過去1500年東亞季風(fēng)氣候年代—百年尺度變化特征及成因機(jī)制
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-06-05 05:09
【摘要】：利用通用地球系統(tǒng)模式(Community Earth System Model,簡稱CESM)開展的過去1500年氣候模擬試驗(yàn)結(jié)果,在驗(yàn)證模式模擬性能的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了過去1500年東亞夏季降水、冬季溫度的年代-百年尺度時(shí)空變化特征以及典型暖期東亞夏季風(fēng)年代際變化特征,揭示了影響東亞季風(fēng)氣候年代-百年尺度變化的成因機(jī)制,對提高未來十年至百年東亞季風(fēng)氣候變化的預(yù)測精度,更好地認(rèn)識現(xiàn)代暖期的歷史地位具有重要的科學(xué)意義。本文首先利用CESM模擬的地表溫度、降水、850 hPa風(fēng)場、氣壓場以及海表溫度場與觀測/再分析資料和重建資料進(jìn)行對比分析,結(jié)果表明CESM模式能夠較好地再現(xiàn)氣候平均態(tài)的特征,模式模擬的東亞地區(qū)溫度和降水的季節(jié)變化特征與觀測/再分析資料較為一致;模式模擬與重建的中國區(qū)域溫度在年代-百年尺度上的變率具有較好的對應(yīng)。因此,CESM模式的模擬結(jié)果較為合理,可以用于本文研究。第二,對全強(qiáng)迫試驗(yàn)?zāi)M的過去1500年東亞夏季降水、冬季溫度年代-百年尺度變化分析發(fā)現(xiàn),在1250年、1450年、1600年、1750年以及1815年左右均有年代尺度的干旱;在對應(yīng)的空間分布上,長江以南和華北地區(qū)夏季降水偏多,黃河流域至日本南部一帶夏季降水偏少,與中世紀(jì)暖期東亞夏季風(fēng)降水年代際變化的空間特征一致。現(xiàn)代暖期東亞夏季風(fēng)降水的主模態(tài)表現(xiàn)為南北反相的分布特征。兩個(gè)典型暖期東亞夏季風(fēng)變化的主周期均為準(zhǔn)10年和準(zhǔn)20年。百年尺度上,模擬的東亞夏季降水在530-710年、850-950年、1250-1350年、1440-1530年、1630-1860 為負(fù)距平,在 730-840 年、1060-1240 年、1330-1420 年、1520-1620年為正距平�？臻g分布上,整個(gè)中國東部地區(qū)夏季降水增加。東亞冬季溫度在13世紀(jì)中期、15世紀(jì)中期以及1815年左右均有年代尺度的降溫。空間分布上表現(xiàn)為全區(qū)一致增溫的特征,陸地增溫幅度大于海洋,東亞冬季風(fēng)減弱。百年尺度上,冬季溫度變化在800-1250年為正距平、1400-1900年為負(fù)距平以及1900-2000年為正距平,分別對應(yīng)中世紀(jì)暖期、小冰期和現(xiàn)代暖期�？臻g分布上,整個(gè)東亞地區(qū)溫度一致增加,中國東部110°E以西地區(qū)增溫幅度高于110°E以東地區(qū)。第三,通過將各單因子強(qiáng)迫序列與其驅(qū)動(dòng)下的敏感性試驗(yàn)與全強(qiáng)迫試驗(yàn)的東亞夏季降水、冬季溫度年代-百年尺度變化進(jìn)行對比發(fā)現(xiàn),年代尺度上,太陽輻射、火山活動(dòng)以及氣候系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部變率是影響過去1500年東亞夏季降水變化的主要影響因子,而土地利用/覆蓋以及溫室氣體外強(qiáng)迫因子對東亞夏季降水的影響不大�？臻g分布上,東亞地區(qū)旱澇格局的主控因子是氣候系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部變率,太陽輻射和火山活動(dòng)起到了較強(qiáng)的調(diào)制作用。在氣候系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部變率影響下,赤道中東太平洋的冷異常是東亞夏季降水呈“正-負(fù)-正”分布的主要原因。赤道中東太平洋的冷異常使得赤道東風(fēng)增強(qiáng),沃克環(huán)流加強(qiáng),導(dǎo)致熱帶西北太平洋南部增暖,故對流加熱增強(qiáng),進(jìn)而通過Gill型響應(yīng)導(dǎo)致菲律賓海產(chǎn)生氣旋距平環(huán)流,華南降水增多;大氣擾動(dòng)通過羅斯貝波形式向北極方向傳播,導(dǎo)致西北太平洋產(chǎn)生反氣旋性環(huán)流距平,進(jìn)而使得黃河至日本一帶對流減弱,夏季降水減少。在太陽輻射和火山活動(dòng)外強(qiáng)迫因子調(diào)制作用下,西北太平洋西部海溫冷異常與控制試驗(yàn)結(jié)果相比不明顯,進(jìn)而使得黃河流域至日本一帶夏季降水幅度高于控制試驗(yàn)結(jié)果。進(jìn)一步研究發(fā)現(xiàn),北太平洋年代際振蕩(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,簡稱PDO)與典型暖期東亞夏季風(fēng)變化呈顯著反相關(guān)。百年尺度上,過去1500年東亞夏季降水的波動(dòng)變化主要受到太陽輻射、火山活動(dòng)以及溫室氣體的共同影響,土地利用/覆蓋外強(qiáng)迫因子對東亞夏季降水變化沒有顯著的影響�？臻g分布上,太陽輻射和火山活動(dòng)外強(qiáng)迫因子是主控因子。在自然因子作用下,印度洋以及熱帶海洋潛熱通量增加,說明印度洋以及熱帶海洋地區(qū)蒸發(fā)增加,使得向北的水汽輸送增加,導(dǎo)致東亞地區(qū)夏季降水增加。東亞冬季溫度在年代尺度上的時(shí)間變化主要是受火山活動(dòng)以及內(nèi)部變率共同影響,而太陽輻射和人為因子對冬季溫度變化的影響較小�？臻g分布上,氣候系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部變率是過去1500年東亞冬季溫度變化的主控因子,火山活動(dòng)具有一定的調(diào)制作用。在火山活動(dòng)調(diào)制作用下有效太陽輻射減弱,使得全強(qiáng)迫試驗(yàn)?zāi)M的東亞大陸地區(qū)冬季溫度相比控制試驗(yàn)偏低。百年尺度上,過去1500年東亞冬季溫度波動(dòng)變化主要受到太陽輻射和溫室氣體的影響,溫室氣體的影響主要體現(xiàn)在工業(yè)革命之后,C02濃度的增加使得冬季溫度增加,而火山活動(dòng)以及土地利用/覆蓋對東亞冬季溫度變化沒有產(chǎn)生顯著性影響�？臻g分布上,太陽輻射的分布決定了東亞大陸地區(qū)西部溫度高于東部地區(qū)的特征,東亞大陸西部太陽輻射值高于東部地區(qū),使得西部地區(qū)下墊面吸收更多的短波輻射,地表凈輻射通量高于東部,導(dǎo)致東亞大陸西部溫度高于東部。
[Abstract]:The past 1500 years of climate simulation test results of the Universal Earth System Model (CESM), on the basis of the simulation performance of the verification mode, analyzed the summer precipitation in East Asia in the past 1500 years, The characteristics of the time-space change in the age-100 scale of the winter temperature and the characteristics of the intertemporal change of the East Asian summer monsoon in the typical warm period have revealed the mechanism of the cause of the change of the East Asian monsoon climate-100-year scale, and the prediction accuracy of the change of the monsoon climate in East Asia for the next 10 to 100 years, It is of great scientific significance to better understand the historical position of the modern warm period. The paper makes a comparison and analysis of the surface temperature, precipitation,850 hPa wind field, air pressure field and sea surface temperature field and observation/ re-analysis data and reconstruction data simulated by the CESM, and the results show that the CESM mode can better reproduce the characteristics of the climate average state. The seasonal variation of temperature and precipitation in East Asia is consistent with the data of observation/ re-analysis. Therefore, the simulation results of the CESM model are more reasonable and can be used in this paper. Secondly, in the last 1500 years of the simulation of the full-force test, the summer precipitation in East Asia and the winter temperature's-100-year scale change analysis have found that in 1250,1450,1600,1750, and 1815, there was an age-scale drought; on the