本文選題：中國近海海溫 + CMIP5��； 參考：《國家海洋環(huán)境預報中心》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：基于觀測和再分析資料,利用多種指標和方法評估了國際耦合模式比較計劃(CMIP5)中21個模式對中國近海海溫的月、季節(jié)和年際變化模擬能力。多模式集合能夠再現(xiàn)氣候平均意義下近海海溫的空間分布特征,但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黃海,集合平均與觀測差別比較明顯,在冬夏季偏差尤為顯著。在年際尺度上,與觀測數(shù)據(jù)對比,模式模擬海溫與Nino3指數(shù)相關(guān)性較小。中國近海海表面溫度在1960-2002年有明顯的升高趨勢,從2003年開始增溫趨緩。評估結(jié)果表明,ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八個模式對中國近海海溫的變化有較好的模擬能力。通過分析選定ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM這五個模式為最優(yōu)模式對中國近海海表溫度變化成因進行分析。從最優(yōu)模式多模式集合(MME)結(jié)果來看,1960-2005年東海和南海北部升溫主要原因是黑潮流速增強導致的平流熱輸送增加,南海南部海溫升高主要原因是感熱通量和潛熱通量釋放減少。對未來不同RCP情景下的海表溫度變化進行預估發(fā)現(xiàn),在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下,未來近100年中國近海海溫有明顯升高趨勢,最優(yōu)模式多模式集合平均增溫分別可達到1.5℃、3.3℃,兩種不同情景下中國近海海表風速變化趨勢空間分布相類似,在南海各模式模擬風速變化偏差較大,大部分最優(yōu)模式均能模擬出東中國海偏南風增強,冬季風減弱的變化特征,并且都模擬出臺灣島東北側(cè)黑潮流速增強,其流速變化分別為1cm/s、2.5cm/s。未來東中國海升溫是凈熱通量變化和平流變化共同作用的,凈熱通量變化促進了南海升溫。
[Abstract]:Based on the observational and reanalysis data, the ability of 21 of the 21 models to simulate the monthly, seasonal and interannual variation of SST in China's coastal waters was evaluated by using various indicators and methods. Multi-model sets can reproduce the spatial distribution characteristics of offshore SST in the mean climate sense, but the values are underestimated to some extent. In Bohai Sea and Huang Hai, the difference between collective average and observation is obvious, especially in winter and summer. On an interannual scale, compared with observational data, the model simulated SST has little correlation with Nino3 exponent. From 1960 to 2002, the sea surface temperature (SST) in the coastal waters of China increased obviously, and began to slow down in 2003. The evaluation results show that the eight models of ACCESS 1.0 BCC-CSM 1.1 and HadGEM2-ESU IPSL-CM5A-MRN CMCC-CMN FGOALS-g2 CNRM-CM5-2INMCM4 can simulate the variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in China. The five models of ACCESS 1.0 INMCM4 BCC-CSM1.1 IPSL-CM5A-MRMCC-CM are selected as the optimal models to analyze the causes of sea surface temperature variation in the coastal waters of China by analyzing the five models of ACCESS 1.0, INMCM4, BCC-CSM1.1 and IPSL-CM5A-MRCC-CM. From the results of MMEs of the optimal model, it is found that the increase of advection heat transport caused by the increase of Kuroshio velocity in the East China Sea and the northern part of the South China Sea from 1960 to 2005 is mainly due to the decrease of sensible heat flux and latent heat flux in the south of the South China Sea. Based on the prediction of sea surface temperature variation in different RCP scenarios, it is found that in the next 100 years, the sea surface temperature (SST) in China's coastal waters will increase obviously in the next 100 years under the RCP4.5 / RCP8.5 scenario, and the average temperature increase of the optimal multi-model set can reach 1.5 鈩，

本文編號：1840307