廢黃河三角洲海岸演變及侵蝕脆弱性評估
發(fā)布時間：2019-06-13 13:34
【摘要】：蘇北廢黃河三角洲自1 855年黃河北歸入海之后,成為我國海岸侵蝕最為嚴重的區(qū)域之一。了解廢黃河三角洲的演變規(guī)律,不僅可以給廢黃河三角洲海岸侵蝕防護提供參考,同時也可以對其他三角洲,尤其是現(xiàn)代黃河三角洲的演變規(guī)律和侵蝕防護提供借鑒,因而廢黃河三角洲演變研究一直都是三角洲海岸侵蝕防護研究的熱點。對廢黃河三角洲海岸侵蝕脆弱性評估,了解不同岸段侵蝕脆弱性現(xiàn)狀,可以為廢黃河三角洲海岸侵蝕防護,海岸帶資源開發(fā)利用、海岸帶規(guī)劃管理決策等提供參考。本文以多期遙感圖像、海圖資料、前人研究成果以及野外實測資料為主要數(shù)據(jù)源,結合遙感(RS)、地理信息系統(tǒng)技術(GIS)和數(shù)字海岸分析系統(tǒng)(DSAS),研究廢黃河三角洲海岸演變特征。根據(jù)研究區(qū)特點,選取岸線變化速率、等深線變化速率兩個海岸動態(tài)因子,岸灘坡度、水下坡度、沉積動力環(huán)境三個海岸形態(tài)因子,年平均含沙量、年平均高潮位兩個水動力因子,以及海岸利用類型、海岸開發(fā)適宜性兩個社會經(jīng)濟因子等9個評估指標,并用層次分析法(AHP)求得各指標權重,構建海岸侵蝕脆弱性評估體系。最后,通過計算海岸侵蝕脆弱性指數(shù)(CVI)對廢黃河三角洲海岸侵蝕脆弱性進行評估。研究結果表明：(1)廢黃河三角洲形成和演變主要分五個階段：發(fā)育前期、緩慢發(fā)育期、快速發(fā)育期、沙洲并陸調整期以及侵蝕后退期。(2)廢黃河三角洲現(xiàn)代侵蝕后退演變具有以下特征：①岸線侵蝕后退速率逐年減弱,1855年之后的幾十年岸線侵蝕速率可達幾百米每年,目前已經(jīng)降低為幾米～幾十米每年；②受岸堤及護岸工程等的影響,岸線后退基本得到控制,但水下岸坡卻有侵蝕加劇的趨勢,尤以15m以淺等深線向岸逼近最為明顯,水下三角洲幾乎已經(jīng)被夷平；③不同岸段受地形、動力水沙條件不同,侵蝕特征略有差異,廢黃河口-扁擔港口岸段侵蝕最為嚴重,向南北兩側,侵蝕強度減弱。(3)6個固定斷面監(jiān)測結果表明：靠近廢黃河口的SB3和SB4兩個斷面1989年之后水下岸坡后退速率較快；中山河口以西的斷面起伏較大,具有明顯的沖刷深槽,而中山河口以東的SB2斷面水下岸坡則后退不明顯,并且具有夏沖冬淤的特點；振東河口以南的SB5和SB6斷面則表現(xiàn)出明顯的上淤下沖特征。(4)GM(1,1)可以較為準確的預測廢黃河三角洲中短期岸線演變。堤壩修正后,岸線預測精度得以提高。河口岸段以及近期發(fā)生潰堤的岸段,GM(1,1)預測精度較差。到2025年,廢黃河三角洲將有近三分之一海岸的岸灘全部位于平均高潮線以下,亟需對原有堤壩進行加固或修建護岸工程。(5)海岸侵蝕脆弱性評估結果表明：①廢黃河三角洲海岸整體脆弱性較高,高脆弱性主要分布在中山河口.新生港、黃河口尖附近及振東河口-扁擔港口岸段；②泥沙來源斷絕是廢黃河三角洲較高脆弱性的根本原因,海平面上升引起的風暴潮頻率增加、潮流和波浪增強使得海岸侵蝕加劇,人類活動如灘涂圍墾、港口建設、堤壩修建等逐漸成為影響其海岸侵蝕脆弱性分布的主導。
[Abstract]:The Yellow River Delta in Northern Jiangsu is one of the most serious areas of the coastal erosion of China after the Yellow River is returned to the sea in the north of the Yellow River in the first 855 years. It can not only provide reference for the erosion protection of the coastal erosion of the Yellow River Delta, but also provide reference for the evolution law and the erosion protection of other deltas, especially the modern Yellow River Delta. Therefore, the research of the evolution of the waste Yellow River Delta has been a hot spot of the research on the erosion protection of the delta coast. On the basis of the assessment of the erosion vulnerability of the coastal erosion of the Yellow River Delta, the present situation of the erosion vulnerability of the different shore sections can be found, which can provide reference for the erosion protection of the coastal erosion of the Yellow River Delta, the development and utilization of the coastal resources and the management and management of the coastal zone. In this paper, the characteristics of the coastal evolution of the Yellow River Delta are studied by using the multi-phase remote sensing image, the chart data, the previous research results and the field measured data as the main data sources, combining the remote sensing (RS), the geographic information system (GIS) and the digital coast analysis system (DSAS). according to the characteristics of the study area, the two coastal dynamic factors, the shore beach slope, the underwater slope, the sedimentary dynamic environment, the three coastal morphological factors, the annual average sediment concentration, the annual mean high tide level and the two water power factors, and the coastal utilization type are selected according to the characteristics of the study area, Nine evaluation indexes, such as the two socio-economic factors of the