本文選題：軟剛臂 + 現(xiàn)場(chǎng)監(jiān)測(cè)　； 參考：《大連理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：由于渤海水深較淺且存在冰期,軟剛臂系泊系統(tǒng)成為作業(yè)于該海域浮式海洋平臺(tái)主要的系泊形式。軟剛臂系泊系統(tǒng)是承擔(dān)浮體系泊定位和油氣電力輸送等功能的關(guān)鍵設(shè)施,一旦發(fā)生失效,將會(huì)對(duì)浮式平臺(tái)甚至整個(gè)油田造成巨大影響。由于海洋環(huán)境的惡劣多變及結(jié)構(gòu)形式的復(fù)雜新穎,軟剛臂系泊系統(tǒng)在服役期間發(fā)生了多起結(jié)構(gòu)失效事故,造成了巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。為了保障海上能源開發(fā)的順利進(jìn)行,需要對(duì)軟剛臂系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行結(jié)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估,并提出相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管控措施。 由于失效因素的不確定性和失效事故資料的不完備,用傳統(tǒng)方法對(duì)軟剛臂結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估,存在著諸多困難。本文利用現(xiàn)場(chǎng)監(jiān)測(cè),獲取軟剛臂系統(tǒng)真實(shí)的環(huán)境荷載信息和結(jié)構(gòu)響應(yīng)信息,通過對(duì)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,評(píng)估結(jié)構(gòu)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并提出相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管控措施。主要內(nèi)容包括： 首先,通過對(duì)系泊系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)原理進(jìn)行分析,建立了針對(duì)軟剛臂系泊系統(tǒng)的完整的監(jiān)測(cè)體系,通過對(duì)環(huán)境荷載信息、結(jié)構(gòu)響應(yīng)信息進(jìn)行全面測(cè)量,為結(jié)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估提供了數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)。同時(shí),為了保證測(cè)量數(shù)據(jù)的正確性,通過將現(xiàn)場(chǎng)實(shí)測(cè)的數(shù)據(jù)和通過理論、數(shù)值模擬得到的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行對(duì)比,論證了測(cè)量數(shù)據(jù)的可靠性。 其次,基于軟剛臂系泊系統(tǒng)的長(zhǎng)期監(jiān)測(cè),對(duì)系統(tǒng)存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別,構(gòu)建了系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的遞階層次結(jié)構(gòu)體系,并以系統(tǒng)過載失效為例,通過現(xiàn)場(chǎng)監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)的分析,建立了結(jié)構(gòu)受力的概率分布模型,計(jì)算了系統(tǒng)服役期發(fā)生過載的概率,并對(duì)過載發(fā)生后果進(jìn)行量化分析,判斷了該風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率等級(jí)和后果等級(jí),然后通過風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣,評(píng)估過載的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)為高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 最后,根據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的結(jié)果,提出通過系泊力預(yù)報(bào)來(lái)減小系統(tǒng)過載的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。針對(duì)傳統(tǒng)預(yù)報(bào)方法預(yù)報(bào)過程復(fù)雜、精度低等缺點(diǎn),提出通過RBF神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)報(bào)系泊力的方法。通過對(duì)樣本數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行預(yù)處理、調(diào)整網(wǎng)絡(luò)參數(shù)等措施,提高了學(xué)習(xí)效率和預(yù)報(bào)精度,并將預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果與樣本外實(shí)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行對(duì)比,論證了該方法的可行性。研究成果成功應(yīng)用于我國(guó)渤海某軟剛臂系統(tǒng)受力的預(yù)報(bào)。
[Abstract]:Because of the shallow water depth and ice age in Bohai Sea, the flexible rigid arm mooring system becomes the main mooring form of floating offshore platform in this sea area. The soft rigid arm mooring system is the key facility to perform the functions of floating system positioning and oil and gas power transmission. Once failure occurs, it will have a great impact on the floating platform or even the whole oil field. Due to the variety of marine environment and the complexity and novelty of the structure, there are many structural failure accidents in the period of service of the soft rigid arm mooring system, resulting in huge economic losses. In order to ensure the smooth development of offshore energy, it is necessary to carry out structural risk assessment of soft rigid arm system and put forward corresponding risk control measures. Due to the uncertainty of failure factors and the incompleteness of failure accident data, it is difficult to evaluate the risk of soft rigid arm structure by traditional method. In this paper, the real environmental load information and structural response information of the soft rigid arm system are obtained by field monitoring, and the risk of the structure is evaluated by analyzing the field data, and the corresponding risk control measures are put forward. The main elements include: Firstly, by analyzing the design principle of the mooring system, a complete monitoring system for the soft rigid arm mooring system is established, and the environmental load information and the structural response information are comprehensively measured. It provides a data base for structural risk assessment. At the same time, in order to ensure the correctness of the measured data, the reliability of the measured data is demonstrated by comparing the field measured data with the data obtained through theoretical and numerical simulation. Secondly, based on the long-term monitoring of the soft rigid arm mooring system, the risk of the system is identified, and the hierarchical structure system of system risk factors is constructed, and the system overload failure is taken as an example, and the field monitoring data are analyzed. The probability distribution model of structural force is established, and the probability of overloading in the service period of the system is calculated, and the result of overloading is analyzed quantitatively, the probability grade and consequence grade of the risk are judged, and then the risk matrix is adopted. Assess the risk of overload as high risk. Finally, according to the results of risk analysis, a mooring force prediction is proposed to reduce the risk of system overload. In view of the disadvantages of the traditional forecasting method, such as complicated forecasting process and low precision, a method of predicting mooring force by RBF neural network is proposed. By preprocessing the sample data and adjusting the network parameters, the learning efficiency and prediction accuracy are improved. The feasibility of this method is demonstrated by comparing the prediction results with the measured data outside the sample. The research results have been successfully applied to the prediction of the force of a soft rigid arm system in Bohai Sea, China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：P751

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