發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-21 15:24

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 海平面高度 線性趨勢 年最大值 模式模擬 模式預(yù)估　出處：《南京信息工程大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在全球變暖的背景下,熱膨脹和冰蓋融化等效應(yīng)導(dǎo)致的全球海平面上升,直接影響到島嶼和沿海地區(qū)人類活動(dòng)。因此,研究海平面變化具有重要意義。本文利用驗(yàn)潮站的驗(yàn)潮記錄,AVISO觀測的海平面異常,Church等(2011)驗(yàn)潮站和衛(wèi)星資料的修正資料、CFSR再分析資料的海表風(fēng)應(yīng)力、OAFlux的海表面熱通量資料,Ishii的SST資料以及太平洋十年濤動(dòng)指數(shù)(PDO)和南方濤動(dòng)指數(shù)(SOI)。發(fā)現(xiàn)中國海域無論是近40年(1970-2013)還是近20年(1993-2013)海平面均顯著上升。各海區(qū)近20年的海平面上升有加速的趨勢,且各時(shí)段上升速率大于全球平均海平面上升率。北部海域秋季最大,冬季最小；南海海域春季最大,秋季最小。AVISO資料在描述近20年海平面變化的線性趨勢上與驗(yàn)潮站資料接近,較大的差異主要是由驗(yàn)潮站地表發(fā)生升降引起的。發(fā)現(xiàn)實(shí)際發(fā)生極端海表高度事件的機(jī)率比年平均海平面變化所體現(xiàn)出來的要大。年最大值的趨勢與年際和年代際變化密切相關(guān),造成年最大值的線性趨勢大于年平均的線性趨勢的直接原因是10月份凈海表熱通量的顯著增加,而海表短波輻射的增加以及與海表風(fēng)速減弱造成的潛熱釋放的減少是導(dǎo)致凈熱通量增加的主要因子。對(duì)模式分析發(fā)現(xiàn)在所選的16個(gè)模式中1950-2001年模擬結(jié)果不論在BYE海域還是SCS海域都比Church計(jì)算結(jié)果要弱的多而且空間上沒有相似的分布。1993-2005年模擬結(jié)果要比前者好很多,在BYE海域MIROC-ESM模擬的空間特征和量值大小上都與觀測相似。CMIP5模式對(duì)中國沿海海平面預(yù)估發(fā)現(xiàn)在不同場景不同模式下BYE、SCS海域海平面上升趨勢模擬結(jié)果都不同,但大部分模式預(yù)估的結(jié)果在未來100年BYE、SCS海域呈上升趨勢。MIROC-ESM模式預(yù)估的結(jié)果在RCP4.5、RCP8.5場景下均為海平面上升,上升趨勢分別約為2. lmm/a、2.6mm/a。
[Abstract]:In the context of global warming, global sea level rise due to effects such as thermal expansion and ice sheet melting has a direct impact on human activities in islands and coastal areas. It is of great significance to study sea level change. In this paper, the corrected data of tide gauge and satellite data are obtained by means of AVISO observation of sea level anomaly Church and so on. Sea surface heat flux data of CFSR reanalysis data and OAFlux reanalysis data. The SST data of Ishii and the Pacific Oscillation Index (Ishii) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). It is found that the sea area of China is no matter in the last 40 years (1970-2013). In the last 20 years (1993-2013), the sea level has risen significantly. The sea level rise in each sea area has a tendency to accelerate in the past 20 years. And the rising rate of sea level in each period is larger than the global average sea level rise rate. The northern sea area is the largest in autumn and the smallest in winter. The sea area in the South China Sea is the largest in spring and the smallest in autumn. AVISO data are close to the tide gauge data in describing the linear trend of sea level change in recent 20 years. The larger difference is mainly caused by the rise and fall of the surface of the tide gauge station. It is found that the probability of the actual extreme sea surface height event is greater than that of the annual mean sea level change. International change is closely related. The direct reason that the linear trend of annual maximum value is larger than the linear trend of annual average is the significant increase of net sea surface heat flux in October. The increase of sea surface shortwave radiation and the decrease of latent heat release due to the weakening of sea surface wind speed are the main factors leading to the increase of net heat flux. Analysis of the model shows that in the 16 selected models, 1950-2001 is the main factor leading to the increase of net heat flux. The annual simulation results are much weaker than the Church results in both BYE and SCS waters and there is no similar spatial distribution. 1993-2005 simulation results are much better than the former. . The spatial characteristics and magnitude of MIROC-ESM simulation in BYE sea area are similar to observations. CMIP5 model has been found in different scenarios and different models for the prediction of sea level in coastal China. The simulated results of sea level rise trend in SCS are different, but most of the predicted results of the model are BYE in the next 100 years. The results predicted by MIROC-ESM model in SCS are all sea level rise under RCP4.5 / RCP8.5 scenario, and the rising trend is about 2. Lmm/a respectively. 2.6mm/a.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京信息工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：P731.23
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本文編號(hào)：1451840