corresponding spatial distribution, The summer precipitation in the south of the Yangtze and North China is more and more, the summer precipitation in the Yellow River basin to the south of Japan is less, and the spatial characteristics of the intertemporal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon during the Middle Ages are the same. The main mode of the summer monsoon precipitation in East Asia in the modern warm period is characterized by the distribution of the north and the south. The main cycle of the two typical warm-time East Asian summer monsoon changes will be subject to 10-and 20-year periods. In the 100-year scale, the simulated East Asian summer precipitation is in the range of 530-710,850-950,1250-1350,1440-1530,1630-1860 as negative, in the range of 730-840,1060-1240,1330-1420,1520-1620. In the space distribution, the summer precipitation in the eastern part of China is increased. The winter temperature in East Asia was in the middle of the 13th century, the middle of the 15th century and the left and right in 1815. The spatial distribution shows the characteristics of uniform warming in the whole region, and the temperature of the land is greater than that of the sea, and the winter monsoon in East Asia is weakened. In the 100-year scale, the change of temperature in winter is from 800 to 1250 years, from 1400 to 1900, and from 1900 to 2000, respectively, corresponding to the warm periods of the Middle Ages, the small and the modern warm periods. In the space distribution, the temperature of the whole East Asia is increased, and the temperature of the region west of 110 擄 E in the east of China is higher than that of the east of 110 擄 E. Third, by comparing each single-factor forcing sequence with the sensitivity test under its driving and the East Asian summer precipitation of the full-force test, the change of the temperature of the winter-hundred years has been compared and found, in the age scale, the solar radiation, Volcanic activity and the internal variability of the climate system are the main factors that affect the change of summer precipitation in East Asia in the past 1500 years, and the effect of land use/ cover and the external force factors of greenhouse gases on the summer precipitation in East Asia is not great. The main control factors of the drought and flood pattern in East Asia are the internal variability of the climate system, the solar radiation and the volcanic activity. Under the influence of the internal variability of the climate system, the cold anomaly of the Pacific in the middle east of the equator is the main cause of the "positive-negative-positive" distribution of the summer precipitation in East Asia. The cold anomaly in the equatorial Middle East Pacific has led to the enhancement of the equatorial easterly wind and the enhancement of the Walker circulation, resulting in a warm-up in the southern part of the tropical northwest Pacific. The atmospheric disturbance is spread in the direction of the north pole through the form of roberwave, resulting in the anticyclone circulation in the northwest Pacific, so that the convection in the Yellow River to Japan is weakened, and the precipitation in the summer is reduced. Under the effect of the external force of the solar radiation and the volcanic activity, the cold anomaly of the SST in the western Pacific is not obvious compared with the control test results, so that the summer precipitation in the Yellow River basin to Japan is higher than the control test result. The further study found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the North Pacific was significantly anti-related to the changes in the summer monsoon in the typical warm-up period. In the past 1500 years, the change of precipitation in East Asia is mainly influenced by solar radiation, volcanic activity and greenhouse gas, and the external force of land use/ cover has no significant effect on the change of summer precipitation in East Asia. In the spatial distribution, the external force factors of solar radiation and volcanic activity are the main control factors. Under the effect of natural factors, the Indian Ocean and the tropical marine latent heat flux increase, indicating the increase in the evaporation of the Indian Ocean and the tropical marine area, resulting in an increase in the transport of water vapor to the north, resulting in an increase in summer precipitation in East Asia. The temporal changes of the East Asian winter temperature in the age scale are mainly influenced by the volcanic activity and the internal variability, while the effect of solar radiation and man-made factors on the winter temperature change is small. In the space