發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-16 19:04

  本文選題：貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò) + 化工園區(qū)��； 參考：《中國(guó)安全生產(chǎn)科學(xué)技術(shù)》2017年12期

【摘要】：為了研究化工園區(qū)內(nèi)發(fā)生地震災(zāi)害后的事故演化過(guò)程,利用事故鏈模型對(duì)地震次生災(zāi)害演化過(guò)程進(jìn)行分析,并將其轉(zhuǎn)化為貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò),確定各節(jié)點(diǎn)的變量與狀態(tài)取值范圍;通過(guò)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)及專家經(jīng)驗(yàn)判斷分析,獲得貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)中各節(jié)點(diǎn)的條件概率;依據(jù)貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的推理策略,比較不同地震烈度下,各化工事故發(fā)生的后驗(yàn)概率值,并探討應(yīng)急救援的及時(shí)性對(duì)地震次生災(zāi)害發(fā)生概率的影響,從關(guān)鍵要素遏制化工事故的發(fā)生,采取針對(duì)性的應(yīng)對(duì)措施,盡可能的降低化工事故,有效的降低人員傷亡及財(cái)產(chǎn)損失。
[Abstract]:In order to study the evolution process of the earthquake disaster in the chemical industry park, the evolution process of the secondary earthquake disaster is analyzed by using the accident chain model, and the Bayesian network is transformed into the Bayesian network to determine the range of variables and state values of each node.The conditional probability of each node in Bayesian network is obtained through the analysis of relevant literature and expert experience. According to the inference strategy of Bayesian network, the posteriori probabilities of chemical accidents under different earthquake intensity are compared.This paper also discusses the influence of the timeliness of emergency rescue on the probability of secondary earthquake disasters, and from the key elements to contain the occurrence of chemical accidents, take targeted measures to reduce the chemical accidents as far as possible.Effectively reduce casualties and property losses.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)安全生產(chǎn)科學(xué)研究院;北京化工大學(xué)化學(xué)工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2016YFC0801500)
【分類號(hào)】：TQ086

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1 葉泰來(lái)，楊林根;化工企業(yè)地震次生災(zāi)害及對(duì)策[J];現(xiàn)代化工;1994年05期

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本文編號(hào)：1760205