suitability of the coastal development, were determined by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the evaluation system of the coastal erosion vulnerability was constructed. Finally, the vulnerability of the coastal erosion of the Yellow River Delta was assessed by the calculation of the coastal erosion vulnerability index (CVI). The results showed that: (1) The formation and evolution of the Yellow River Delta was mainly divided into five stages: the early stage of development, the slow development stage, the rapid development stage, the sandbank and the land-land adjustment period and the erosion-back period. (2) The evolution of the modern erosion of the waste Yellow River Delta has the following characteristics: the erosion rate of the erosion of the coastline of the Yellow River Delta has been reduced year by year, and the erosion rate of the shoreline for several decades after 1855 has been reduced to a few hundred meters a year, and it has been reduced to several meters to several tens of meters a year; it is affected by the bank and the bank protection works, etc. The reverse of the shoreline is basically controlled, but there is a tendency of the erosion of the underwater bank slope, especially 15 m, which is the most obvious in the shallow and deep line, and the underwater delta is almost completely flattened; the different shore sections are affected by the terrain and the dynamic water and sand conditions, and the erosion characteristics are slightly different. The erosion intensity of the waste yellow river mouth and the shore section of the flat-arm port is the most serious, and the erosion intensity is reduced to both sides of the north and south. (3) The results of the six fixed-section monitoring show that the backward velocity of the underwater bank slope is faster after the two sections of SB3 and SB4 close to the waste yellow river mouth, and the section of the west of the Zhongshan River mouth has a large fluctuation, and has obvious scouring deep groove. However, the SB5 and SB6 sections in the south of the Zhendong estuary show obvious upsiltation characteristics. (4) GM (1,1) can accurately predict the evolution of short-term shoreline in the waste Yellow River Delta. After the dam is revised, the prediction accuracy of the shoreline is improved. The prediction accuracy of GM (1,1) is poor in the river port and the recent bank segment. By 2025, the Yellow River Delta will have nearly one-third of the land on the coast below the average high tide line, and there is an urgent need to reinforce or build the revetment work for the original dam. (5) The assessment of the vulnerability of the coastal erosion shows that the overall vulnerability of the coast of the Yellow River Delta is high, and the high vulnerability is mainly distributed in the mouth of Zhongshan. It is the root cause of the higher vulnerability of the Yellow River Delta, the increase of the frequency of storm surge caused by sea level rise, the increase of the tidal current and the wave, the increase of the coastal erosion, the human activities such as the reclamation of the tidal flat, The construction of the port, the construction of the dam and so on gradually become the main factor in the distribution of the vulnerability of the coastal erosion.
