本文選題：風暴潮災害 + 脆弱性��； 參考：《中國海洋大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：沿海地區(qū)是我國經濟社會最發(fā)達的地區(qū)，是我國經濟社會發(fā)展的領航者，在我國社會經濟發(fā)展中具有重要的戰(zhàn)略地位。然而，隨著全球氣候的不斷變化，愈加頻繁的海洋災害嚴重影響著我國沿海地區(qū)經濟社會的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。風暴潮災害作為我國最主要的海洋災害，它已成為影響沿海地區(qū)正常經濟社會生活的重要因素。沿海地區(qū)風暴潮災害的高風險性使得沿海地區(qū)風暴潮災害風險逐漸成為學者們的關注對象。 20世紀80年代，學者們關于自然災害的研究重點逐漸轉移到脆弱性，認為脆弱性也是導致災情發(fā)生及災情差異的關鍵因素之一。而且不同于致災因子相關研究主要關注致災因子強度和頻率，難以為人類所掌控。脆弱性分析是聯(lián)系災害與風險研究的重要橋梁,脆弱性與社會經濟系統(tǒng)密切相關，人類可以通過調整社會經濟活動減少脆弱性，，進而降低災害損失，促進沿海地區(qū)社會經濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 本文將粗糙集理論引入風暴潮災害脆弱性評價，并將其與組合賦權法相結合構建了RST-CWM組合評價模型，并應用該模型對沿海省市風暴潮災害脆弱性進行了組合評價。 文章首先，界定脆弱性相關的概念，厘清脆弱性相關概念之間的關系；識別沿海地區(qū)風暴潮災害脆弱性因子。其次，分別分析粗糙集理論(RST)及組合賦權方法(CWM)在風暴潮災害脆弱性評價中的適用性，并結合兩種方法的優(yōu)勢構建地區(qū)風暴潮災害脆弱性RST-CWM組合評價模型。然后，在災害脆弱性相關理論分析基礎上，結合沿海地區(qū)風暴潮災害脆弱性因子識別結果，考慮RST-CWM組合評價模型特點，建立沿海地區(qū)風暴潮災害脆弱性評價指標體系；最后，應用地區(qū)風暴潮災害脆弱性RST-CWM組合評價模型對我國沿海11省市的風暴潮災害脆弱性進行評價分析。評價結果顯示：RST-CWM組合評價模型能夠有效結合兩種方法優(yōu)勢，提高評價分析的可信性和準確性；我國沿海省市風暴潮災害脆弱性由大到小排序依次為：山東天津福建廣東廣西遼寧江蘇浙江海南河北上海。 論文在以下方面進行了創(chuàng)新性探討：構建地區(qū)風暴潮災害脆弱性RST-CWM組合模型，一方面將粗糙集理論引入風暴潮災害脆弱性評價，消除冗雜指標，提高風暴潮災害脆弱性評價的有效性；另一方面，采用組合賦權方法確定指標權重，一定程度地改善了單一方法進行評價的片面性，可以有效提高評價結論的準確性和可信度。
[Abstract]:The coastal area is the most developed area of our country's economy and society, the leader of the economic and social development of our country, and has an important strategic position in the social and economic development of our country. However, with the continuous change of the global climate, the more frequent marine disasters have seriously affected the sustainable development of the economy and society of the coastal areas of our country. As the most important marine disaster in China, it has become an important factor affecting the normal economic and social life of coastal areas. The high risk of storm tide in coastal areas makes the risk of storm tide in coastal areas gradually become the focus of attention of scholars.
In 1980s, the focus of research on natural disasters gradually shifted to vulnerability, and it was considered that vulnerability was also one of the key factors that resulted in the occurrence of disaster and the difference of the disaster. The important bridge of risk research is that the vulnerability is closely related to the social and economic system. The human beings can reduce the vulnerability by adjusting the social and economic activities, and then reduce the loss of disaster and promote the sustainable development of the social and economic in the coastal areas.
In this paper, the rough set theory is introduced into the vulnerability assessment of storm tide disaster, and a combination evaluation model of RST-CWM is constructed by combining it with combination empowerment method. The model is used to evaluate the vulnerability of storm tide disaster in coastal provinces and cities.
Firstly, the article defines the concept of vulnerability related, clarifies the relationship between the related concepts of vulnerability, and identifies the vulnerability factors of storm surge disaster in coastal areas. Secondly, it analyzes the applicability of rough set theory (RST) and combination weighting method (CWM) in the vulnerability assessment of storm tide disaster, and constructs regional wind with the advantages of the two methods. RST-CWM combined evaluation model of storm flood vulnerability, then, on the basis of the related theory analysis of disaster vulnerability, combined with the identification results of the vulnerability factor of storm tide disaster in coastal areas, and considering the characteristics of the RST-CWM combination evaluation model, the vulnerability evaluation index system of storm tide disaster in coastal areas is established. Finally, the storm surge disaster is used in the area. The weak RST-CWM combination evaluation model is used to evaluate the vulnerability of storm surge disaster in 11 coastal provinces and cities in China. The evaluation results show that the RST-CWM combined evaluation model can effectively combine the advantages of the two methods and improve the credibility and accuracy of the evaluation and analysis. The vulnerability of storm tide disasters in coastal provinces and cities in China is in order from large to small order. Shandong, Tianjin, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hainan, Hebei and Hebei.
In the following aspects, the paper makes an innovative discussion: constructing the RST-CWM combination model of regional storm surge vulnerability. On the one hand, it introduces rough set theory into the vulnerability assessment of storm tide disaster, eliminates the miscellaneous index, and improves the effectiveness of the vulnerability assessment of storm tide disaster; the other side uses combination weighting method to determine the index weight. To a certain extent, the one-sided evaluation of the single method can be improved, and the accuracy and credibility of the conclusion can be effectively improved.
【學位授予單位】：中國海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：P731.23

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