【摘要】：在過去的三十幾年,中太平洋型的厄爾尼諾在全球變暖背景下越來越頻繁地出現(xiàn),并且其強(qiáng)度也越來越強(qiáng)。但是中太平洋型厄爾尼諾的模態(tài)特征還存在一些爭(zhēng)議。同時(shí),伴隨著厄爾尼諾的模態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)變,東亞夏季風(fēng)降水和北極的夏季氣候異常變得十分不同,而它們之間的聯(lián)系目前尚不完全清楚。本研究主要關(guān)注夏季熱帶太平洋海溫的年際變化特征及其與東亞和北極區(qū)域夏季年際氣候異常的聯(lián)系。論文的主要研究結(jié)論如下:一、重新審視了兩類厄爾尼諾的年際變化特征,并提出了一對(duì)新的Nino指數(shù)以改進(jìn)ENSO的實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)測(cè)首先利用一種叫作RC-REOF的聯(lián)合方法,分別從逐月和季節(jié)的角度重新審視了不同ENSO的主模態(tài)。得到以下新的認(rèn)識(shí):(1)東太平洋型ENSO和中太平洋型ENSO的解釋方差是大體相當(dāng)?shù)?分別在33-43%和23-28%范圍內(nèi)。(2)利用傳統(tǒng)EOF得到的El Nino Modoki的解釋方差只有11-12%,遠(yuǎn)小于東部型El Nino的解釋方差,這不符合近幾十年中部型ENSO頻繁發(fā)生的這一事實(shí)。(3)東部型ENSO和中部型ENSO的空間模態(tài)都是關(guān)于赤道非對(duì)稱的,這一點(diǎn)沒有被傳統(tǒng)的Nino指數(shù)考慮進(jìn)去。據(jù)此,這里推出一對(duì)新的Nino指數(shù),叫作Nino3b和Nino4b,它們具有以下優(yōu)點(diǎn):(1)計(jì)算簡(jiǎn)單,(2)和兩類ENSO模態(tài)的關(guān)系強(qiáng)且穩(wěn)定,(3)對(duì)太平洋年代際信號(hào)有較好的代表性,(4)易于實(shí)時(shí)區(qū)分ENSO的類型,(5)沒有數(shù)學(xué)上的正交限制,等。因此,Nino3b和Nino4b在科學(xué)研究和兩類ENSO的實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)測(cè)方面具有潛在的應(yīng)用價(jià)值。此外,還定義了 Nino3.4b指數(shù)用于描述混合型的ENSO事件,相比于Nino3.4指數(shù),它與兩類ENSO具有更加均等的協(xié)方差,并且也包含更多的年代際信號(hào)。二、揭示了中部型厄爾尼諾使得盛夏東亞季風(fēng)和降水減弱的物理機(jī)制研究表明東亞夏季風(fēng)和長(zhǎng)江流域盛夏降水異常的年際變化和中部型厄爾尼諾具有密切的聯(lián)系。通過對(duì)比分析中部型厄爾尼諾指數(shù)和東亞夏季風(fēng)指數(shù)的回歸或相關(guān)結(jié)果,我們揭示了中部型厄爾尼諾使得盛夏東亞季風(fēng)和長(zhǎng)江流域降水減弱的物理機(jī)制。對(duì)比分析結(jié)果表明,中部型厄爾尼諾可引起西太平洋整個(gè)對(duì)流層的顯著增暖,從而使得東亞-西太平洋之間的海陸熱差異減弱,進(jìn)而通過減弱東亞夏季風(fēng)環(huán)流(比如南亞高壓、西北太平洋副熱帶高壓、及南海-菲律賓海的低層反氣旋,等),最終改變對(duì)流層水汽輸送方向,導(dǎo)致長(zhǎng)江流域盛夏降水減少。中部型厄爾尼諾指數(shù)和東亞夏季風(fēng)指數(shù)還與太平洋-日本遙相關(guān)(或東亞-太平洋遙相關(guān))緊密聯(lián)系,這可能是東亞夏季風(fēng)降水年際變率的內(nèi)部動(dòng)力因素。并且,顯著的中太平洋拉尼娜型海溫異常模態(tài)可以直接由東亞夏季風(fēng)指數(shù)回歸得到,進(jìn)一步證明了中部型厄爾尼諾的確扮演著使東亞夏季風(fēng)降水減弱的重要角色。三、發(fā)現(xiàn)了變異的中部型厄爾尼諾能抑制夏季北極變暖和北極海冰融化夏季北極的變化不僅包括氣候態(tài)和氣候趨勢(shì)的變化,還包括強(qiáng)烈的年際變化。雖然熱帶-熱帶外遙相關(guān)對(duì)厄爾尼諾的變化很敏感是眾所周知的,但北極氣候的年際變率是否與厄爾尼諾的模態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)變有關(guān),目前尚不清楚。這里我們證明了中部型厄爾尼諾與夏季北極氣候之間存在大尺度遙相關(guān)關(guān)系:觀測(cè)結(jié)果表明中部型厄爾尼諾引起的中太平洋海溫增暖可導(dǎo)致夏季北極渦加深,和繞極西風(fēng)急流減弱,從而使得北極夏季變冷、海冰增加。大氣模式模擬的結(jié)果基本能捕捉到類似的北極環(huán)流響應(yīng)和強(qiáng)烈的北極變冷異常。據(jù)此我們認(rèn)為:(1)如果在全球變暖背景下不考慮中部型厄爾尼諾對(duì)北極增暖的抑制作用,夏季北極海冰的融化將更加劇烈;(2)這個(gè)赤道-北極遙相關(guān)的發(fā)現(xiàn)——通過"海洋記憶"和"大氣橋"作用——對(duì)提高北極氣候異常的預(yù)報(bào)具有潛在的貢獻(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:In the past three decades, the mid Pacific El Nino has appeared more and more frequently in the context of global warming, and its intensity is becoming stronger and stronger. However, there are still some controversies in the modal characteristics of the Middle Pacific type EL Nino, and the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation and the summer climate of the Arctic are different with the El Nino modal transformation. The relationship between the interannual variations of the tropical Pacific sea temperature in summer and the interannual climate anomalies in summer in East Asia and the Arctic region are mainly concerned. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the interannual variation of the two types of El Nino is reexamined. A new Nino index is proposed to improve the real-time monitoring of ENSO. First, a joint method called RC-REOF is first used to reexamine the main modes of different ENSO from a monthly and seasonal point of view. The following new understandings are obtained: (1) the explanatory variances of the eastern Pacific ENSO and the mid Pacific ENSO are roughly equivalent, respectively in 33-43% And within the range of 23-28%. (2) the explanatory variance of the El Nino Modoki obtained by the traditional EOF is only 11-12%, far less than the interpretation variance of the eastern El Nino, which does not conform to the fact that the central ENSO frequently occurs in recent decades. (3) the spatial modes of the Eastern ENSO and central ENSO are all about the equatorial asymmetries, and this is not traditional. The Nino index is taken