【摘要】：隨著社會現(xiàn)代化進程的加快和能源消費的持續(xù)增長，能源需求缺口越來越大與化石能源儲量逐漸減少的矛盾日益突出。因此，儲量巨大、可再生、潔凈無污染的潮汐能也必將成為未來的重要能源形式。但是由于潮汐形成的內(nèi)在原因決定了潮汐具有日不均勻性和月內(nèi)不均勻性，導致了潮汐電站出力具有周期性、間歇性和波動性，而且潮汐以太陰日變化和人類以太陽日活動的差異，造成潮汐發(fā)電波動與人類需用負荷變化的不匹配。隨著海洋能源的大規(guī)模開發(fā)利用，有必要對潮汐發(fā)電系統(tǒng)的可靠性指標及計算進行研究，以便客觀評估潮汐發(fā)電對電力系統(tǒng)可靠性的貢獻。 本文計算缺電小時期望值(Hourly loss of load expectation)和電量不足期望值（Expected energy not served）兩個可靠性指標，來衡量潮汐發(fā)電系統(tǒng)的充裕度，，同時引入“電量過剩期望值（expectation energy over served)”指標，來衡量潮汐時變電源與時變負荷的匹配度，依此評估潮汐發(fā)電的可靠性。 在廣泛閱讀國內(nèi)外相關文獻、研究潮汐發(fā)電運行特性的基礎上，本文深入研究了潮汐發(fā)電的特點，建立了潮位預測與潮汐發(fā)電系統(tǒng)可靠性分析模型，研究了不同因素對潮汐發(fā)電可靠性的影響，完成的主要研究內(nèi)容有： (1)分析了潮汐成因與調(diào)和分析法理論依據(jù)，建立了基于最小二乘法的潮汐調(diào)和分析計算模型，依此對研究海域8760個潮汐實際觀測數(shù)據(jù)進行了潮位預測，得到了該海域全年潮位變化曲線。 (2)研究了潮汐發(fā)電的原理與運行特點，建立了潮汐電站庫水位計算模型，依據(jù)單庫雙向運行方式潮汐電站運行參數(shù)，獲得了潮汐電站庫水位過程線。在此基礎上，建立了潮汐電站時序工作水頭模型。 (3)研究了潮汐發(fā)電的工況特點，建立了機組出力模型、機組停運模型、時變負荷模型等，采用適合潮汐發(fā)電特點的序貫蒙特卡羅模擬法計算了潮汐發(fā)電EENS和HLOLE兩個可靠性指標和電量過剩期望值指標。研究比較了相同容量的常規(guī)機組、單庫單向發(fā)電模式、與常規(guī)機組聯(lián)合發(fā)電模式、機組數(shù)量增加、潮差變化等不同情況下可靠性指標的變化。 研究結果表明：潮汐發(fā)電可靠性極低、發(fā)電與負荷匹配度差、供電能力弱并且潮汐能利用率不高，但采取聯(lián)合發(fā)電模式等措施可以提高其發(fā)電的可靠性。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of social modernization and the continuous growth of energy consumption, the contradiction between the increasing gap of energy demand and the gradual decrease of fossil energy reserves is becoming more and more prominent. Therefore, the vast reserves, renewable, clean and pollution-free tidal energy will also become an important form of energy in the future. However, due to the inherent reasons of tidal formation, the diurnal and intra-monthly inhomogeneity of tide is determined, and the output of tidal power station is periodic, intermittent and fluctuating. Moreover, the diurnal variation of tidal etheria and the difference of human solar daily activity cause the undulation of tidal power generation mismatch with the change of human demand load. With the large-scale exploitation and utilization of ocean energy, it is necessary to study the reliability index and calculation of tidal power generation system in order to evaluate objectively the contribution of tidal generation to the reliability of power system. In this paper, two reliability indexes, (Hourly loss of load expectation) and (Expected energy not served), are calculated to measure the adequacy of tidal power generation system. At the same time, "the expected value of excess electricity" (expectation energy over served) index is introduced. In order to evaluate the reliability of tidal power generation, the matching degree between time-varying power supply and time-varying load is measured. In this paper, the characteristics of tidal power generation are deeply studied, and the tidal level prediction and the reliability analysis model of tidal power generation system are established on the basis of extensive reading of the relevant literatures at home and abroad and the study of the operational characteristics of tidal power generation. The influence of different factors on the reliability of tidal power generation is studied. The main research contents are as follows: (1) the causes of tide and the theoretical basis of harmonic analysis are analyzed, and the calculation model of tidal harmonic analysis based on least square method is established. According to this, the tidal level of 8760 tidal observations in the studied sea area is predicted, and the tidal level variation curve of the sea area in the whole year is obtained. (2) the principle and operation characteristics of tidal power generation are studied, and the water level calculation model of tidal power station is established. According to the operating parameters of tidal power station in two-way operation mode of single reservoir, the water level process line of tidal power station is obtained. On the basis of this, a time-sequence working head model of tidal power station is established. (3) the working condition characteristics of tidal power generation are studied, and the output model, shutdown model and time-varying load model of the unit are established. The sequential Monte Carlo simulation method suitable for tidal power generation is used to calculate the reliability indexes of EENS and HLOLE and the expected value of excess electricity in tidal power generation. In this paper, the reliability indexes of conventional units with the same capacity, unidirectional power generation mode with single storage, combined generation mode with conventional units, the increase of unit number and the variation of tide difference are studied and compared. The results show that the reliability of tidal power generation is very low, the matching degree between power generation and load is poor, the power supply capacity is weak and the utilization ratio of tidal energy is not high, but the reliability of power generation can be improved by means of joint generation mode.
【學位授予單位】：河北工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM612;P743.3

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