【摘要】：我國(guó)作為海洋大國(guó),海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)在社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中占據(jù)了舉足輕重的地位,海洋漁業(yè)資源成為維系未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)健康的戰(zhàn)略資源。伴隨著海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)的飛速發(fā)展,海洋開(kāi)發(fā)活動(dòng)對(duì)漁業(yè)資源產(chǎn)生了巨大壓力和影響,開(kāi)發(fā)超載現(xiàn)象較為普遍,資源可持續(xù)再生能力加速喪失�，F(xiàn)存海洋漁業(yè)資源究竟能承受海洋開(kāi)發(fā)活動(dòng)多大的壓力已經(jīng)成為海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要課題,海域生態(tài)承載力作為量化這種承受限度的量對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要的理論價(jià)值和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。鑒于此背景,以可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論、承載力遞階理論、系統(tǒng)論為基礎(chǔ),梳理國(guó)內(nèi)外承載力研究進(jìn)展,總結(jié)海州灣自然環(huán)境、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和漁業(yè)生態(tài)概況,構(gòu)建漁業(yè)資源對(duì)海洋開(kāi)發(fā)活動(dòng)的生態(tài)承載力分析理論框架。主要研究?jī)?nèi)容和成果如下:(1)海州灣海域漁業(yè)生態(tài)足跡模擬。利用漁業(yè)生態(tài)足跡的算法,對(duì)連云港近海2006-2015年的生態(tài)足跡進(jìn)行計(jì)算,研究了海州灣漁業(yè)生態(tài)現(xiàn)狀。在此基礎(chǔ)上,依據(jù)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)(System Dynamics,SD)原理,嵌入營(yíng)養(yǎng)動(dòng)態(tài)模式,構(gòu)建了海州灣海域漁業(yè)生態(tài)足跡SD模型。利用2006-2015年的歷史漁業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)驗(yàn)證該模型是可行的,并運(yùn)用模型預(yù)測(cè)了不同捕撈強(qiáng)度下海州灣漁業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展模式。2006-2015年海州灣近海漁業(yè)生態(tài)足跡由1.8251×106hm2增長(zhǎng)到1.9301×106hm2,平均值為1.8491×106hm2,海州灣海域已處于不可持續(xù)的發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)中;根據(jù)模型仿真分析,如果進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)捕撈強(qiáng)度,漁業(yè)生態(tài)足跡會(huì)急劇下降,最終趨于0值,隨著加強(qiáng)程度的增大,生態(tài)足跡下降越快,趨于0值的時(shí)間也越短;通過(guò)海洋漁獲量閾值的計(jì)算,需要在目前捕撈強(qiáng)度下降低約50%,漁業(yè)生態(tài)足跡才能回升,生態(tài)赤字也能平穩(wěn)降低,從而防止?jié)O業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)崩潰。該結(jié)果可用于海州灣海域生態(tài)效應(yīng)的預(yù)警,預(yù)防漁業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)崩潰的情景出現(xiàn)。(2)圍填海對(duì)海州灣漁業(yè)生態(tài)承載力的影響為了量化圍填�；顒�(dòng)對(duì)海州灣生物資源承載力的累積性影響程度,統(tǒng)計(jì)了近年海州灣的圍填海數(shù)據(jù),計(jì)算了因圍填海影響的生態(tài)承載力。通過(guò)生態(tài)足跡法對(duì)圍填�；顒�(dòng)的累積性生態(tài)影響進(jìn)行宏觀評(píng)價(jià),以期為海州灣圍填海項(xiàng)目在生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)領(lǐng)域的健康進(jìn)行提供借鑒。結(jié)果表明,海州灣的生態(tài)承載力逐漸降低,而生態(tài)足跡在逐漸變大,已經(jīng)高于平均生態(tài)承載力0.2319×106hm2,約為承載力的8倍,生態(tài)赤字由2006年的-1.5928 hm2增長(zhǎng)到2015年的-1.6990 hm2。圍填海活動(dòng)進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大了海州灣的生態(tài)赤字,加重了海州灣生物資源的不可持續(xù)利用程度。(3)海州灣漁業(yè)生態(tài)承載力綜合評(píng)價(jià)。構(gòu)建海州灣漁業(yè)生態(tài)承載力評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,包括年海洋捕撈總量、圍填后海灣面積、常駐人口密度、人均GDP、恩格爾系數(shù)、漁業(yè)總產(chǎn)值、漁業(yè)勞動(dòng)力共計(jì)7個(gè)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),應(yīng)用模糊綜合評(píng)判模型,對(duì)海州灣2006-2014年間漁業(yè)生態(tài)承載力進(jìn)行了綜合評(píng)價(jià)。結(jié)果表明,除個(gè)別年份海州灣生態(tài)承載力綜合評(píng)分值對(duì)V2的隸屬度總體上大于V3與V1的隸屬度,說(shuō)明海州灣海洋開(kāi)發(fā)活動(dòng)已處于適載的臨界范圍,開(kāi)發(fā)潛力相對(duì)較小,綜合評(píng)分均低于0.5,且評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果對(duì)V1的隸屬度大于V3的隸屬度,表明海州灣生態(tài)承載力不容樂(lè)觀。海州灣生態(tài)承載力綜合評(píng)分值雖然有所上升,但對(duì)V1的隸屬度已經(jīng)超過(guò)V2的隸屬度,表明海州灣近年的承載力狀況堪憂,漁業(yè)資源的供需矛盾突出,在生物資源利用和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的協(xié)調(diào)方面需引起足夠重視。綜上所述,海州灣海洋開(kāi)發(fā)活動(dòng)對(duì)漁業(yè)資源生態(tài)承載力造成了影響,并隨著海洋開(kāi)發(fā)活動(dòng)的投入,影響程度持續(xù)加強(qiáng)。本生態(tài)承載力評(píng)價(jià)模型有助于彌補(bǔ)相關(guān)領(lǐng)域研究的不足,為緩解海州灣開(kāi)發(fā)與漁業(yè)資源利用的矛盾,實(shí)現(xiàn)生態(tài)、資源保護(hù)與社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供有益參考