into account. Here, a new pair of Nino exponents, called Nino3b and Nino4b, has the following advantages: (1) simple calculation, (2) strong and stable relations with the two ENSO modes, (3) a better representation of the Pacific interdecadal signals, (4) easy to distinguish the type of ENSO in real time, (5) no mathematical orthogonal constraints, etc. Therefore, Nino3b and Nino4b have potential application value in scientific research and real-time monitoring of two types of ENSO. In addition, the Nino3.4b index is also defined to describe mixed ENSO events. Compared with the Nino3.4 index, it has a more homogeneous covariance with the two class of ENSO and also contains more decadal signals. Two, revealing the central part. The study of the physical mechanism of the weakening of the East Asian monsoon and precipitation in the summer shows that the interannual variation of the East Asian summer monsoon and the anomaly of summer precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin is closely related to the middle type EL Nino. By comparing the regression and correlation results of the central El Nino index and the East Asian summer monsoon index, we reveal that The central type EL Nino makes the physical mechanism of the weakening of the precipitation in the East Asian monsoon and the Yangtze River Basin in the summer. The comparative analysis shows that the central El Nino can cause a significant warming of the whole troposphere in the Western Pacific, which makes the difference between the sea and land heat between East Asia and the West Pacific weaken and then weaken the East Asian summer monsoon circulation (for example, South). The subtropical high, the subtropical high in the Northwest Pacific and the low level anticyclone in the South China Sea and the Philippines sea eventually change the direction of the tropospheric water vapor transport, resulting in a decrease in the summer precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin. The central El Nino index and the East Asian summer monsoon index are also closely related to the Pacific Japan teleconnection (or the East Asia Pacific teleconnection). It is the internal dynamic factor of the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation. And the remarkable anomalous mode of the La Nina type sea temperature in the central Pacific can be directly regressed by the East Asian summer monsoon index. It is further proved that the central type EL Nino does play an important role in weakening the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation. Three, the central type of variation is found. Nino can suppress the summer Arctic warmer and Arctic sea ice melting in summer, which includes not only changes in climate and climate trends, but also strong interannual variations. Although tropical extratropical teleconnection is well known to the changes in El Nino, the interannual variability of the Arctic climate is associated with the El Nino mode. The transition is not clear. Here we prove that there is a large scale teleconnection between the central El Nino and the summer Arctic climate: observations show that the warming of the central Pacific Ocean temperature caused by the central El Nino can lead to the deepening of the Arctic vortex in summer and the weakening of the winds around the polar west wind, which makes the Arctic summer cold. Ice increases. The results of atmospheric model simulation can basically capture similar Arctic circulation responses and intense Arctic cooling anomalies. Accordingly, we think: (1) the melting of Arctic sea ice will be more intense in summer if it does not consider the inhibitory effect of central El Nino on Arctic warming in the context of global warming; (2) this equatorial Arctic tele phase Guan's discovery, through "ocean memory" and "atmospheric bridge" functions, has the potential to contribute to improving the prediction of Arctic climate anomalies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：P732;P461.2

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