本文選題：地震海嘯 + 歷史地震海嘯�。� 參考：《中國地震局工程力學研究所》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國沿海地區(qū)經濟發(fā)達、人口眾多，遍布著很多的重大工程，如海上鉆井平臺、跨海大橋和核電機組等。2011年3月11日日本特大地震引發(fā)的海嘯引發(fā)舉世矚目的核泄漏事故。由此引起了我國學者對沿海重大工程場址地震海嘯危險性分析的高度重視，越來越多的人意識到我國沿海構建完善的海嘯防災減災機制迫在眉睫。 （1）本文整理了可能影響我國沿海地區(qū)的歷史地震海嘯目錄，歷史上渤海、黃海、東海以及南海近海沿岸地區(qū)均有地震海嘯的記錄，近二千年史料中記載的沿海地區(qū)地震海嘯災害達30多條。通過對這些歷史地震海嘯災害記錄的研究，可以獲取我國沿海海域大陸架的地震地質特征信息、評估我國沿海海域地震活動性、劃定潛在地震海嘯源區(qū)，為我國沿海重大工程場址地震海嘯危險性分析提供可靠參考。 （2）對于沒有足夠歷史地震海嘯和史前地震海嘯記錄的地區(qū)，采用基于數(shù)值模擬的分析方法來評價該地區(qū)的海嘯危險性是一種有效方法。本文利用COMCOT模型模擬了近些年發(fā)生的多次地震海嘯，分析海嘯成災的原因，將模擬結果與美國國家海洋和大氣管理局（NOAA）國家地球物理數(shù)據(jù)中心（NGDC）的觀測數(shù)據(jù)進行對比分析，認為計算結果與觀測數(shù)據(jù)符合度較高，，模型可靠性較好，可以為我國沿海重大工程場址地震海嘯危險性分析提供可靠計算方法。 （3）本文借鑒地震危險性分析方法（PSHA），對地震海嘯危險性概率分析方法（PTHA）進行了較全面的分析與研究。我國史料中已確定的歷史地震海嘯較少，且有關古海嘯沉積的研究處于初級階段，因此歷史地震海嘯與古地震海嘯不能為地震海嘯危險性概率分析提供可靠的數(shù)據(jù)。地震海嘯數(shù)值模擬方法成為評價我國沿海重大工程場址地震海嘯危險性的有效方法。本文以三門場點和大鵬場點為例，進行基于數(shù)值模擬的地震海嘯危險性概率分析。三門場點的地震海嘯危險性主要來源于琉球海溝，而大鵬場點的地震海嘯危險性主要來源馬尼拉海溝、擔桿列島海外段、珠－坳中部斷裂。通過計算最后指出大鵬場點的海嘯危險性較高，應加大海嘯預警的投入、提高建筑物海嘯設防標準，構建完善的海嘯防災減災體系。 本文較全面地對地震海嘯危險性概率分析進行了研究，此思路可為實現(xiàn)我國沿海地震海嘯危險性分析、編制我國沿海地震海嘯危險區(qū)劃圖提供技術支持，為沿海城市的規(guī)劃、海洋資源的合理開發(fā)、重大工程設施的布局提供可靠參考。
[Abstract]:The coastal areas of our country have developed economy, large population and many important projects, such as offshore drilling platforms, bridge across the sea and nuclear power units. The tsunami caused by the Japanese earthquake on March 11, 2011 has caused a nuclear leakage accident that attracts worldwide attention. As a result, scholars in China attach great importance to seismic and tsunami risk analysis at major coastal engineering sites. More and more people are aware of the urgency of building a sound tsunami disaster prevention and mitigation mechanism along the coast of China. 1) this paper collates the catalogue of historical earthquakes and tsunamis that may affect the coastal areas of China. Historically, the Bohai Sea, Huang Hai, Earthquakes and tsunamis are recorded in coastal areas of the East China Sea and the South China Sea, and more than 30 earthquakes and tsunamis have been recorded in the coastal areas in the last two thousand years. Through the study of these historical earthquake and tsunami disaster records, we can obtain the seismic geological characteristics of the continental shelf of the coastal waters of China, evaluate the seismicity of the coastal waters of our country, and delineate the source areas of potential earthquakes and tsunamis. It provides a reliable reference for earthquake and tsunami risk analysis at major coastal engineering sites in China. (2) for areas where there are not enough records of historical earthquakes and tsunamis and prehistoric earthquakes and tsunamis, It is an effective method to evaluate the tsunami risk in this area by using numerical simulation method. In this paper, we use the COMCOT model to simulate many earthquakes and tsunamis in recent years, and analyze the causes of the tsunami disaster. The simulation results are compared with those observed by the National Geophysical data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States. It is considered that the coincidence between the calculated results and the observed data is high, and the reliability of the model is good. It can provide a reliable calculation method for seismic tsunami risk analysis at major coastal engineering sites in China. (3) this paper uses the seismic hazard analysis method PSHAA for reference, and makes a complete study on the seismic tsunami risk probability analysis method (PTHAA). Analysis and study of surface. There are few historical earthquakes and tsunamis in the historical data of our country, and the research on ancient tsunami deposition is still in the primary stage. Therefore, historical earthquake tsunami and ancient earthquake tsunami can not provide reliable data for seismic tsunami risk probability analysis. The numerical simulation method of earthquake and tsunami is an effective method to evaluate the seismic and tsunami risk of major engineering sites along the coast of China. In this paper, the probabilistic analysis of earthquake and tsunami risk based on numerical simulation is carried out by taking Sanmen site and Dapeng site as examples. The seismic and tsunami hazard of Sanmen site is mainly from the Ryukyu trench, while that of Dapeng site is mainly from the Manila trench, the overseas section of the Tam Guang Islands, and the central Zhuzhou-Depression fault. Finally, it is pointed out that the tsunami risk of Dapeng site is high, the investment of tsunami warning should be increased, the building tsunami protection standard should be raised, and a perfect tsunami disaster prevention and mitigation system should be constructed. In this paper, the probabilistic analysis of earthquake and tsunami risk is studied in a comprehensive way. This idea can provide technical support for the analysis of earthquake and tsunami risk along the coast of our country, and provide technical support for drawing up a map of the risk zone of earthquake and tsunami along the coast of China, as well as for the planning of coastal cities. The rational development of marine resources and the layout of major engineering facilities provide reliable reference.
【學位授予單位】：中國地震局工程力學研究所
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：P731.25

【共引文獻】

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本文編號：2015414