P-J遙相關(guān)型與西北太平洋海霧的關(guān)系
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-29 08:57
【摘要】：本文利用中國沿海臺站海霧觀測資料、ICOADS（International ComprehensiveOcean-Atmosphere Data Set）能見度觀測資料、GPCP降水和NCEP再分析資料等，研究了7月太平洋-日本遙相關(guān)型（Pacific-Japan teleconnection，P-J型）對千島群島以東海域海霧的影響，7月至8月黃渤海海霧頻數(shù)“驟降”現(xiàn)象與P-J型位相轉(zhuǎn)換的關(guān)系，最后還結(jié)合CMIP5模式預(yù)估了全球變暖背景下的西北太平洋海霧的可能變化趨勢。相關(guān)分析表明7月千島群島以東海霧指數(shù)與P-J指數(shù)相關(guān)性最好，達0.62并通過99%信度檢驗，且P-J型正位相年海洋大氣條件有利于海霧的形成。異常正負位相年合成分析表明正位相年西太副高偏北偏東，千島群島以東海域南風(fēng)偏強，水汽輻合；同時，，正位相年南風(fēng)以水平風(fēng)為主，而負位相年具有明顯垂直上升速度，在這種背景環(huán)流下有利于降低海洋大氣邊界層高度，加之正位相950hPa暖平流較強有利于強逆溫層的形成。正異常年渦度平流經(jīng)向輸送、負位相年緯向輸送的的分布特征表明渦度平流分布的差異是造成位勢高度場的差異可能原因�！澳显票膘F”的結(jié)構(gòu)可能與P-J型異常環(huán)流的位相以及黑潮延伸體海洋鋒對邊界層內(nèi)強迫有關(guān)。千島群島以東海霧指數(shù)與La Ni a關(guān)系的分析和P-J型指數(shù)與印度洋海盆模態(tài)的分析表明，P-J型遙相關(guān)是一種“大氣橋”聯(lián)系熱帶與中緯度，通過影響大氣環(huán)流影響千島群島以東海霧的變化。 季節(jié)內(nèi)P-J型位相轉(zhuǎn)換分析表明，P-J型是西太夏季大氣異常環(huán)流的主模態(tài)，其位相具有顯著的季節(jié)內(nèi)變化，穩(wěn)定的轉(zhuǎn)換半周期約4候。西太副高位置的季節(jié)內(nèi)變化對P-J型的形成有貢獻。菲律賓海西北向Rossby波能量傳播促使中緯度負渦度向西擴展，加之8月亞洲中高緯度位勢高度異常升高使黃渤海偏東風(fēng)分量加強。過去40多年中7月和8月之間西北太平洋大氣環(huán)流變化呈提前發(fā)生的趨勢，其促使年代際尺度P-J型位相轉(zhuǎn)換提前約2候，進而導(dǎo)致黃東海異常東風(fēng)提前發(fā)生。異常東風(fēng)促使向北的水汽輸送減少、黃東海近海面大氣層結(jié)穩(wěn)定性減弱等不適宜海霧生成和發(fā)展的氣象條件出現(xiàn)從而使霧季結(jié)束，所以年代際東風(fēng)異常提前可能是7、8月中國近海海霧頻數(shù)下降的主要原因。 結(jié)合CMIP5中15個模式的位勢高度、風(fēng)場、比濕和云水含量等變量的預(yù)估分析表明，21世紀下半葉P-J型負位相發(fā)生頻率可能較高，而副高向西北方向伸展可能是造成上述變化的原因之一；負位相環(huán)流型影響多種海洋氣象條件變化可能導(dǎo)致千島群島以東海域海霧頻數(shù)減少，海霧頻率高值區(qū)北移。
[Abstract]:Based on the observational data of, ICOADS (International ComprehensiveOcean-Atmosphere Data Set) visibility, GPCP precipitation and NCEP reanalysis of sea fog observed at coastal stations of China, the July Pacific to Japan teleconnection model (Pacific-Japan teleconnection,) is studied. The influence of P-J type) on sea fog in the sea east of Kuril Islands, and the relation between the phenomenon of "sudden drop" of fog frequency in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea from July to August and the phase transition of P-J type. Finally, combined with CMIP5 model, the possible trends of sea fog in the Northwest Pacific Ocean under the background of global warming are predicted. The correlation analysis shows that the correlation between fog index and P-J index in the East China Sea is the best in July, reaching 0.62 and passing the reliability test of 99%, and the marine atmosphere condition of P-J positive phase year is favorable to the formation of sea fog. The analysis of positive and negative phase years shows that the western-too subtropical high is north-east of the positive phase year, and the south wind is stronger in the sea area east of the Kuril Islands, and the water vapor converges. At the same time, the south wind is mainly horizontal wind in the positive phase year, while the vertical rising velocity is obvious in the negative phase year. Under this kind of background circulation, the height of the boundary layer of the ocean atmosphere is reduced, and the strong warm advection of the positive phase 950hPa is favorable to the formation of the strong inversion layer. The distribution characteristics of positive annual vorticity plain flow and negative phase annual zonal transport indicate that the difference of vorticity advection distribution is the possible cause of the difference of potential height field. The structure of "Nanyunbei Fog" may be related to the phase of P-J anomalous circulation and the forcing of the Kuroshio extensional oceanic front to the boundary layer. The analysis of the relationship between fog index and La Ni a in the East China Sea and the analysis of P-J type index and the mode of the Indian Ocean basin show that the P-J type teleconnection is a kind of "atmospheric bridge" connecting the tropics and mid-latitudes. The variation of fog in the East China Sea is affected by the influence of atmospheric circulation. The analysis of phase transition of P-J pattern in season shows that P-J type is the main mode of anomalous atmospheric circulation in the western Pacific summer. The phase of P-J pattern has significant variation in season, and the stable transition half period is about 4 hours. The intraseasonal variation of the West Pacific Subtropical High contributes to the formation of the P-J type. The energy propagation of the Rossby waves in the Philippines promotes the westward expansion of the negative vorticity in the mid-latitudes, and the anomalous elevation of the geopotential height in the mid-high latitudes of Asia in August strengthens the easterly component in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. In the past 40 years, the variation of atmospheric circulation in the Northwest Pacific Ocean occurred earlier than that in July and August, which led to the advance of the Interdecadal P-J type phase transition, which led to the occurrence of the anomalous easterly wind in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea earlier. The anomalous easterly wind causes the northward vapor transport to decrease, the stability of atmospheric stratification near the sea surface of the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea weakens, and other weather conditions that are not suitable for the formation and development of sea fog, thus bringing the fog season to an end. So the interdecadal easterly anomaly may be the main reason for the decrease of sea fog frequency in July and August. Combined with the prediction analysis of 15 models in CMIP5, such as potential height, wind field, specific humidity and cloud water content, the occurrence frequency of P-J negative phase may be higher in the second half of the 21st century. The extension of the subtropical high to the northwest may be one of the reasons for the above changes. The negative circulation pattern may result in the decrease of sea fog frequency and the northward shift of sea fog frequency in high value areas east of the Kuril Islands.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：P732
