本文關鍵詞：2007-2012年浙南洞頭沿海赤潮與氣象關系研究　出處：《蘭州大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 赤潮 氣象要素 影響分析 回歸分析 預報方法

【摘要】：赤潮是一種復雜而影響嚴重的海洋環(huán)境災害。氣象因素是誘發(fā)赤潮災害的重要條件。赤潮災害的成因及相關的預警預報防治一直是赤潮災害研究工作的重點和難點,本文首先對洞頭沿海2007-2012年的赤潮個例及氣象觀測資料進行了分析與研究,得出洞頭獨特的地理位置、海島地形、臨�；ず宛B(yǎng)殖產(chǎn)業(yè)以及氣候條件決定了洞頭沿海是個赤潮災害高發(fā)區(qū)。并且赤潮發(fā)生時間主要在5-9月份,絕大部分發(fā)生在每年的5-6月份,同時近年來洞頭沿海赤潮發(fā)生發(fā)展持續(xù)時間呈穩(wěn)定增加態(tài)勢。通過對洞頭沿海赤潮的時空分布、氣象要素影響分析,獲得了洞頭沿海赤潮爆發(fā)時的氣象要素變化特征、大氣環(huán)流變化情況及主要天氣影響系統(tǒng),對未來利用氣象條件預報赤潮具有指導意義。其次,通過對三個赤潮個例歷史過程的影響分析,獲得影響洞頭沿海赤潮發(fā)生的大氣環(huán)流特征：500hPa高度場上受副熱帶高壓影響,850hPa流場維持西南暖濕氣流,地面維持長時間弱的偏東或偏南風。另外,在春夏交替季節(jié),洞頭沿海處在西風帶和東風帶的交界處,大氣環(huán)流整體上處于保持穩(wěn)定或少動的狀態(tài),這也為赤潮的持續(xù)性爆發(fā)提供了有利的大氣環(huán)境。大氣環(huán)流的調(diào)整改變對赤潮的發(fā)生發(fā)展具有重要影響,當大氣環(huán)流發(fā)生劇烈變化或受某個大尺度系統(tǒng)影響時,赤潮的維持狀態(tài)將發(fā)生改變,且不同季節(jié)發(fā)生的赤潮,主導影響的氣象要素也不同,降水和風力對赤潮過程的“預警”作用值得關注。通過回歸分析發(fā)現(xiàn),平均氣壓、氣溫和相對濕度與赤潮藻類濃度呈正相關,而降水量、日照時數(shù)、風速等與赤潮藻類濃度為負相關,平均風速與赤潮藻類濃度的相關系數(shù)絕對值最大,其次是日照時數(shù),第三是日降水量,所有的相關系數(shù)均通過95%信度的顯著性檢驗。同時利用多元回歸分析,得到一個以藻類濃度為因變量,其他氣象要素為自變量的多元線性回歸方程,并進行預報效果檢驗,得到的預報值與實況值總體上比較接近,符合監(jiān)測要求,具有一定的參考價值。最后,建立一種適合洞頭沿海赤潮的氣象學預報模型和氣象服務方案。
[Abstract]:Red tide is a complex and serious impact on the marine environment disasters. Meteorological factors is an important condition for inducing red tide. Causes of red tide forecast and control the red tide disaster has been the focus and difficulty of research work, this paper firstly analyzes and studies the case of red tide and meteorological data of 2007-2012 years of Dongtou coast, the Dongtou unique geographical location, island, coastal chemical and aquaculture industry and climate conditions in coastal areas of Dongtou province is a high incidence area of red tide and red tide occurred mainly in the 5-9 month time, the vast majority in every 5-6 months, but in recent years, Dongtou coastal red tide occurrence and development duration showed a steady increase trend. Through time and space the distribution of red tide in the coastal Dongtou, analyzed the influence of meteorological factors, the variation characteristics of meteorological elements in Dongtou coastal red tide outbreak, large The gas circulation changes and main weather system, which has guiding significance for future use of meteorological condition forecast of red tide. Secondly, the influence on the three red tide case history analysis, influence of atmospheric circulation characteristics of Dongtou coastal red tide: 500hPa height field affected by the subtropical high, the 850hPa flow to maintain the Southwest warm air, ground maintain a long time weak easterly or southerly winds. In addition, in the spring and summer season, the Dongtou coast in the westerly and easterly junction, atmospheric circulation on the whole in a state of stable or less, which also provides a favorable environment for atmospheric persistent red tide outbreak. Has an important influence on the atmospheric circulation change on the occurrence and development of red tide, when the atmospheric circulation changes or affected by a large scale system, maintain the state of red tide will be changed, and in different seasons Red tide festival takes place, the dominant effect of different meteorological factors, precipitation and wind to the red tide of "early warning" effect is remarkable. The regression analysis shows that the average air pressure, air temperature and relative humidity were positively related with algae concentration, while the precipitation, sunshine duration, wind speed and algae concentration are negatively correlated. The correlation coefficient of average wind speed and the maximum absolute value of algae concentration, followed by third hours of sunshine, precipitation and the correlation coefficients all through 95% significance test reliability. At the same time using multiple regression analysis to a dependent variable with algae concentration and other meteorological factors as variables in multiple linear regression equation and forecast effect test, the forecast value and the actual value is closer to the overall, meet the monitoring requirements, has a certain reference value. Finally, the establishment of a suitable for Dongtou coastal red tide The meteorology forecast model and the meteorological service plan.

【學位授予單位】：蘭州大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X55;X16

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相關期刊論文 前1條

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本文編號：1369345