本文選題：報(bào)警數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理　出處：《華東理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：化工事故發(fā)生頻率低,但引發(fā)后果嚴(yán)重。分析化工過(guò)程中存在的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有利于加強(qiáng)化工生產(chǎn)過(guò)程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理,從而減小化工事故發(fā)生的概率。基于化工事故數(shù)據(jù)的傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法由于事故數(shù)據(jù)不足而無(wú)法有效的運(yùn)用于生產(chǎn)實(shí)踐中。未遂事件是化工事故的先兆,未遂事件高頻發(fā)生預(yù)示著化工事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加。在化工生產(chǎn)過(guò)程中,集散控制系統(tǒng)(DCS)和緊急停車(chē)系統(tǒng)(ESD)報(bào)警數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)中記錄了大量未遂事件,這些未遂事件數(shù)據(jù)包含了大量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)信息。通過(guò)對(duì)報(bào)警數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)中的數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析可實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)生產(chǎn)過(guò)程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估。 本文針對(duì)化工生產(chǎn)過(guò)程風(fēng)險(xiǎn),基于報(bào)警數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù),提出一種化工過(guò)程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)動(dòng)態(tài)分析方法。該方法以貝葉斯理論以及copula理論為理論基礎(chǔ)建立模型,分別從頻率以及概率的角度動(dòng)態(tài)描述化工過(guò)程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變化。在頻率方面,本文將化工過(guò)程操作班組倒班特點(diǎn)融合到模型中,基于歷史報(bào)警數(shù)據(jù),預(yù)測(cè)某個(gè)班組在值班期間的未遂事件頻率。當(dāng)未遂事件頻率越高,說(shuō)明未遂事件發(fā)展成為化工事故的可能性越大。在概率方面,針對(duì)化工過(guò)程關(guān)鍵變量,考慮變量之間相關(guān)性,基于歷史未遂事件動(dòng)態(tài)評(píng)估各級(jí)未遂事件發(fā)生概率,從而評(píng)估出化工事故發(fā)生概率。采用該方法預(yù)測(cè)的未遂事件預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果以及評(píng)估得到的化工事故發(fā)生概率客觀的反映了化工過(guò)程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平,可被用做風(fēng)險(xiǎn)參考指標(biāo),提高化工過(guò)程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理水平,提高化工過(guò)程安全性。
[Abstract]:The frequency of chemical accidents is low, but the consequences are serious. The traditional risk analysis method based on chemical accident data can not be effectively used in production practice because of the shortage of accident data. The attempted accident is a precursor of chemical accident. The high frequency occurrence of the attempted incident indicates an increase in the risk of chemical accident. In the chemical production process, a large number of attempted incidents have been recorded in the alarm database of the distributed Control system (DCS) and the Emergency parking system (ESDs). The data of these attempted events contain a lot of risk information. The risk assessment of production process can be realized by statistical analysis of the data in the alarm database. This paper presents a dynamic analysis method of chemical process risk based on alarm database, which is based on Bayesian theory and copula theory. The paper describes the risk change of chemical process from the angle of frequency and probability respectively. In terms of frequency, this paper integrates the shift characteristics of chemical process operation shift into the model, and based on the historical alarm data, The higher the frequency of attempted incident is, the more likely the attempted incident is to develop into a chemical accident. In the aspect of probability, considering the key variables of chemical process, the correlation between variables is considered. Based on the dynamic evaluation of the probability of attempted events at all levels, Thus, the probability of chemical accident occurrence is evaluated. The predicted result of attempted incident and the probability of chemical accident obtained by this method can objectively reflect the risk level of chemical process, and can be used as a risk reference index. Improve the risk management level of chemical process and improve the safety of chemical process.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TQ02;TP311.13

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