北太平洋海表溫度變化及其對(duì)北極氣溫的影響
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-22 14:21
【摘要】：在過去幾十年里，北太平洋海表溫度（SST）隨著全球變暖也在發(fā)生著顯著的變化。本文利用Hadley中心SST資料、美國(guó)NCEP/NCAR再分析資料、日本JRA-25再分析資料以及法國(guó)衛(wèi)星海洋存檔數(shù)據(jù)中心Aviso的海表高度（SSH）觀測(cè)資料，并運(yùn)用多種統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法，分析了1949-2012年北太平洋海表溫度異常（SSTA）標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差的空間和時(shí)間分布。深入研究了由標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差時(shí)空分布引出的兩個(gè)方面內(nèi)容：第一是北太平洋SSTA與SSH之間的時(shí)空關(guān)系，以及SSTA與通過二維有限脈沖響應(yīng)（FIR）濾波器所得到SSH的各個(gè)分量之間的時(shí)空關(guān)系；第二是SSTA在冬季變化最劇烈的可能原因是與阿留申低壓存在有關(guān)，由此研究了冬季阿留申低壓協(xié)同后期北太平洋SSTA變化對(duì)北極夏季表面氣溫（SAT）的影響。主要結(jié)論如下： 1、利用二維FIR濾波器對(duì)TOPEX/Poseidon SSH資料進(jìn)行濾波處理，得到不同時(shí)間和空間尺度上的熱信號(hào)和波信號(hào)分量。研究了近20年北太平洋SSH及各個(gè)分量與SSTA之間的關(guān)系，結(jié)果顯示：幾乎整個(gè)北太平洋SSTA與海面高度觀測(cè)值（zori）有非常好的相關(guān)關(guān)系；在低緯度地區(qū)SSTA與兩年周期Rossby波（z24）關(guān)系最緊密；而在中緯度地區(qū)SSTA則與不傳播的海盆尺度熱信號(hào)（zt）相關(guān)關(guān)系最顯著。利用經(jīng)驗(yàn)正交函數(shù)（EOF）分解和相關(guān)分析等方法，進(jìn)一步研究了zori、zt、z24與SSTA之間的關(guān)系。結(jié)果顯示，SSTA EOF第一模態(tài)、zori EOF第二模態(tài)、zt EOF第二模態(tài)以及z24EOF第一模態(tài)均與ENSO存在緊密聯(lián)系。結(jié)合時(shí)間系數(shù)序列變化的整體趨勢(shì)和細(xì)節(jié)來看，z24EOF第一模態(tài)時(shí)間系數(shù)與ENSO的關(guān)系最明顯，且Ni o3.4指數(shù)與z24EOF第一模態(tài)時(shí)間系數(shù)相關(guān)關(guān)系高達(dá)-0.71。得到的結(jié)論進(jìn)一步揭示了北太平洋SSH與SSTA之間緊密的關(guān)系，而穩(wěn)定的兩年周期Rossby波信號(hào)可能比大氣或海洋中其它變量更利于監(jiān)測(cè)ENSO信號(hào)，，以及后續(xù)的預(yù)測(cè)研究。 2、通過定義新的阿留申低壓強(qiáng)度指數(shù)，發(fā)現(xiàn)冬季阿留申低壓與次年夏季北極SAT相關(guān)關(guān)系顯著，并給出了其中一種解釋機(jī)制。冬季阿留申低壓越弱，次年春季一直到夏季初期北太平洋中緯度海盆內(nèi)區(qū)SST偏高，導(dǎo)致春季、夏季平均經(jīng)圈環(huán)流和500pha位勢(shì)高度異常：中緯度地區(qū)有異常上升運(yùn)動(dòng)，異常下沉運(yùn)動(dòng)存在于高緯度地區(qū)，費(fèi)雷爾環(huán)流減弱，暖空氣從高層到低層向北輸送，使得北極SAT升高，同時(shí)，異常下沉運(yùn)動(dòng)絕熱增溫并且阻止地表熱量上傳亦對(duì)北極氣溫高有貢獻(xiàn)；另一方面中緯度地區(qū)位勢(shì)高度負(fù)異常，高緯度地區(qū)正異常，南低北高分布型有利于增加白令海峽入流體積通量，亦使北極地區(qū)SAT偏高。研究結(jié)果揭示了阿留申低壓年際變化對(duì)北極夏季SAT的調(diào)控作用，從而為北極地區(qū)甚至北半球的季節(jié)預(yù)測(cè)提供了一個(gè)較好的指示作用。
[Abstract]:In the past few decades, sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific Ocean has also changed significantly with global warming. In this paper, we use Hadley Center SST data, American NCEP / NCAR reanalysis data, Japan JRA-25 reanalysis data and sea surface altitude (SSH) observation data of Aviso, and use various statistical analysis methods. The spatial and temporal distributions of the SSTA standard deviation in the North Pacific Ocean from 1949 to 2012 are analyzed. Two aspects derived from the standard deviation spatiotemporal distribution are studied in detail. The first is the spatiotemporal relationship between SSTA and SSH in the North Pacific and the spatiotemporal relationship between SSTA and each component of SSH obtained by two-dimensional finite pulse response (Fir) filter. The second one is that the most severe variation of SSTA in winter is related to the existence of Aleutian low. The influence of SSTA variation in the North Pacific on the summer surface temperature (SAT) of the Arctic is studied. The main conclusions are as follows: 1. Using two-dimensional Fir filter to filter TOPEX / Poseidon SSH data, the thermal and wave components at different time and space scales are obtained. In this paper, we have studied the relationship between the (zori) of the North Pacific and its components in the last 20 years. The results show that there is a very good correlation between the (zori) and the observed values of sea surface height in almost all of the North Pacific. In the low latitudes, the correlation between SSTA and two-year periodic Rossby waves (z24) is the most close, while in the mid-latitudes, the correlation between SSTA and non-propagating basin-scale thermal signals (zt) is the most significant. By means of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and correlation analysis, the relationship between zorianztnz24 and SSTA is further studied. The results show that the first mode of SSTA EOF, zori EOF, the second mode of zt EOF, and the first mode of z24EOF are closely related to ENSO. The relationship between the first mode time coefficient of Z24EOF and ENSO is most obvious, and the correlation between Nio3.4 index and Z24EOF first mode time coefficient is as high as -0.71. The obtained results further reveal the close relationship between SSH and SSTA in the North Pacific, and the stable two-year periodic Rossby wave signal may be more conducive to the monitoring of ENSO signals than other variables in the atmosphere or ocean. 