本文關(guān)鍵詞： 海洋溢油 風(fēng)險分級 風(fēng)險分區(qū) 大連海域 ArcGIS　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國海洋石油勘探開發(fā)速度和規(guī)模的不斷增長,海上溢油事故頻頻發(fā)生,大量石油烴通過各種途徑進(jìn)入海洋,不僅造成了能源嚴(yán)重浪費(fèi),同時給海洋生態(tài)環(huán)境、人類健康和社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展帶來了難以估量的危害與損失。因此,開展海域溢油事故風(fēng)險評價及分級分區(qū)方法研究,對于促進(jìn)海域溢油污染應(yīng)急能力建設(shè),減小事故污染損失和降低對周圍環(huán)境的危害,具有重要的理論意義和實(shí)用價值。本文首先對海上整個石油儲運(yùn)及開采平臺系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了風(fēng)險源辨識與危害因素分析,總結(jié)得出海上溢油事故風(fēng)險源主要有四大來源,分別是石油平臺、船舶運(yùn)輸、油品儲罐和輸油管道。同時本文在對海洋歷史溢油事故數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)的基礎(chǔ)上,全面分析了海洋溢油風(fēng)險因素,總結(jié)為設(shè)施設(shè)備、自然環(huán)境、通航環(huán)境及人為因素四類。然后在基于溢油因素分析的基礎(chǔ)上,以風(fēng)險定義R=P×C為理論依據(jù)(其中,R、P、C分別代表風(fēng)險、概率和后果),調(diào)查運(yùn)輸船舶、油品儲罐、輸油管線、石油平臺四類海上溢油風(fēng)險源的規(guī)模與分布,考慮歷史溢油事故情況和海域敏感目標(biāo),采用數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)方法和地理信息技術(shù),建立了溢油污染風(fēng)險分級分區(qū)的綜合評價模型,即Rk=Pk×Ck×Sk(其中,Pk、Ck、Sk分別代表單元網(wǎng)格小區(qū)綜合風(fēng)險概率指數(shù)、綜合溢油污染指數(shù)和綜合溢油敏感系數(shù)),并將計(jì)算結(jié)果通過GIS平臺直觀可視化顯示。最后,本文在研究了大連港海域交通現(xiàn)狀、自然條件和環(huán)境敏感資源概況的基礎(chǔ)上,對大連港海域進(jìn)行了溢油風(fēng)險綜合評價及分級分區(qū)的實(shí)例研究。研究以事故可能性指數(shù)和風(fēng)險源危險性指數(shù)計(jì)算綜合風(fēng)險概率指數(shù),以綜合風(fēng)險概率指數(shù)、綜合溢油污染指數(shù)、綜合溢油敏感系數(shù)建立起綜合評價模型,最終計(jì)算得到綜合溢油風(fēng)險值,并根據(jù)風(fēng)險值進(jìn)行了分級分區(qū)。結(jié)果顯示：溢油風(fēng)險值R4的研究海域?yàn)榈惋L(fēng)險區(qū),4≤R10的海域?yàn)檩^低風(fēng)險區(qū),10R20的海域?yàn)橹酗L(fēng)險區(qū),20≤R30的海域?yàn)檩^高風(fēng)險區(qū),R≥30的海域?yàn)楦唢L(fēng)險區(qū)。分區(qū)結(jié)果基本符合大連海域溢油風(fēng)險現(xiàn)狀,可為海洋溢油風(fēng)險管理提供決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the increasing speed and scale of offshore oil exploration and development in China, oil spills occur frequently. A large number of petroleum hydrocarbons enter the ocean through various ways, which not only cause serious energy waste. At the same time, it brings incalculable harm and loss to marine ecological environment, human health and social economic development. It can promote the construction of emergency response capacity of oil spill pollution, reduce the loss of accident pollution and reduce the harm to the surrounding environment. It has important theoretical significance and practical value. Firstly, the risk source identification and hazard factor analysis of the whole offshore oil storage, transportation and exploitation platform system are carried out in this paper. It is concluded that there are four main sources of oil spill accident risk, namely, oil platform, ship transportation, oil storage tank and oil pipeline. At the same time, this paper is based on the statistics of marine oil spill accident data. The risk factors of marine oil spill are analyzed comprehensively, including facilities, natural environment, navigation environment and human factors. Then, based on the analysis of oil spill factors, four kinds of marine oil spill risk factors are summarized. On the basis of risk definition, RPX C represents risk, probability and consequence respectively, investigation of shipping vessel, oil storage tank and oil pipeline. The scale and distribution of four types of offshore oil spill risk sources on oil platforms, considering the historical oil spill accidents and sensitive targets in the sea area, adopting mathematical statistical method and geographic information technology. A comprehensive evaluation model of oil spill risk classification is established, that is, Rk=Pk 脳 C _ k 脳 SkS _ k represents the comprehensive risk probability index of cell grid area respectively. The oil spill pollution index and the oil spill sensitivity coefficient are synthesized, and the calculation results are visualized by GIS platform. Finally, the present traffic situation of Dalian Port is studied in this paper. Natural conditions and environmentally sensitive resource profiles based on. A case study of oil spill risk assessment and classification in Dalian Port was carried out. The comprehensive risk probability index was calculated by accident possibility index and risk source risk index, and the comprehensive risk probability index was used to calculate the comprehensive risk probability index. Comprehensive evaluation model is established by synthesizing oil spill pollution index and oil spill sensitivity coefficient. Finally, the comprehensive oil spill risk value is calculated. The results show that the study area of oil spill risk value R4 is a low risk area with a low risk area of 4 鈮，

本文編號：1463523