【學位授予單位】：華東師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P737.1
本文編號：2498564
[Abstract]:The Yellow River Delta in Northern Jiangsu is one of the most serious areas of the coastal erosion of China after the Yellow River is returned to the sea in the north of the Yellow River in the first 855 years. It can not only provide reference for the erosion protection of the coastal erosion of the Yellow River Delta, but also provide reference for the evolution law and the erosion protection of other deltas, especially the modern Yellow River Delta. Therefore, the research of the evolution of the waste Yellow River Delta has been a hot spot of the research on the erosion protection of the delta coast. On the basis of the assessment of the erosion vulnerability of the coastal erosion of the Yellow River Delta, the present situation of the erosion vulnerability of the different shore sections can be found, which can provide reference for the erosion protection of the coastal erosion of the Yellow River Delta, the development and utilization of the coastal resources and the management and management of the coastal zone. In this paper, the characteristics of the coastal evolution of the Yellow River Delta are studied by using the multi-phase remote sensing image, the chart data, the previous research results and the field measured data as the main data sources, combining the remote sensing (RS), the geographic information system (GIS) and the digital coast analysis system (DSAS). according to the characteristics of the study area, the two coastal dynamic factors, the shore beach slope, the underwater slope, the sedimentary dynamic environment, the three coastal morphological factors, the annual average sediment concentration, the annual mean high tide level and the two water power factors, and the coastal utilization type are selected according to the characteristics of the study area, Nine evaluation indexes, such as the two socio-economic factors of the suitability of the coastal development, were determined by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the evaluation system of the coastal erosion vulnerability was constructed. Finally, the vulnerability of the coastal erosion of the Yellow River Delta was assessed by the calculation of the coastal erosion vulnerability index (CVI). The results showed that: (1) The formation and evolution of the Yellow River Delta was mainly divided into five stages: the early stage of development, the slow development stage, the rapid development stage, the sandbank and the land-land adjustment period and the erosion-back period. (2) The evolution of the modern erosion of the waste Yellow River Delta has the following characteristics: the erosion rate of the erosion of the coastline of the Yellow River Delta has been reduced year by year, and the erosion rate of the shoreline for several decades after 1855 has been reduced to a few hundred meters a year, and it has been reduced to several meters to several tens of meters a year; it is affected by the bank and the bank protection works, etc. The reverse of the shoreline is basically controlled, but there is a tendency of the erosion of the underwater bank slope, especially 15 m, which is the most obvious in the shallow and deep line, and the underwater delta is almost completely flattened; the different shore sections are affected by the terrain and the dynamic water and sand conditions, and the erosion characteristics are slightly different. The erosion intensity of the waste yellow river mouth and the shore section of the flat-arm port is the most serious, and the erosion intensity is reduced to both sides of the north and south. (3) The results of the six fixed-section monitoring show that the backward velocity of the underwater bank slope is faster after the two sections of SB3 and SB4 close to the waste yellow river mouth, and the section of the west of the Zhongshan River mouth has a large fluctuation, and has obvious scouring deep groove. However, the SB5 and SB6 sections in the south of the Zhendong estuary show obvious upsiltation characteristics. (4) GM (1,1) can accurately predict the evolution of short-term shoreline in the waste Yellow River Delta. After the dam is revised, the prediction accuracy of the shoreline is improved. The prediction accuracy of GM (1,1) is poor in the river port and the recent bank segment. By 2025, the Yellow River Delta will have nearly one-third of the land on the coast below the average high tide line, and there is an urgent need to reinforce or build the revetment work for the original dam. (5) The assessment of the vulnerability of the coastal erosion shows that the overall vulnerability of the coast of the Yellow River Delta is high, and the high vulnerability is mainly distributed in the mouth of Zhongshan. It is the root cause of the higher vulnerability of the Yellow River Delta, the increase of the frequency of storm surge caused by sea level rise, the increase of the tidal current and the wave, the increase of the coastal erosion, the human activities such as the reclamation of the tidal flat, The construction of the port, the construction of the dam and so on gradually become the main factor in the distribution of the vulnerability of the coastal erosion.
【學位授予單位】：華東師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P737.1
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