本文關(guān)鍵詞： 氣候變化 風(fēng)暴潮 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估 廣東省 海平面上升　出處：《科技導(dǎo)報(bào)》2017年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：隨著氣候變化的影響,廣東沿海地區(qū)臺(tái)風(fēng)風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害時(shí)空分布逐漸發(fā)生變化。本文根據(jù)近30年來(lái)廣東沿海地區(qū)18個(gè)驗(yàn)潮站的風(fēng)暴潮資料以及近60年來(lái)西北太平洋熱帶氣旋資料,結(jié)合前人對(duì)西北太平洋熱帶氣旋與海表溫度關(guān)系研究以及對(duì)珠江三角洲地區(qū)海平面上升趨勢(shì)的預(yù)測(cè)研究,利用Arc GIS空間分析技術(shù),對(duì)2050年廣東省沿海地區(qū)風(fēng)暴潮淹沒(méi)范圍進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),并對(duì)不同區(qū)域風(fēng)暴潮的危險(xiǎn)性進(jìn)行了分析評(píng)價(jià)。從社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)、土地利用、生態(tài)環(huán)境、濱海構(gòu)造物和承災(zāi)能力5個(gè)方面構(gòu)建風(fēng)暴潮承災(zāi)體脆弱性評(píng)估體系,完善了廣東省沿海地區(qū)風(fēng)暴潮脆弱性指標(biāo)預(yù)測(cè)模型,通過(guò)該模型對(duì)2050年該地區(qū)風(fēng)暴潮脆弱性進(jìn)行了評(píng)估。在未來(lái)氣候變化影響下風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)和脆弱性評(píng)估的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)2050年廣東沿海地區(qū)風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了綜合評(píng)估,繪制了該地區(qū)風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)圖。
[Abstract]:With the effects of climate change. The temporal and spatial distribution of typhoon storm surge in coastal areas of Guangdong has gradually changed. Based on the storm surge data of 18 tidal stations in Guangdong coastal area in the past 30 years and the tropical cyclone data of the northwest Pacific in the last 60 years. Combined with previous studies on the relationship between tropical cyclones and sea surface temperature in the Northwest Pacific and prediction of sea-level rise trends in the Pearl River Delta region, Arc GIS spatial analysis technique is used. In 2050, the inundation range of storm surges in coastal areas of Guangdong Province was predicted, and the risk of storm surges in different regions was analyzed and evaluated from the aspects of social economy, land use and ecological environment. The vulnerability assessment system of storm surge disaster bearing body is constructed in five aspects of coastal structure and disaster bearing ability, and the prediction model of storm surge vulnerability index is improved in Guangdong coastal area. Through this model, the vulnerability of storm surge in this area was assessed in 2050. Based on the risk assessment and vulnerability assessment of storm surge disaster under the influence of climate change in the future. In 2050, a comprehensive assessment of storm surge disaster risk in Guangdong coastal area was carried out, and a map of storm surge disaster risk assessment in this area was drawn.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究所;中國(guó)科學(xué)院地理科學(xué)與資源研究所;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目(41571041) “十二五”國(guó)家科技支撐計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2013BAC09B00) 農(nóng)業(yè)部“中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)適應(yīng)氣候變化關(guān)鍵技術(shù)引進(jìn)”項(xiàng)目(2011-G9)
【分類號(hào)】：P731.23
【正文快照】： 未來(lái)氣候變化將對(duì)海平面上升、全球環(huán)流系統(tǒng)變化、全球環(huán)境變化、生態(tài)系統(tǒng)退化以及冰凍圈退縮等產(chǎn)生顯著影響,進(jìn)而影響到人類社會(huì)生活的方方面面[1]。風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害是由臺(tái)風(fēng)等強(qiáng)熱帶天氣系統(tǒng)或溫帶天氣系統(tǒng)所引起的,因此未來(lái)氣候變化將對(duì)風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)生顯著的影響。一方面,未

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