本文選題：地震海嘯 + 局地海嘯�。� 參考：《中國地震局工程力學研究所》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：自古以來,中國沿海區(qū)域人口聚集,經濟發(fā)達,交通便利,但相比于內陸,沿海區(qū)域有遭受海嘯襲擊的危險。近年來,沿海地區(qū)的海嘯危險性分析工作已逐步開展,大都采用確定性分析方法給出了定性結果。采用概率性分析方法進行定量評估的工作還開展較少,主要原因是概率性海嘯危險性分析(PTHA)關鍵步驟和環(huán)節(jié)還需完善,關鍵問題還需得到有效解決。因此,本文圍繞PTHA關鍵參數確定、PTHA關鍵方法完善、PTHA參數敏感性分析三方面內容開展研究,最終編制我國地震海嘯危險性圖集。主要工作如下:(1)PTHA關鍵參數確定。在總結了常用的幾種震級與斷層長度、寬度和滑移量的經驗關系基礎上,通過比較它們的適用震級范圍、適用地區(qū)范圍以及使用現狀,并且比較經驗關系與近年發(fā)生的幾次破壞性海嘯的真實震源參數,確定了Papazachos等的針對逆沖斷層經驗公式較適合于我國局地和區(qū)域地震海嘯源的震源參數估計;以局地潛在海嘯源的震級上限作為其最危險案例進行數值模擬,分析海嘯波對我國沿海地區(qū)的最大影響,給出了各局地海嘯源對沿海地區(qū)的有效影響范圍,以確定各局地海嘯源的數值模擬計算范圍。(2)PTHA關鍵方法完善。選取廣東大亞灣3個場點,采用傳統(tǒng)PTHA方法計算各場點對于不同海嘯波高的超越概率,以示例揭示傳統(tǒng)PTHA方法存在以下不足:震級分檔的不連續(xù)性引起目標場點海嘯波高分布的離散性;未考慮各潛在海嘯源內地震發(fā)生位置的空間隨機性;不能合理考慮PTHA結果的不確定性。針對這些問題提出了一種基于蒙特卡洛技術的PTHA方法,針對各潛在海嘯源,對震級和震中位置進行多次隨機采樣,以此替代傳統(tǒng)PTHA方法中震級分檔環(huán)節(jié)。最后采用新方法計算了上述3個場點的不同海嘯波高的超越概率,對比采用傳統(tǒng)PTHA方法的計算結果說明新方法可以較好地完善傳統(tǒng)方法存在的不足之處。(3)PTHA參數敏感性分析。以中國南海為研究對象,以馬尼拉海溝俯沖區(qū)為潛在震源區(qū),選取常用的SRTM、ETOPO、GEBCO三種水深數據,研究不同數據源的水深數據差異性以及數據自身誤差對于地震海嘯數值模擬的敏感性。結果表明在開闊的外海海域,不同數據源之間的水深數據差異對于海嘯數值模擬的影響可忽略;水深數據自身誤差對于數值模擬的海嘯波幅值影響不明顯,但對于其相位存在一定影響。得到如下結論:在大網格(低精度)計算環(huán)境下,海洋水深數據對于海嘯波高數值模擬的敏感性是較輕微的,目前開放的水深數據可滿足海嘯傳播數值模擬的需要。(4)編制我國地震海嘯危險性圖。采用本文提出的基于蒙特卡洛技術的PTHA方法,對我國東南沿海地區(qū)沿海岸線1480個場點進行PTHA計算,數值模擬了2個區(qū)域潛在海嘯源和8個局地潛在海嘯源的640個海嘯案例,得到了這些場點的海嘯波高分布。最終繪制了東南沿海地區(qū)海嘯波高1m、2m、3m、4m、5m以1年、10年、50年、100年為周期的超越概率分布圖以及波高1m、2m、3m、4m、5m的重現期分布圖。
[Abstract]:Since ancient times, the population of the coastal areas of China has gathered, developed and convenient, but compared to the inland, the coastal area has the danger of the tsunami. In recent years, the tsunami hazard analysis work in the coastal areas has been gradually carried out, and most of the qualitative results are given by the deterministic analysis method. The main reason is that the key steps and links of the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) need to be improved and the key problems still need to be effectively solved. Therefore, this paper focuses on the key parameters of PTHA, the improvement of the key PTHA methods, the sensitivity analysis of PTHA parameters, and the final compilation of the earthquake and tsunami in China. The main work is as follows: (1) the determination of the key parameters of PTHA. On the basis of summarizing the empirical relations between several commonly used magnitudes, the length of the fault, the width and the slip amount, by comparing their applicable magnitude range, the application of the area and the current situation, and the real relationship with several destructive tsunamis occurring in recent years. The real seismic source parameters determine the estimation of the source parameters of the empirical formula for the thrust fault, such as Papazachos, which is more suitable for the local and regional seismic tsunami sources in our country. The upper limit of the magnitude of the local potential tsunami source is used as the most dangerous case to simulate the maximum impact of the tsunami wave on the coastal areas of our country, and the local tsunamis are given. The effective range of the source to the coastal area is to determine the numerical simulation range of the local tsunami sources. (2) the key method of PTHA is perfect. The 3 sites in Dayawan, Guangdong, and the traditional PTHA method are used to calculate the transcendental probability of the different tsunami wave heights by the traditional method, and the following shortcomings of the traditional PTHA method are revealed. Continuity causes the dispersion of the height distribution of the tsunami wave in the target field; it does not consider the spatial randomness of the location of the earthquake in each potential tsunami source; the uncertainty of the PTHA results can not be considered reasonably. A PTHA method based on Monte Carlo technology is proposed for these problems, and the magnitude and location of the epicentre are more for each potential tsunami source. Sub random sampling is used to replace the magnitude division of the traditional PTHA method. Finally, a new method is used to calculate the transcendental probability of the different tsunami wave heights of the above 3 sites. Compared with the traditional PTHA method, the new method can better improve the shortcomings of the traditional methods. (3) the sensitivity analysis of PTHA parameters. The South China Sea is the research object, taking the Manila trench subduction area as the potential source area, selecting three kinds of water depth data of common SRTM, ETOPO and GEBCO, to study the difference of water depth data from different data sources and the sensitivity of data self error to seismic tsunami numerical simulation. The results show that water between different data sources is in open sea area. The influence of deep data difference on the tsunami numerical simulation can be neglected; the self error of water depth data has no obvious influence on the amplitude of the numerical simulation, but it has a certain influence on its phase. The following conclusion is drawn: under the large grid (low precision) computing environment, the sea depth data is less sensitive to the tsunami wave height numerical simulation. At present, the open water depth data can meet the needs of the numerical simulation of tsunami propagation. (4) compile the seismic and tsunami hazard map of our country. By using the PTHA method based on Monte Carlo technology proposed in this paper, the PTHA calculation is carried out along the coastline of the southeast coastal areas of China, and the potential tsunami sources and 8 local areas in 2 regions are numerically simulated. The 640 tsunami cases of potential tsunami source have obtained the distribution of tsunami wave height in these sites. Finally, we draw the map of the transcendental probability distribution of the tsunami wave height 1m, 2m, 3M, 4m, 5m for 1, 10, 50, 100 years in the southeast coastal region, as well as the heavy current distribution map of the wave height 1m, 2m, 3M, 4m, 5m.
【學位授予單位】：中國地震局工程力學研究所
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P731.25

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相關期刊論文 前1條

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本文編號：2010921