【摘要】：海洋中,在周期性潮流動力條件下,區(qū)域間的水體交換可近似認為滿足馬爾科夫性,利用該性質(zhì),可以快速有效地預測區(qū)域間的水交換問題。該文以渤海遼河口為研究區(qū)域,通過粒子跟蹤方法得到區(qū)域間的概率傳輸矩陣,根據(jù)馬爾科夫性,利用概率傳輸矩陣對遼河口水交換進行預測。研究表明,利用概率傳輸矩陣預測得到的水交換結(jié)果不僅與直接數(shù)值模擬吻合良好,還可極大縮減水體交換的計算模擬時間,因此對于長周期的預測,馬爾科夫傳輸矩陣法比直接數(shù)值模擬更合理。
[Abstract]:In the ocean, under the condition of periodic tidal current dynamics, the water exchange between regions can be approximately considered to satisfy Markov property, and the problem of water exchange between regions can be predicted quickly and effectively by using this property. In this paper, the probability transfer matrix between regions is obtained by particle tracking method, and the probabilistic transfer matrix is used to predict the water exchange in Liaohe estuary according to Markov property. The results show that the water exchange results predicted by probabilistic transfer matrix are not only in good agreement with the direct numerical simulation, but also can greatly reduce the simulation time of water exchange. Therefore, Markov transfer matrix method is more reasonable than direct numerical simulation for long period prediction.
【作者單位】： 中國海洋大學海洋環(huán)境與生態(tài)教育部重點實驗室;
【基金】：國家重點基礎(chǔ)研究發(fā)展計劃項目(2015CB453301) 國家水體污染控制與治理科技重大專項(2013ZX07202-007)~~
【分類號】：P731.2
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本文編號：2509574