發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-05-22 04:18

【摘要】：風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害位居我國海洋災(zāi)害之首。經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá),人口稠密的長江口及鄰近區(qū)域,每年都受到風(fēng)暴潮的襲擊,承受巨大的損失。因此,對(duì)風(fēng)暴潮預(yù)報(bào)模式的研究具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文基于ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation Model for Oceanic, Coastal and Estuarine Waters)有限元二維水動(dòng)力模型,雙向耦合SWAN模型,建立了適用于長江口及鄰近海區(qū)的風(fēng)暴潮預(yù)報(bào)模式。模式采用無結(jié)構(gòu)網(wǎng)格,能夠較好地?cái)M合淺水及近岸地區(qū)復(fù)雜的水深和岸界；在長江口區(qū)域沿岸空間步長為l00m。在計(jì)算過程中,完整地考慮了風(fēng)暴潮、天文潮、波浪、徑流的相互作用。利用實(shí)測(cè)資料,對(duì)模型計(jì)算的天文潮和波浪要素進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)和率定。 運(yùn)用所建立的風(fēng)暴潮計(jì)算模型,對(duì)1979-2008年間,嚴(yán)重影響長江口的23個(gè)臺(tái)風(fēng)及風(fēng)暴潮過程進(jìn)行了后報(bào)檢驗(yàn)。將各次風(fēng)暴潮過程的計(jì)算風(fēng)速、水位與實(shí)測(cè)資料進(jìn)行了比較,精度良好。根據(jù)臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑和登陸地點(diǎn)的不同對(duì)風(fēng)暴潮進(jìn)行分類,針對(duì)典型臺(tái)風(fēng)過程進(jìn)行了數(shù)值實(shí)驗(yàn),探討了在這兩類臺(tái)風(fēng)的增水過程中,氣壓、風(fēng)應(yīng)力、潮汐與風(fēng)暴潮非線性作用的貢獻(xiàn)。利用實(shí)測(cè)資料針對(duì)外高橋站增水強(qiáng)度、臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑位置、平均氣壓梯度的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,給出了臺(tái)風(fēng)移動(dòng)路徑、氣壓梯度和增水強(qiáng)度的定量關(guān)系。利用大戢山、灘滸島、外高橋三站的實(shí)測(cè)水位與潮汐資料分析了增水與潮汐相位的關(guān)系。 應(yīng)用此模型探討了海平面上升0.483m和1.0m后,東中國海的潮汐變化情況；通過模擬兩個(gè)不同路徑的臺(tái)風(fēng)(TC0012, TC0509)的數(shù)值實(shí)驗(yàn),對(duì)風(fēng)暴水位及波浪對(duì)海平面上升的響應(yīng)情況進(jìn)行了對(duì)比和分析。在長江口附近地區(qū),潮汐遲角普遍減��；振幅在長江口以北、呂泗以南有一個(gè)增大區(qū),長江口略微增大,杭州灣及以外地區(qū)減小。長江口區(qū)域破波帶隨海平面上升向近岸移動(dòng),波高顯著增加的區(qū)域與地形和臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑有關(guān)。不同臺(tái)風(fēng)影響下,長江口區(qū)域總水位及風(fēng)暴增水變化趨勢(shì)不一；峰值變化幅度在幾厘米到幾十厘米不等,不超過25cm。水位過程與風(fēng)暴增水過程有提前現(xiàn)象。相關(guān)結(jié)論均體現(xiàn)了海平面上升后,潮汐、波浪和風(fēng)暴潮變化的空間不均勻性和非線性特征。
[Abstract]:Storm surge disaster ranks first in marine disasters in China. Economically developed, the populous Changjiang Estuary and its adjacent areas are attacked by storm surges every year and bear great losses. Therefore, the study of storm surge prediction model is of great practical significance. Based on ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation Model for Oceanic, Coastal and Estuarine Waters) finite element two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and bidirectional coupling SWAN model, a storm surge prediction model suitable for the Changjiang Estuary and its adjacent sea area is established in this paper. The model adopts unstructured grid, which can fit the complex water depth and shore boundary of shallow water and inshore area, and the coastal space step size is l00m in the Changjiang Estuary. In the process of calculation, the interaction between storm surge, astronomical tide, wave and runoff is considered completely. Based on the measured data, the astronomical tide and wave elements calculated by the model are tested and calibrated. Based on the established storm surge calculation model, 23 typhoons and storm surge processes that seriously affected the Changjiang Estuary during 1979 / 2008 were tested. The calculated wind speed and water level of each storm surge process are compared with the measured data, and the accuracy is good. According to the classification of typhoon path and landing site, the numerical experiments are carried out on the typical typhoon process, and the contributions of air pressure, wind stress, tide and storm surge to the nonlinear effect of pressure, wind stress, tide and storm surge in the process of increasing water of these two kinds of typhoons are discussed. Based on the measured data, the relationship among water increasing intensity, typhoon path position and average pressure gradient of Waigaoqiao station is statistically analyzed, and the quantitative relationship between typhoon moving path, pressure gradient and water increasing intensity is given. The relationship between increased water level and tidal phase is analyzed by using the measured water level and tidal data of Dazhi Mountain, Beach margin Island and Waigaoqiao. The tidal variation in the East China Sea after sea level rise of 0.483m and 1.0m is discussed by using this model. The response of storm water level and wave to sea level rise is compared and analyzed by numerical experiments of typhoon (TC0012, TC0509) with two different paths. In the vicinity of the Yangtze Estuary, the tidal delay angle generally decreases, and the amplitude increases in the north of the Changjiang Estuary and south of Lusi, slightly increases in the Changjiang Estuary and decreases in Hangzhou Bay and beyond. The broken wave zone in the Changjiang Estuary moves to the inshore with the rise of sea level, and the area where the wave height increases significantly is related to the topography and typhoon path. Under the influence of different typhoons, the variation trend of total water level and storm water increase in the Changjiang Estuary is different, and the variation range of peak value ranges from several centimeters to tens of centimeters, not more than 25 cm. The process of water level and the process of increasing water by storm have the phenomenon of advance. The related conclusions reflect the spatial inhomogeneity and nonlinear characteristics of tide, wave and storm surge after sea level rise.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：P731.23

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