本文選題：熱帶太平洋 + 長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)��； 參考：《蘭州大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：熱帶太平洋冷舌模態(tài)(CTM)是熱帶太平洋海表溫度異常(SSTA)的EOF第二模態(tài),代表了熱帶太平洋冷舌區(qū)的海溫和冷舌區(qū)之外的反位相的變化。當(dāng)CTM為正位相時(shí),熱帶太平洋冷舌區(qū)為冷SSTA,而冷舌區(qū)之外的其他區(qū)域?yàn)榕疭STA,負(fù)位相情況相反。CTM的時(shí)間序列(NPC2)主要為長(zhǎng)期冷趨勢(shì)并且與全球變暖有很高的相關(guān),其在1930年之前基本上為負(fù)位相,1940年到1980年之間為年際振蕩,1980年之后基本上為正位相。與此同時(shí),CTM與大氣場(chǎng)和次表層海溫緊密聯(lián)系,是一個(gè)海氣耦合的模態(tài)。本文以熱帶太平洋海溫長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)的觀測(cè)事實(shí)為依據(jù),證實(shí)了CTM是一個(gè)真實(shí)的物理模態(tài)。系統(tǒng)地建立了CTM的海洋內(nèi)部動(dòng)力過(guò)程并探討了它與全球變暖的關(guān)系。提出了CTM作為背景場(chǎng)調(diào)節(jié)ENSO溫躍層反饋的物理機(jī)制。評(píng)估了CMIP5模式的歷史(historical)試驗(yàn)對(duì)CTM的模擬能力。研究了CMIP5工業(yè)革命之前(piControl)試驗(yàn)中無(wú)全球變暖強(qiáng)迫下CTM的年際變化特征及相應(yīng)的物理過(guò)程,進(jìn)一步證實(shí)了無(wú)全球變暖強(qiáng)迫下,CTM依然是一個(gè)真實(shí)的物理模態(tài)。主要結(jié)論如下:(1)熱帶太平洋冷舌模態(tài)及其在全球變暖背景下的動(dòng)力過(guò)程在全球變暖背景下,CTM能很好的表征熱帶太平洋的背景場(chǎng),是一個(gè)真實(shí)的物理模態(tài),這在多套海表溫度資料和次表層海溫資料當(dāng)中都能得到證明。若去除ENSO信號(hào)干擾后,在多套資料當(dāng)中都能得到赤道東太平洋海溫長(zhǎng)期冷趨勢(shì)和西太平洋暖趨勢(shì)。CTM為一個(gè)海氣耦合模態(tài),其長(zhǎng)期冷趨勢(shì)是海洋動(dòng)力過(guò)程對(duì)全球變暖的響應(yīng)。本文針對(duì)過(guò)去海洋內(nèi)部動(dòng)力反饋過(guò)程的研究不足,從熱收支方程出發(fā),系統(tǒng)地建立了全球變暖背景下CTM的海洋內(nèi)部動(dòng)力過(guò)程。利用赤道東太平洋的海溫?zé)崾罩Х匠?發(fā)現(xiàn)了凈熱通量對(duì)CTM起了阻尼作用,而四個(gè)海流平流項(xiàng)(-u′?t?x,-v?t′?y,-w?t′?z,和-w′?t?z)影響著ctm的海溫變化。在它們之中,氣候態(tài)上翻流對(duì)應(yīng)的垂直平流項(xiàng)(-w?t′?z)是引起ctm長(zhǎng)期冷趨勢(shì)最重要的因子。另外,-w?t′?z平流項(xiàng)的長(zhǎng)期冷趨勢(shì)主要受控于全球變暖背景下減小的垂直海溫異常梯度(?t′?z)。而其他三項(xiàng)對(duì)ctm長(zhǎng)期冷趨勢(shì)的貢獻(xiàn)較小。(2)在全球變暖背景下熱帶太平洋冷舌模態(tài)對(duì)enso的影響從ctm作為全球變暖背景下熱帶太平洋海溫背景場(chǎng)的角度,提出了全球變暖背景下ctm調(diào)節(jié)enso溫躍層反饋的物理機(jī)制。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),當(dāng)強(qiáng)的正ctm疊加于elni?o時(shí),ctm在赤道東太平洋的冷ssta使得elni?o在該區(qū)域的ssta變?nèi)?進(jìn)一步引起elni?o的暖中心沿著赤道向西偏移,這與近期中部型elni?o的頻發(fā)有緊密的聯(lián)系。另外,強(qiáng)的正ctm的暖ssta導(dǎo)致elni?o在赤道東太平洋之外的ssta變暖,進(jìn)一步引起赤道西太平洋和赤道外的ssta變暖,從而導(dǎo)致elni?o的經(jīng)向和緯向?qū)挾茸儗挕７粗?當(dāng)強(qiáng)的正ctm疊加于lani?a時(shí),ctm在赤道東太平洋的冷ssta使得lani?a的冷ssta在該區(qū)域增強(qiáng)。而lani?a的ssta中心不變,依然位于赤道東太平洋。同時(shí),ctm在赤道東太平洋之外的暖ssta使得lani?a在赤道西太平洋和赤道外的ssta變暖,從而引起lani?a的經(jīng)向和緯向?qū)挾茸冋�。以上現(xiàn)象是由于赤道太平洋冷舌區(qū)和冷舌區(qū)之外的海溫對(duì)全球變暖不同的響應(yīng)所引起�；诮Y(jié)論(1)的研究,即對(duì)ctm的長(zhǎng)期冷趨勢(shì)起主要貢獻(xiàn)的為-w?t′?z平流項(xiàng),這對(duì)應(yīng)enso理論中的溫躍層反饋過(guò)程。因此,當(dāng)強(qiáng)的正ctm疊加于elni?o上時(shí),將會(huì)抑制赤道東太平洋地區(qū)的溫躍層反饋,使得該區(qū)域elni?o的強(qiáng)度減弱。而當(dāng)強(qiáng)的正ctm疊加于lani?a上時(shí),它會(huì)加強(qiáng)赤道東太平洋的溫躍層反饋,使得該區(qū)域lani?a的強(qiáng)度增強(qiáng)。并且,在充電-放電enso模型中,加入了ctm對(duì)應(yīng)的長(zhǎng)期冷趨勢(shì),驗(yàn)證了這一觀點(diǎn)。(3)在cmip5歷史實(shí)驗(yàn)中模式對(duì)冷舌模態(tài)的模擬利用20個(gè)cmip5模式評(píng)估了歷史試驗(yàn)下模式對(duì)enso和ctm時(shí)空特征的模擬能力。其中有5個(gè)模式(cesm1-cam5,cmcc-cm,fgoals-g2,ipsl-cm5b-lr,noresm1-m)基本上能模擬出enso中心位置和馬蹄形ssta空間特征以及2到7年年際振蕩特征,還有CTM熱帶太平洋冷舌區(qū)和冷舌區(qū)之外SSTA反位相變化以及CTM主要的長(zhǎng)期冷趨勢(shì)。另外,這5個(gè)模式對(duì)赤道東太平洋冷舌區(qū)海溫對(duì)全球變暖響應(yīng)模擬較好。即在全球變暖背景下,這5個(gè)模式對(duì)應(yīng)的赤道東太平洋垂直海溫梯度(?T′?z)變冷,在氣候態(tài)上翻流作用下,產(chǎn)生冷平流項(xiàng)(-w?T′?z),最終引起CTM的長(zhǎng)期變冷趨勢(shì)。(4)在CMIP5工業(yè)革命之前試驗(yàn)中冷舌模態(tài)的年際變化在piControl試驗(yàn)下,分析了CTM的年際變化及其物理機(jī)制,證實(shí)了無(wú)全球變暖強(qiáng)迫下,CTM依然是一個(gè)真實(shí)的物理模態(tài)。研究表明在該試驗(yàn)中ENSO和CTM的年際變化通過(guò)赤道東傳Kelvin波和Bjerknes反饋,使二者有緊密的物理聯(lián)系,聯(lián)系為:El Ni?o→CTM→La Ni?a→-CTM→El Ni?o,其中→代表從原因到結(jié)果。與此同時(shí),盡管在觀測(cè)中CTM的年際信號(hào)被其長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)所掩蓋,但依然有年際變化,如1940年到1980年CTM主要為年際振蕩。在觀測(cè)中El Ni?o→CTM或La Ni?a→-CTM的過(guò)程與模式一致,但是CTM→La Ni?a或-CTM→El Ni?o這一過(guò)程通不過(guò)顯著性檢驗(yàn),并且觀測(cè)中因El Ni?o衰亡引起的赤道東太平洋冷海溫強(qiáng)度與模式相比較弱,這可能是由于觀測(cè)中CTM受全球變暖的強(qiáng)迫引起長(zhǎng)期冷趨勢(shì)太強(qiáng)而年際信號(hào)太弱。
