發(fā)布時間：2018-05-09 02:45

  本文選題：軟剛臂 + 現(xiàn)場監(jiān)測��； 參考：《大連理工大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：由于渤海水深較淺且存在冰期,軟剛臂系泊系統(tǒng)成為作業(yè)于該海域浮式海洋平臺主要的系泊形式。軟剛臂系泊系統(tǒng)是承擔浮體系泊定位和油氣電力輸送等功能的關(guān)鍵設(shè)施,一旦發(fā)生失效,將會對浮式平臺甚至整個油田造成巨大影響。由于海洋環(huán)境的惡劣多變及結(jié)構(gòu)形式的復(fù)雜新穎,軟剛臂系泊系統(tǒng)在服役期間發(fā)生了多起結(jié)構(gòu)失效事故,造成了巨大的經(jīng)濟損失。為了保障海上能源開發(fā)的順利進行,需要對軟剛臂系統(tǒng)進行結(jié)構(gòu)風險評估,并提出相應(yīng)的風險管控措施。 由于失效因素的不確定性和失效事故資料的不完備,用傳統(tǒng)方法對軟剛臂結(jié)構(gòu)進行風險評估,存在著諸多困難。本文利用現(xiàn)場監(jiān)測,獲取軟剛臂系統(tǒng)真實的環(huán)境荷載信息和結(jié)構(gòu)響應(yīng)信息,通過對現(xiàn)場數(shù)據(jù)進行分析,評估結(jié)構(gòu)的風險,并提出相應(yīng)的風險管控措施。主要內(nèi)容包括： 首先,通過對系泊系統(tǒng)設(shè)計原理進行分析,建立了針對軟剛臂系泊系統(tǒng)的完整的監(jiān)測體系,通過對環(huán)境荷載信息、結(jié)構(gòu)響應(yīng)信息進行全面測量,為結(jié)構(gòu)風險評估提供了數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)。同時,為了保證測量數(shù)據(jù)的正確性,通過將現(xiàn)場實測的數(shù)據(jù)和通過理論、數(shù)值模擬得到的數(shù)據(jù)進行對比,論證了測量數(shù)據(jù)的可靠性。 其次,基于軟剛臂系泊系統(tǒng)的長期監(jiān)測,對系統(tǒng)存在的風險進行識別,構(gòu)建了系統(tǒng)風險因素的遞階層次結(jié)構(gòu)體系,并以系統(tǒng)過載失效為例,通過現(xiàn)場監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)的分析,建立了結(jié)構(gòu)受力的概率分布模型,計算了系統(tǒng)服役期發(fā)生過載的概率,并對過載發(fā)生后果進行量化分析,判斷了該風險的概率等級和后果等級,然后通過風險矩陣,評估過載的風險等級為高風險。 最后,根據(jù)風險分析的結(jié)果,提出通過系泊力預(yù)報來減小系統(tǒng)過載的風險。針對傳統(tǒng)預(yù)報方法預(yù)報過程復(fù)雜、精度低等缺點,提出通過RBF神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)報系泊力的方法。通過對樣本數(shù)據(jù)進行預(yù)處理、調(diào)整網(wǎng)絡(luò)參數(shù)等措施,提高了學習效率和預(yù)報精度,并將預(yù)測結(jié)果與樣本外實測數(shù)據(jù)進行對比,論證了該方法的可行性。研究成果成功應(yīng)用于我國渤海某軟剛臂系統(tǒng)受力的預(yù)報。
[Abstract]:Because of the shallow water depth and ice age in Bohai Sea, the flexible rigid arm mooring system becomes the main mooring form of floating offshore platform in this sea area. The soft rigid arm mooring system is the key facility to perform the functions of floating system positioning and oil and gas power transmission. Once failure occurs, it will have a great impact on the floating platform or even the whole oil field. Due to the variety of marine environment and the complexity and novelty of the structure, there are many structural failure accidents in the period of service of the soft rigid arm mooring system, resulting in huge economic losses. In order to ensure the smooth development of offshore energy, it is necessary to carry out structural risk assessment of soft rigid arm system and put forward corresponding risk control measures. Due to the uncertainty of failure factors and the incompleteness of failure accident data, it is difficult to evaluate the risk of soft rigid arm structure by traditional method. In this paper, the real environmental load information and structural response information of the soft rigid arm system are obtained by field monitoring, and the risk of the structure is evaluated by analyzing the field data, and the corresponding risk control measures are put forward. The main elements include: Firstly, by analyzing the design principle of the mooring system, a complete monitoring system for the soft rigid arm mooring system is established, and the environmental load information and the structural response information are comprehensively measured. It provides a data base for structural risk assessment. At the same time, in order to ensure the correctness of the measured data, the reliability of the measured data is demonstrated by comparing the field measured data with the data obtained through theoretical and numerical simulation. Secondly, based on the long-term monitoring of the soft rigid arm mooring system, the risk of the system is identified, and the hierarchical structure system of system risk factors is constructed, and the system overload failure is taken as an example, and the field monitoring data are analyzed. The probability distribution model of structural force is established, and the probability of overloading in the service period of the system is calculated, and the result of overloading is analyzed quantitatively, the probability grade and consequence grade of the risk are judged, and then the risk matrix is adopted. Assess the risk of overload as high risk. Finally, according to the results of risk analysis, a mooring force prediction is proposed to reduce the risk of system overload. In view of the disadvantages of the traditional forecasting method, such as complicated forecasting process and low precision, a method of predicting mooring force by RBF neural network is proposed. By preprocessing the sample data and adjusting the network parameters, the learning efficiency and prediction accuracy are improved. The feasibility of this method is demonstrated by comparing the prediction results with the measured data outside the sample. The research results have been successfully applied to the prediction of the force of a soft rigid arm system in Bohai Sea, China.
【學位授予單位】：大連理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：P751

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 林少芬,李瑰賢,陳映秋,劉福生;散裝貨船模糊綜合安全性評估的實現(xiàn)方法[J];船舶工程;2000年01期

2 周亞軍,趙德有,馬駿;基于人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的海洋平臺振動主動控制[J];船舶力學;2003年05期

3 肖龍飛;楊建民;胡志強;;極淺水單點系泊FPSO低頻響應(yīng)分析[J];船舶力學;2010年04期

4 張火明;孫志林;高明正;;改進的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)在船舶與海洋工程中的應(yīng)用研究(英文)[J];船舶力學;2010年06期

5 趙耕賢;船舶與海洋結(jié)構(gòu)物設(shè)計中的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)之一(結(jié)構(gòu)強度)[J];船舶;2000年06期

6 夏鑫;;量化風險分析(QRA)在FPSO上的應(yīng)用[J];船舶;2010年02期

7 鞏春領(lǐng);張勇;;橋梁施工風險后果估計研究[J];城市道橋與防洪;2008年06期

8 林皋,朱彤,林蓓;結(jié)構(gòu)動力模型試驗的相似技巧[J];大連理工大學學報;2000年01期

9 李愛群;周廣東;;光纖Bragg光柵傳感器測試技術(shù)研究進展與展望(Ⅰ):應(yīng)變、溫度測試[J];東南大學學報(自然科學版);2009年06期

10 丁一凡;世界能源形勢的變化與中國的能源安全[J];國際經(jīng)濟評論;2004年06期

相關(guān)博士學位論文 前1條

1 張帆;深海立柱式平臺概念設(shè)計及水動力性能研究[D];上海交通大學;2008年

，

本文編號：1864247