distribution, the internal variability of the climate system is the main control factor of the temperature change of East Asian winter in the last 1500 years, and the volcanic activity has a certain modulation effect. The effective solar radiation is weakened under the action of the volcanic activity, so that the control test is low compared with the winter temperature in the East Asian continental region simulated by the full-force test. in that past 1500 year, the change of the temperature fluctuation of the east Asia is mainly influenced by the solar radiation and the greenhouse gas, and the influence of the greenhouse gas is mainly reflected in the increase of the concentration of the C02 after the industrial revolution, so that the temperature in the winter is increased, The volcanic activity and the land use/ coverage did not have a significant effect on the winter temperature change in East Asia. The distribution of the solar radiation on the distribution of the solar radiation determines that the temperature of the western region of the East Asian region is higher than that of the eastern region, and the solar radiation value in the western region of East Asia is higher than that of the eastern region, so that the lower surface of the western region can absorb more short-wave radiation, the net radiation flux of the surface is higher than that of the east, In that eastern part of east Asia, the temperature is higher than that of the east.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：P532
本文編號：2493280
[Abstract]:The past 1500 years of climate simulation test results of the Universal Earth System Model (CESM), on the basis of the simulation performance of the verification mode, analyzed the summer precipitation in East Asia in the past 1500 years, The characteristics of the time-space change in the age-100 scale of the winter temperature and the characteristics of the intertemporal change of the East Asian summer monsoon in the typical warm period have revealed the mechanism of the cause of the change of the East Asian monsoon climate-100-year scale, and the prediction accuracy of the change of the monsoon climate in East Asia for the next 10 to 100 years, It is of great scientific significance to better understand the historical position of the modern warm period. The paper makes a comparison and analysis of the surface temperature, precipitation,850 hPa wind field, air pressure field and sea surface temperature field and observation/ re-analysis data and reconstruction data simulated by the CESM, and the results show that the CESM mode can better reproduce the characteristics of the climate average state. The seasonal variation of temperature and precipitation in East Asia is consistent with the data of observation/ re-analysis. Therefore, the simulation results of the CESM model are more reasonable and can be used in this paper. Secondly, in the last 1500 years of the simulation of the full-force test, the summer precipitation in East Asia and the winter temperature's-100-year scale change analysis have found that in 1250,1450,1600,1750, and 1815, there was an age-scale drought; on the corresponding spatial distribution, The summer precipitation in the south of the Yangtze and North China is more and more, the summer precipitation in the Yellow River basin to the south of Japan is less, and the spatial characteristics of the intertemporal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon during the Middle Ages are the same. The main mode of the summer monsoon precipitation in East Asia in the modern warm period is characterized by the distribution of the north and the south. The main cycle of the two typical warm-time East Asian summer monsoon changes will be subject to 10-and 20-year periods. In the 100-year scale, the simulated East Asian summer precipitation is in the range of 530-710,850-950,1250-1350,1440-1530,1630-1860 as negative, in the range of 730-840,1060-1240,1330-1420,1520-1620. In the space distribution, the summer precipitation in the eastern part of China is increased. The winter temperature in East Asia was in the middle of the 13th century, the middle of the 15th century and the left and right in 1815. The spatial distribution shows the characteristics of uniform warming in the whole region, and the temperature of the land is greater than that of the sea, and the winter monsoon in East Asia is weakened. In the 100-year scale, the change of temperature in winter is from 800 to 1250 years, from 1400 to 1900, and from 1900 to 2000, respectively, corresponding to the warm periods of the Middle Ages, the small and the modern warm periods. In the space distribution, the temperature of the whole East Asia is