2. By defining the new Aleutian low pressure intensity index, it is found that the correlation between the winter Aleutian low pressure and the Arctic SAT in the following summer is significant, and an explanation mechanism is given. The weaker the Aleutian low in winter, the higher the SST in the mid-latitude basin of the North Pacific from the following spring to the beginning of summer, which leads to the anomaly of the mean meridional circulation and 500pha geopotential height in spring. Anomalous subsidence occurs in high latitudes, the Ferrer circulation weakens and warm air flows northward from the upper to the lower levels, which makes the Arctic SATs rise, at the same time, The adiabatic warming of abnormal subsidence motion and stopping the heat transfer from the surface also contribute to the high temperature of the Arctic; on the other hand, the negative anomaly of geopotential height in the mid-latitude region and the positive anomaly in the high latitude area, The south low and north high distribution type is beneficial to increase the Bering Strait inflow volume flux, and also makes the SAT higher in the Arctic region. The results reveal that the interannual variation of Aleutian depression regulates the Arctic summer SAT and thus provides a good indication for seasonal prediction in the Arctic and even in the Northern Hemisphere.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)氣象科學(xué)研究院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：P731.11;P461.2
[Abstract]:In the past few decades, sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific Ocean has also changed significantly with global warming. In this paper, we use Hadley Center SST data, American NCEP / NCAR reanalysis data, Japan JRA-25 reanalysis data and sea surface altitude (SSH) observation data of Aviso, and use various statistical analysis methods. The spatial and temporal distributions of the SSTA standard deviation in the North Pacific Ocean from 1949 to 2012 are analyzed. Two aspects derived from the standard deviation spatiotemporal distribution are studied in detail. The first is the spatiotemporal relationship between SSTA and SSH in the North Pacific and the spatiotemporal relationship between SSTA and each component of SSH obtained by two-dimensional finite pulse response (Fir) filter. The second one is that the most severe variation of SSTA in winter is related to the existence of Aleutian low. The influence of SSTA variation in the North Pacific on the summer surface temperature (SAT) of the Arctic is studied. The main conclusions are as follows: 1. Using two-dimensional Fir filter to filter TOPEX / Poseidon SSH data, the thermal and wave components at different time and space scales are obtained. In this paper, we have studied the relationship between the (zori) of the North Pacific and its components in the last 20 years. The results show that there is a very good correlation between the (zori) and the observed values of sea surface height in almost all of the North Pacific. In the low latitudes, the correlation between SSTA and two-year periodic Rossby waves (z24) is the most close, while in the mid-latitudes, the correlation between SSTA and non-propagating basin-scale thermal signals (zt) is the most significant. By means of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and correlation analysis, the relationship between zorianztnz24 and SSTA is further studied. The results show that the first mode of SSTA EOF, zori EOF, the second mode of zt EOF, and the first mode of z24EOF are closely related to ENSO. The relationship between the first mode time coefficient of Z24EOF and ENSO is most obvious, and the correlation between Nio3.4 index and Z24EOF first mode time coefficient is as high as -0.71. The obtained results further reveal the close relationship between SSH and SSTA in the North Pacific, and the stable two-year periodic Rossby wave signal may be more conducive to the monitoring of ENSO signals than other variables in the atmosphere or ocean. 2. By defining the new Aleutian low pressure intensity index, it is found that the correlation between the winter Aleutian low pressure and the Arctic SAT in the following summer is significant, and an explanation mechanism is given. The weaker the Aleutian low in winter, the higher the SST in the mid-latitude basin of the North Pacific from the following spring to the beginning of summer, which leads to the anomaly of the mean meridional circulation and 500pha geopotential height in spring. Anomalous subsidence occurs in high latitudes, the Ferrer circulation weakens and warm air flows northward from the upper to the lower levels, which makes the Arctic SATs rise, at the same time, The adiabatic warming of abnormal subsidence motion and stopping the heat transfer from the surface also contribute to the high temperature of the Arctic; on the other hand, the negative anomaly of geopotential height in the mid-latitude region and the positive anomaly in the high latitude area, The south low and north high distribution type is beneficial to increase the Bering Strait inflow volume flux, and also makes the SAT higher in the Arctic region. The results reveal that the interannual variation of Aleutian depression regulates the Arctic summer SAT and thus provides a good indication for seasonal prediction in the Arctic and even in the Northern Hemisphere.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)氣象科學(xué)研究院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：P731.11;P461.2
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