【摘要】：進入21世紀，海洋戰(zhàn)略逐漸受到了黨和國家的重視，黨的十八大報告把建設海洋強國上升到國家戰(zhàn)略。近年來沿海地區(qū)也積極響應國家戰(zhàn)略，紛紛提出了建設海洋強省強市的規(guī)劃，加快海洋經(jīng)濟建設。然而由于沿海地區(qū)具有不同的自然資源稟賦、宏觀經(jīng)濟基礎、海洋科技水平、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)特征等要素，導致地區(qū)之間海洋經(jīng)濟發(fā)展差距日益顯著，各地區(qū)的海洋經(jīng)濟發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)出明顯的強弱分化的趨勢，不利于全國海洋經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。目前學術(shù)界還未對如何縮小區(qū)域海洋經(jīng)濟差異性提出有效的方法，對此問題的研究具有重要的理論和實踐意義。本文從收斂性的角度來理解區(qū)域海洋經(jīng)濟的差距變化，用系統(tǒng)的數(shù)量經(jīng)濟學方法，針對我國海洋經(jīng)濟增長的收斂性和動態(tài)演進等問題，進行了實證研究。本文的貢獻主要集中在以下幾個方面： 首先，借鑒陸域經(jīng)濟收斂的理論基礎和研究方法，首次提出“海洋經(jīng)濟增長收斂性”的概念，通過σ收斂、MLD指數(shù)、基尼系數(shù)三種指數(shù)分析方法，對我國海洋經(jīng)濟增長收斂性進行初步檢驗。實證結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，1996-2011年我國沿海地區(qū)海洋經(jīng)濟增長的收斂特征具有階段性：1996-2011年整體收斂特征并不顯著，1996-2001年不存在收斂性，2001-2006年收斂性無法確定，，2006-2011年存在有顯著的收斂性，此期間區(qū)域海洋經(jīng)濟的差距不斷縮小。 其次，利用回歸分析方法和面板數(shù)據(jù)模型，進一步驗證得到2006-2011年我國海洋經(jīng)濟存在有顯著的絕對收斂性和條件收斂性，海洋科技水平不僅對沿海地區(qū)海洋經(jīng)濟發(fā)展起到促進作用，也是導致條件收斂的重要影響因素。進一步引入地區(qū)虛擬變量，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)地區(qū)因素對海洋經(jīng)濟增長速度的影響并不顯著。采用固定效應變系數(shù)的靜態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型，實證結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)我國海洋經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平與收斂速度之間具有較為明顯的負相關(guān)關(guān)系，落后地區(qū)的收斂速度更快，表現(xiàn)出不斷追趕發(fā)達地區(qū)的趨勢。采用動態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型，通過GMM估計方法測算出1996-2011年及2006-2011年海洋經(jīng)濟增長的收斂速度分別為1.72%、4.32%，相比截面回歸分析方法和靜態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型的回歸結(jié)果更合理，更接近于現(xiàn)實。 最后，采用非參數(shù)估計方法，仿真模擬我國沿海地區(qū)海洋經(jīng)濟增長的動態(tài)演進過程，更準確地驗證了收斂特征的階段性。通過選取不同的樣本數(shù)據(jù)，對我國海洋經(jīng)濟總量水平、相對水平的分布進行非參數(shù)密度估計，運用R語言軟件繪制出高斯核密度估計圖，探討1996-2011年我國沿海地區(qū)海洋經(jīng)濟增長的動態(tài)演進過程，并對未來的收斂趨勢進行了預測。
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, the marine strategy has been paid more and more attention by the party and the state, and the report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) has raised the building of a strong marine power to the national strategy. In recent years, coastal areas have also responded positively to the national strategy, and have put forward plans to build strong marine provinces and cities to speed up the construction of marine economy. However, due to the different natural resource endowment, macroeconomic foundation, marine science and technology level, industrial structure characteristics and other factors in coastal areas, the gap in marine economic development between regions is becoming more and more significant. The development of marine economy in various regions shows an obvious trend of strong and weak differentiation, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of marine economy in China. At present, the academic circles have not put forward effective methods on how to reduce the differences of regional marine economy, and the research on this problem is of great theoretical and practical significance. This paper understands the gap change of regional marine economy from the point of view of convergence, and makes an empirical study on the convergence and dynamic evolution of marine economic growth in China by using the systematic quantitative economics method. The contributions of this paper are mainly focused on the following aspects: first of all, referring to the theoretical basis and research methods of land economic convergence, the concept of "convergence of marine economic growth" is put forward for the first time, and the concept of "convergence of marine economic growth" is put forward for the first time. Three exponential analysis methods of Gini coefficient are used to test the convergence of marine economic growth in China. The empirical results show that the convergence characteristics of marine economic growth in coastal areas of China from 1996 to 2011 are phased: the overall convergence characteristics from 1996 to 2011 are not significant, there is no convergence in 1996 / 2001, and the convergence is uncertain from 2001 to 2006. There is significant convergence in 2006 / 2011, and the gap between regional marine economy is narrowing during this period. Secondly, by using regression analysis method and panel data model, it is further verified that there is significant absolute convergence and conditional convergence in China's marine economy from 2006 to 2011. The level of marine science and technology not only promotes the development of marine economy in coastal areas, but also plays an important role in influencing the convergence of conditions. Furthermore, the regional virtual variables are introduced, and the results show that the influence of regional factors on the growth rate of marine economy is not significant. Using the static panel data model with fixed effect variable coefficient, the empirical results show that there is an obvious negative correlation between the development level of marine economy and the convergence speed in China, and the convergence rate in backward areas is faster. It shows the trend of continuously catching up with the developed areas. Using the dynamic panel data model and GMM estimation method, the convergence rate of marine economic growth in 1996-2011 and 2006-2011 is 1.72% and 4.32%, respectively. Compared with the cross section regression analysis method and the static panel data model, the regression results are more reasonable and closer to reality. Finally, the nonparametric estimation method is used to simulate the dynamic evolution process of marine economic growth in coastal areas of China, and the stage of convergence characteristics is verified more accurately. By selecting different sample data, the nonparametric density estimation of the total level and relative level distribution of marine economy in China is carried out, and the kernel density estimation diagram of Gao Si is drawn by using R language software. This paper discusses the dynamic evolution process of marine economic growth in coastal areas of China from 1996 to 2011, and forecasts the convergence trend in the future.
【學位授予單位】：中國海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：P74

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