本文選題：中國近海海溫 + CMIP��； 參考：《海洋學報》2016年10期

【摘要】：基于觀測和再分析資料,利用多種指標和方法評估了國際耦合模式比較計劃(CMIP5)中21個模式對中國近海海溫的月、季節(jié)和年際變化模擬能力。多模式集合能夠再現(xiàn)氣候平均意義下近海海溫的空間分布特征,但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黃海,集合平均與觀測差別比較明顯。在年際尺度上,與觀測數(shù)據(jù)對比,模式模擬海溫與Nino3指數(shù)相關性較小。中國近海海表面溫度在1960-2002年有明顯的升高趨勢,從2003年開始增溫趨緩。評估結果表明,ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八個模式對中國近海海溫的變化有較好的模擬能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM這5個模式結果對中國近海海溫未來的變化進行了預估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下,未來近100年中國近海海溫有明顯升高趨勢,最優(yōu)模式多模式集合平均增溫分別可達到1.5℃、3.3℃,凈熱通量變化和平流變化共同促進了東海升溫。
[Abstract]:Based on the observational and reanalysis data, the ability of 21 of the 21 models to simulate the monthly, seasonal and interannual variation of SST in China's coastal waters was evaluated by using various indicators and methods. Multi-model sets can reproduce the spatial distribution characteristics of offshore SST in the mean climate sense, but the values are underestimated to some extent. In Bohai Sea and Huang Hai, the difference between collective average and observation is obvious. On an interannual scale, compared with observational data, the model simulated SST has little correlation with Nino3 exponent. From 1960 to 2002, the sea surface temperature (SST) in the coastal waters of China increased obviously, and began to slow down in 2003. The evaluation results show that the eight models of ACCESS 1.0 BCC-CSM 1.1 and HadGEM2-ESU IPSL-CM5A-MRN CMCC-CMN FGOALS-g2 CNRM-CM5-2INMCM4 can simulate the variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in China. Based on the results of five models of ACCESS 1.0 INMCM4 BCC-CSM1.1 IPSL-CM5A-MRCMCC-CM, the future variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in offshore China is predicted. Under the RCP4.5 / RCP8.5 scenario, the sea surface temperature (SST) in the next 100 years has an obvious upward trend. The average temperature increase of the optimal multi-model set can reach 1.5 鈩，

本文編號：1989665