【摘要】：強地震動是地震工程中引起土木工程結構破壞的主要原因,作為地震預測、工程抗震以及震后救災的基礎,地震動衰減關系及其不確定性對地震危險性分析有著重大的影響。近些年,研究主余震序列對結構的影響成為熱點,現(xiàn)有結構的地震反應分析和抗震設計一般只考慮主震,但由于結構的累積損傷效應,余震對結構物的倒塌常常起關鍵性的作用�，F(xiàn)有的成果主要集中在主震方面,對余震的研究較少,尤其是余震序列,為了全面考慮余震對結構的影響,合理地進行地震動參數(shù)的設計,有必要對余震進行地震動衰減關系的研究。地震序列指的是發(fā)生在狹小空間內(nèi)的一系列地震,其震源機制可能存在聯(lián)系或有相似的發(fā)震背景,于是,同一場地和同一震源區(qū)對地震動衰減關系的不確定性影響,是值得充分考慮的。臺灣集集地震記錄到了豐富的強震動記錄,地震序列規(guī)模驚人,尤其是余震序列數(shù)量更是龐大,有利于推進余震地震動衰減特性及其不確定性的研究。本文以集集地震余震地震動記錄為基礎建立數(shù)據(jù)庫,采用隨機效應方法對所選用數(shù)據(jù)進行地震動衰減關系的統(tǒng)計回歸,通過對衰減結果的分析和對誤差的分解,獲得臺灣地區(qū)的地震動特性以及不同因素對地震動的影響特征,從而為更為合理地減小地震動衰減模型的不確定性提供些參考和依據(jù)。本文研究工作的主要內(nèi)容和結果包括:(1)搜集震源信息和臺站場地資料,建立集集地震余震地震動數(shù)據(jù)庫,分析臺灣地區(qū)地震動基本特性。針對NGA計劃中的CB08模型,從傳播路徑、震源特性和反應譜三個方面進行適用性分析。發(fā)現(xiàn)CB08模型現(xiàn)有回歸結果與集集地震余震地震動記錄相比估值偏高,尚不能合理地反映臺灣地區(qū)獨特的地質(zhì)構造與波傳播路徑效應。(2)利用臺灣集集地震余震地震動數(shù)據(jù),采用隨機效應方法建立地震動衰減關系,對回歸結果進行分析和比較�？傮w而言,本文結果對中小震有一定的參考價值,但對于大震結果偏小。(3)將余震地震動衰減關系應用于地震危險性分析中,并采取不確定性校正。發(fā)現(xiàn)地震動超越概率曲線在校正前后有相當大的變化,校正后的超越概率有了顯著提高,尤其體現(xiàn)在低概率段。(4)利用集集地震余震序列單一場地和單一路徑地震動數(shù)據(jù)進行衰減關系的不確定性研究,根據(jù)不同的地震動影響因素對模型誤差進行系統(tǒng)性分解和定量分析,最后與其他研究成果進行比較。發(fā)現(xiàn)通過減少誤差項,模型的不確定性可以明顯減小。
[Abstract]:Strong ground motion is the main cause of civil engineering structural failure in seismic engineering. As the basis of earthquake prediction, engineering earthquake resistance and post-earthquake relief, the attenuation relationship and uncertainty of ground motion have a great impact on seismic risk analysis. In recent years, the study of the influence of the main aftershock sequence on the structure has become a hot spot. The seismic response analysis and seismic design of the existing structures generally only consider the main shock, but due to the cumulative damage effect of the structure, Aftershocks often play a key role in the collapse of structures. The existing results mainly focus on the main shock, and the research on aftershock is less, especially the aftershock sequence. In order to consider the influence of aftershock on the structure in an all-round way, the design of ground motion parameters is carried out reasonably. It is necessary to study the attenuation relationship of ground motion in aftershocks. Earthquake sequence refers to a series of earthquakes that occur in a narrow space. The focal mechanism may be related or has a similar seismic background. Therefore, the uncertain influence of the same site and the same source area on the attenuation relationship of ground motion. It is worthy of full consideration. The Taiwan Jiji earthquake records have a wealth of strong vibration records, and the scale of the seismic sequence is amazing, especially the large number of aftershock sequences, which is helpful to promote the study of the attenuation characteristics and uncertainty of aftershock ground motion. In this paper, a database is established based on the seismic aftershock ground motion records of Jiji earthquake. The random effect method is used to carry out the statistical regression of the attenuation relationship of the ground motion, and through the analysis of the attenuation results and the decomposition of the error, The ground motion characteristics in Taiwan and the influence characteristics of different factors on ground motion are obtained, which provides some reference and basis for reducing the uncertainty of ground motion attenuation model more reasonably. The main contents and results of this paper are as follows: (1) collect the source information and station site data, establish the earthquake aftershock ground motion database of Jiji earthquake, and analyze the basic characteristics of ground motion in Taiwan. Aiming at the CB08 model in NGA plan, the applicability of the model is analyzed from three aspects: propagation path, focal characteristics and response spectrum. It is found that the existing regression results of CB08 model are higher than those of aftershock ground motion records of Jiji earthquake, which can not reasonably reflect the unique geological structure and wave propagation path effect in Taiwan. (2) using the aftershock ground motion data of Jiji earthquake in Taiwan, The attenuation relationship of ground motion is established by random effect method, and the regression results are analyzed and compared. Generally speaking, the results in this paper have certain reference value for small and medium-sized earthquakes, but the results for large earthquakes are small. (3) the attenuation relationship of aftershock ground motion is applied to seismic risk analysis, and uncertainty correction is adopted. It is found that the transcendence probability curve of seismic motion has a considerable change before and after correction, and the transcendence probability after correction has been significantly improved. In particular, it is reflected in the low probability section. (4) the uncertainty of attenuation relationship between single site and single path ground motion data of Jiji earthquake aftershock sequence is studied. According to different influencing factors of ground motion, the model error is systematically decomposed and quantitatively analyzed, and finally compared with other research results. It is found that the uncertainty of the model can be obviously reduced by reducing the error term.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P315.9

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