本文編號：2394620
[Abstract]:Based on the observational data of, ICOADS (International ComprehensiveOcean-Atmosphere Data Set) visibility, GPCP precipitation and NCEP reanalysis of sea fog observed at coastal stations of China, the July Pacific to Japan teleconnection model (Pacific-Japan teleconnection,) is studied. The influence of P-J type) on sea fog in the sea east of Kuril Islands, and the relation between the phenomenon of "sudden drop" of fog frequency in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea from July to August and the phase transition of P-J type. Finally, combined with CMIP5 model, the possible trends of sea fog in the Northwest Pacific Ocean under the background of global warming are predicted. The correlation analysis shows that the correlation between fog index and P-J index in the East China Sea is the best in July, reaching 0.62 and passing the reliability test of 99%, and the marine atmosphere condition of P-J positive phase year is favorable to the formation of sea fog. The analysis of positive and negative phase years shows that the western-too subtropical high is north-east of the positive phase year, and the south wind is stronger in the sea area east of the Kuril Islands, and the water vapor converges. At the same time, the south wind is mainly horizontal wind in the positive phase year, while the vertical rising velocity is obvious in the negative phase year. Under this kind of background circulation, the height of the boundary layer of the ocean atmosphere is reduced, and the strong warm advection of the positive phase 950hPa is favorable to the formation of the strong inversion layer. The distribution characteristics of positive annual vorticity plain flow and negative phase annual zonal transport indicate that the difference of vorticity advection distribution is the possible cause of the difference of potential height field. The structure of "Nanyunbei Fog" may be related to the phase of P-J anomalous circulation and the forcing of the Kuroshio extensional oceanic front to the boundary layer. The analysis of the relationship between fog index and La Ni a in the East China Sea and the analysis of P-J type index and the mode of the Indian Ocean basin show that the P-J type teleconnection is a kind of "atmospheric bridge" connecting the tropics and mid-latitudes. The variation of fog in the East China Sea is affected by the influence of atmospheric circulation. The analysis of phase transition of P-J pattern in season shows that P-J type is the main mode of anomalous atmospheric circulation in the western Pacific summer. The phase of P-J pattern has significant variation in season, and the stable transition half period is about 4 hours. The intraseasonal variation of the West Pacific Subtropical High contributes to the formation of the P-J type. The energy propagation of the Rossby waves in the Philippines promotes the westward expansion of the negative vorticity in the mid-latitudes, and the anomalous elevation of the geopotential height in the mid-high latitudes of Asia in August strengthens the easterly component in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. In the past 40 years, the variation of atmospheric circulation in the Northwest Pacific Ocean occurred earlier than that in July and August, which led to the advance of the Interdecadal P-J type phase transition, which led to the occurrence of the anomalous easterly wind in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea earlier. The anomalous easterly wind causes the northward vapor transport to decrease, the stability of atmospheric stratification near the sea surface of the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea weakens, and other weather conditions that are not suitable for the formation and development of sea fog, thus bringing the fog season to an end. So the interdecadal easterly anomaly may be the main reason for the decrease of sea fog frequency in July and August. Combined with the prediction analysis of 15 models in CMIP5, such as potential height, wind field, specific humidity and cloud water content, the occurrence frequency of P-J negative phase may be higher in the second half of the 21st century. The extension of the subtropical high to the northwest may be one of the reasons for the above changes. The negative circulation pattern may result in the decrease of sea fog frequency and the northward shift of sea fog frequency in high value areas east of the Kuril Islands.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：P732
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