[Abstract]:The tropical Pacific cold tongue mode (CTM) is the EOF second mode of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), representing the change of the reverse phase in the cold tongue region of the tropical Pacific. When CTM is a positive phase, the cold tongue region of the tropical Pacific is cold SSTA, while the other regions outside the cold tongue region are warm SSTA, and the negative phase is opposite.C. The time series (NPC2) of TM is mainly a long-term cold trend and has a high correlation with global warming. It is basically negative phase before 1930, the interannual oscillation between 1940 and 1980, and basically positive phase after 1980. At the same time, CTM is closely connected with the gas field and subsurface sea surface temperature. This paper is a modal of sea air coupling. Based on the observational facts of the long-term trend of tropical Pacific SST, it is proved that CTM is a real physical mode. The internal dynamic process of CTM is established and the relationship between it and global warming is discussed. The physical mechanism of CTM as the background field to regulate the ENSO thermocline feedback is proposed. The history of the CMIP5 model is evaluated (historica). L) the simulation ability of the test for CTM. The interannual variation and physical process of CTM without global warming forced before the CMIP5 Industrial Revolution (piControl) test are studied. It is further confirmed that CTM is still a real physical mode without global warming coercion. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the cold tongue mode of the tropical Pacific and its whole In the background of global warming, under the background of global warming, CTM can characterize the background field of the tropical Pacific very well. It is a real physical mode, which can be proved in many sets of sea surface temperature data and subsurface sea surface temperature data. If ENSO signal interference is removed, the eastern equatorial Pacific can be obtained in many sets of data. The long-term cold trend of SST and the Western Pacific warm trend.CTM is a sea air coupling mode, and its long-term cold trend is the response of the ocean dynamic process to global warming. In this paper, in view of the lack of research on the dynamic feedback process in the past, the internal dynamic process of CTM under the background of global warming is systematically established from the heat budget equation. Using the sea temperature heat budget equation in the equatorial east Pacific, it is found that the net heat flux has a damping effect on CTM, and the four current advection terms (-u '? T? X, -v? T'? Y, -w? T '? Z, and -w' t?) affect the sea temperature change. In them, the vertical advection corresponding to the climate state is the most important of the long-term cold trend. In addition, the long-term cold trend of the -w? T '? Z advection term is mainly controlled by the reduced vertical sea temperature anomaly gradient (? T'? Z) under the background of global warming. And the other three items have little contribution to the long-term cold trend of CTM. (2) the influence of the cold tongue mode on the ENSO in the tropical Pacific under global warming background is from CTM as a global warming tropical Taiping. The physical mechanism of CTM regulation of ENSO thermocline feedback under the background of global warming is proposed. When the strong positive CTM is superimposed on Elni? O, the cold SSTA of CTM in the eastern equatorial Pacific makes Elni o weaker in the SSTA of the region and further causes Elni o warm center to move westward along the equator, which is in the middle of the near future. The frequent occurrence of type Elni? O