increased, and the temperature of the region west of 110 擄 E in the east of China is higher than that of the east of 110 擄 E. Third, by comparing each single-factor forcing sequence with the sensitivity test under its driving and the East Asian summer precipitation of the full-force test, the change of the temperature of the winter-hundred years has been compared and found, in the age scale, the solar radiation, Volcanic activity and the internal variability of the climate system are the main factors that affect the change of summer precipitation in East Asia in the past 1500 years, and the effect of land use/ cover and the external force factors of greenhouse gases on the summer precipitation in East Asia is not great. The main control factors of the drought and flood pattern in East Asia are the internal variability of the climate system, the solar radiation and the volcanic activity. Under the influence of the internal variability of the climate system, the cold anomaly of the Pacific in the middle east of the equator is the main cause of the "positive-negative-positive" distribution of the summer precipitation in East Asia. The cold anomaly in the equatorial Middle East Pacific has led to the enhancement of the equatorial easterly wind and the enhancement of the Walker circulation, resulting in a warm-up in the southern part of the tropical northwest Pacific. The atmospheric disturbance is spread in the direction of the north pole through the form of roberwave, resulting in the anticyclone circulation in the northwest Pacific, so that the convection in the Yellow River to Japan is weakened, and the precipitation in the summer is reduced. Under the effect of the external force of the solar radiation and the volcanic activity, the cold anomaly of the SST in the western Pacific is not obvious compared with the control test results, so that the summer precipitation in the Yellow River basin to Japan is higher than the control test result. The further study found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the North Pacific was significantly anti-related to the changes in the summer monsoon in the typical warm-up period. In the past 1500 years, the change of precipitation in East Asia is mainly influenced by solar radiation, volcanic activity and greenhouse gas, and the external force of land use/ cover has no significant effect on the change of summer precipitation in East Asia. In the spatial distribution, the external force factors of solar radiation and volcanic activity are the main control factors. Under the effect of natural factors, the Indian Ocean and the tropical marine latent heat flux increase, indicating the increase in the evaporation of the Indian Ocean and the tropical marine area, resulting in an increase in the transport of water vapor to the north, resulting in an increase in summer precipitation in East Asia. The temporal changes of the East Asian winter temperature in the age scale are mainly influenced by the volcanic activity and the internal variability, while the effect of solar radiation and man-made factors on the winter temperature change is small. In the space distribution, the internal variability of the climate system is the main control factor of the temperature change of East Asian winter in the last 1500 years, and the volcanic activity has a certain modulation effect. The effective solar radiation is weakened under the action of the volcanic activity, so that the control test is low compared with the winter temperature in the East Asian continental region simulated by the full-force test. in that past 1500 year, the change of the temperature fluctuation of the east Asia is mainly influenced by the solar radiation and the greenhouse gas, and the influence of the greenhouse gas is mainly reflected in the increase of the concentration of the C02 after the industrial revolution, so that the temperature in the winter is increased, The volcanic activity and the land use/ coverage did not have a significant effect on the winter temperature change in East Asia. The distribution of the solar radiation on the distribution of the solar radiation determines that the temperature of the western region of the East Asian region is higher than that of the eastern region, and the solar radiation value in the western region of East Asia is higher than that of the eastern region, so that the lower surface of the western region can absorb more short-wave radiation, the net radiation flux of the surface is higher than that of the east, In that eastern part of east Asia, the temperature is higher than that of the east.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：P532
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