[Abstract]:As a large marine country, China's marine economy plays an important role in the social and economic development. Marine fishery resources become a strategic resource to maintain the future economic and social health. How much pressure the existing marine fishery resources can withstand has become an important issue for the sustainable development of marine economy. As a quantitative measure of the ecological carrying capacity of the sea area, it has important theoretical value and practical significance for the sustainable development of the economy and society. Based on sustainable development theory, bearing capacity hierarchy theory and system theory, this paper reviews the research progress of carrying capacity at home and abroad, summarizes the general situation of natural environment, social economy and Fishery Ecology in Haizhou Bay, and constructs a theoretical framework for analyzing the ecological carrying capacity of fishery resources for marine development activities. Simulation of fishery ecological footprint in the Bay area. The ecological footprint of Lianyungang coastal waters from 2006 to 2015 was calculated by using the fishery ecological footprint algorithm, and the fishery ecological status of Haizhou Bay was studied. The fishery ecological footprint in Haizhou Bay increased from 1.8251 106 hm2 to 1.9301 106 hm2 in 2006-2015, with an average of 1.8491 6550 According to the model simulation analysis, if the fishing intensity is further strengthened, the fishery ecological footprint will drop sharply, and eventually reach zero value. With the increase of the degree of enhancement, the ecological footprint will decline faster and the time to reach zero value will be shorter. By calculating the catch threshold, the fishing intensity should be reduced by about 50% at present. The results can be used to warn the ecological effects of the Haizhou Bay and prevent the collapse of the fishery ecosystem. (2) The impact of reclamation on the fishery ecological carrying capacity of the Haizhou Bay to quantify the reclamation activities on the Haizhou Bay. The cumulative effect of reclamation on material resources carrying capacity is analyzed. The data of reclamation in Haizhou Bay in recent years are counted and the ecological carrying capacity affected by reclamation is calculated. The results show that the ecological carrying capacity of Haizhou Bay is gradually decreasing, while the ecological footprint is gradually increasing, which is already higher than the average ecological carrying capacity of 0.2319 6550 (3) Comprehensive evaluation of fishery ecological carrying capacity in Haizhou Bay. The evaluation index system of fishery ecological carrying capacity in Haizhou Bay was constructed, including annual total marine fishing, reclamation Bay area, resident population density, per capita GDP, Engel coefficient, fishery output value and fishery labor force. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate the fishery ecological carrying capacity of Haizhou Bay from 2006 to 2014. The results showed that the membership degree of the comprehensive evaluation value of the ecological carrying capacity of Haizhou Bay to V2 was higher than that of V3 and V1 except for individual years, indicating that the marine development activities of Haizhou Bay were in the critical range of suitable load and the development potential was relatively high. The results show that the ecological carrying capacity of Haizhou Bay is not optimistic. Although the comprehensive rating value of ecological carrying capacity of Haizhou Bay has increased, the membership degree of V1 has exceeded that of V2, indicating that the carrying capacity of Haizhou Bay in recent years is worrying, and the supply and demand of fishery resources is worrying. In summary, the marine development activities in Haizhou Bay have an impact on the ecological carrying capacity of fishery resources, and with the input of marine development activities, the impact continues to strengthen. The evaluation model of ecological carrying capacity is helpful to make up for the relevant research fields. The deficiencies provide useful reference for alleviating the contradiction between the exploitation of Haizhou Bay and the utilization of fishery resources, realizing the ecological, resource protection and the sustainable development of social economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F326.4;P74

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本文編號(hào)：2206030