本文選題：渤海　切入點：經(jīng)濟(jì)　出處：《海洋湖沼通報》2016年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：為探究我國渤海沿岸地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與海洋環(huán)境污染的相關(guān)性,以渤海沿岸13個城市為調(diào)查區(qū)域,以1990至2014年的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)和入海排污量統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),利用環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線模型分析了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與工業(yè)廢水入海量、城鎮(zhèn)污水入海量以及廢水入�？偭康年P(guān)系。研究結(jié)果表明:統(tǒng)計年度中渤海沿岸地區(qū)人均GDP與工業(yè)廢水入海量之間的關(guān)系尚不明確,但與城鎮(zhèn)污水入海量和廢水入�？偭烤鶠檎齍型關(guān)系,說明該地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對海洋環(huán)境污染具有直接推動作用。為判斷未來的發(fā)展趨勢,本文對2015—2020年的增長狀況進(jìn)行了預(yù)測,在與歷史數(shù)據(jù)集成后進(jìn)行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)人均GDP與工業(yè)廢水入海量轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榈筃型曲線關(guān)系,與城鎮(zhèn)污水入海量和廢水入�？偭恐g轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榈筓型關(guān)系,其轉(zhuǎn)折點發(fā)生在2017年前后,說明近年來渤海沿岸地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與入海排污量的關(guān)系已開始發(fā)生逆轉(zhuǎn),如得以繼續(xù)堅持,可望步入良性互動階段。
[Abstract]:In order to explore the correlation between economic development and marine environmental pollution in the coastal areas of Bohai Sea in China, 13 cities along the Bohai Sea were taken as the investigation areas, and based on the economic indicators and the statistical data of sewage discharged into the sea from 1990 to 2014. The environmental Kuznets curve model is used to analyze the economic growth and industrial wastewater. The research results show that the relationship between GDP per capita and industrial wastewater in the coastal areas of Bohai Sea in statistical year is not clear. However, there is a positive U-type relationship with the amount of urban sewage and the total amount of wastewater into the sea, which indicates that the economic growth in this area has a direct role in promoting marine environmental pollution. In order to judge the future development trend, this paper forecasts the growth situation in 2015-2020. After analyzing the integration with historical data, it is found that the relationship between GDP per capita and industrial wastewater volume is transformed into inverted N-type curve, and the relationship between urban sewage mass and total wastewater into sea becomes inverted U-shaped, and the turning point occurs around 2017. It shows that the relationship between the economic growth and the amount of sewage discharged into the Bohai Sea has begun to reverse in recent years, and if it can continue to persist, it is expected to enter the stage of benign interaction.
【作者單位】： 大連海事大學(xué)交通運輸管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：遼寧省科技計劃項目教育部人文社會科學(xué)研究規(guī)劃基金項目(12YJA630128);遼寧省科技計劃項目(2012220008)資助
【分類號】：X55;F127

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本文編號：1627060