeast and central China is great, and the precipitation change degree in Northwest China is not large, which is mainly increased. (2) in the last 50 years, the linear trend of interannual variation in temperature varies between different months. From October to February, our country basically maintained a consistent increase in temperature; in 3-9 months, there was a clear cooling zone in China, with the most cooling months in Central China and the greatest degree. The temperature fluctuates mainly in the winter half year, and the region increases in summer half year. The lowest temperature fluctuation is most obvious. The obvious change of precipitation occurred mainly in -10 month of April. The largest contribution to precipitation reduction in Southwest China was in June and August, and the decrease in precipitation in North China mainly occurred in 7-8 months. The precipitation in East China is the largest in each month, the main increasing months are January, March, July and August, and the major months are April, May and September. (3) in the past 50 years, the northeast and North China increased the fastest in third ten years (1985-1994 years). The southwest of Southern China, central China, southwest and northwest has the fastest warming in fourth ten years (1995-2004 years). In the past 1975-1984 years, the temperature of North China, central China and East China declined, and the temperature of most stations in China declined in the last 2005-2014 years. In the area of precipitation, the northwest region of China has generally increased in the past 50 years. The precipitation in the West and North China is decreasing continuously. Precipitation in the southeast of northeast and Southern China regions, in the northern part of central China and in the coastal areas of North China have decreased in nearly twenty years. (4) in the 1992-2011 years, China suffered frost damage from the overall reduction in East China, frost times decreased most, the main areas of Southern China and the northwest region increased as the frost times; chilling times overall increase, increase the Northeast chilling injury is most prominent in Southern China area in Central China increased times of chilling injury, reduce chilling injury times. (5) during 1992-2011, temperature in December -1 month of July in Northeast China, Southern China area decreased increased the area of low temperature disaster stations; (6) during 1992-2011, the winter wheat turning green stage in the northwest, early spring maize seedling early in the Northwest has increased in the warming from WFD stations in East China; January winter wheat growth period of rape, stop early bud stage was delayed in the region in January but suffered cold frost times less important reason.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：S42

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