is closely related. In addition, the warm SSTA of the strong positive CTM leads to the warming of Elni? O outside the equatorial eastern Pacific, which further causes the SSTA in the equatorial western Pacific and the equatorial SSTA to be warmer, leading to the widening of the meridional and latitudinal width of Elni o. Sta makes the cold SSTA of the Lani? A enhanced in the region. And the SSTA center of LaNi a remains unchanged in the equatorial east Pacific. At the same time, the warm SSTA outside the equatorial east Pacific causes Lani a to become warmer in the western equatorial Pacific and equatorial Pacific, which causes the meridional and zonal width to narrow. The above phenomenon is due to the cold equatorial Pacific. The study on the response of the sea temperature outside the tongue area and the cold tongue region to the global warming. Based on the conclusion (1), the -w? T '? Z advection is the main contribution to the long-term cold trend of CTM, which corresponds to the thermocline feedback process in the ENSO theory. Therefore, when the strong positive CTM is superimposed on the Elni? O, the temperature of the eastern equatorial Pacific will be suppressed. The jump layer feedback makes the intensity of the Elni o in the region weakened. And when the strong positive CTM is superimposed on Lani? A, it will strengthen the thermocline feedback in the eastern equatorial Pacific and enhance the intensity of the Lani? A in this region. And, in the charge discharge ENSO model, the long cold trend corresponding to CTM is added to verify this view. (3) in cmip5 history experiment Model simulation of cold tongue mode uses 20 cmip5 models to evaluate the simulation ability of ENSO and CTM spatiotemporal characteristics under historical experiments. Among them, 5 modes (cesm1-cam5, cmcc-cm, fgoals-g2, ipsl-cm5b-lr, noresm1-m) can basically simulate the ENSO center position and the spatial characteristics of the horseshoe SSTA and the characteristics of the interannual oscillation of 2 to 7 years, as well as the characteristics of the interannual oscillation of 2 to 7 years. The reverse phase changes of SSTA in the cold tongue region and cold tongue region of the tropical Pacific CTM and the main long-term cold trend of CTM. In addition, the response of the 5 models to the global warming in the cold tongue region of the equatorial east Pacific is better. That is, the vertical sea temperature gradient (? T '? Z) of the equatorial east Pacific Ocean (? T'? Z) is cooled in the climate under the background of global warming. Under the action of upflow, the cold advection term (-w? T '? Z) will eventually lead to the long-term cold trend of the CTM. (4) the interannual variation of the cold tongue mode in the experiment before the CMIP5 industrial revolution is under the piControl test, and the interannual variation and physical mechanism of the CTM are analyzed. It is confirmed that CTM is still a real physical mode without global warming coercion. The results show that the interannual variation of ENSO and CTM in this experiment is based on the feedback from the equatorial Eastward Transmission of Kelvin wave and Bjerknes, which makes the two people have close physical connections, which are as follows: El Ni? O, CTM, La Ni, a, -CTM, and results. There are interannual variations, such as the interannual oscillation of CTM from 1940 to 1980. In observation, the process of El Ni? O to CTM or La Ni? A to -CTM is consistent with the model, but CTM > La Ni? It may be due to the fact that CTM is forced by global warming to cause long-term cold trend and the interannual signal is too weak.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：P732

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