“地震可預(yù)測性合作研究”計劃（CSEP）南北地震帶試驗區(qū)地震活動的一些統(tǒng)計地震學(xué)特征及其在地震預(yù)測中的應(yīng)用
發(fā)布時間：2019-01-09 12:14
【摘要】：作為“地震可預(yù)測性合作研究”(Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictabiliy, CSEP)計劃中國南北地震帶試驗區(qū)的準(zhǔn)備工作,本論文選取研究范圍為21°～41.5°N,97.50～107.5°E的區(qū)域,包括甘肅、四川、云南以及周邊地區(qū),分析了研究區(qū)以及各子區(qū)域的統(tǒng)計地震學(xué)特征。分析了研究區(qū)內(nèi)完整性震級隨時間變化的規(guī)律,結(jié)果顯示1970年以來研究區(qū)整體的完整性震級可取作3.0。分析了1990年以來研究區(qū)地震活動的各態(tài)遍歷性特征,發(fā)現(xiàn)不同子區(qū)域具有不同的各態(tài)遍歷性特,這種各態(tài)遍歷性明顯受到2008年汶川地震序列的影響。作為基于Triple-S (Simple Smoothing Seismicity model)方法進(jìn)行預(yù)測分析工作的發(fā)展,同時考慮在一個統(tǒng)一的物理背景下考慮地震活動的“漲落”和“平靜”,使用PI算法來進(jìn)行預(yù)測分析,其中預(yù)測時間為5年尺度,目標(biāo)震級取6.0級。作為以往利用PI算法進(jìn)行回溯性檢驗工作的發(fā)展,論文嘗試?yán)肞I算法開展向前預(yù)測檢驗。參數(shù)設(shè)置如下：截止震級3.0,目標(biāo)震級6.0,空間網(wǎng)格0.2°×0.2°,“背景時間窗”10年,“異常學(xué)習(xí)時間窗”和“預(yù)測時間窗”5年。利用ROC(Recerver Operating Chracteristic)方法對結(jié)果進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計檢驗,結(jié)果顯示PI算法的預(yù)測效果均優(yōu)于隨機預(yù)測和僅考慮叢集性的“相對強度"RI算法。作為PI算法應(yīng)用的發(fā)展,在理論方面,利用PI算法討論了在一個具有自組織臨界性(SOC)的系統(tǒng)中模型地震活動的可預(yù)測性問題。發(fā)展了基于砂堆原理的元胞自動機(CA)模型,并用在二維時空中分析地震危險性的退化PI算法進(jìn)行分析。結(jié)果顯示PI算法的預(yù)測效果優(yōu)于隨機預(yù)測。在實踐方面,針對年度會商中危險區(qū)虛報率過高的問題,采用前兆反向追蹤(RTP)技術(shù)的思路,結(jié)合2004年-2012年南北地震帶的年度會商工作,利用PI算法和RI算法作為長期地震危險性的評估。結(jié)果顯示在不降低正確預(yù)報的情況下,采用RTP算法的理論,通過PI/RI算法可以有效去除虛報的危險區(qū),從而降低虛報率,表明最初被用來進(jìn)行短期預(yù)報的RTP技術(shù)也可以為年度會商工作作出一定的貢獻(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:As the preparatory work of the "earthquake predictability Cooperative study" (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictabiliy, CSEP) program, this paper selects the area of 21 擄~ 41.5 擄N 97.50 ~ 107.5 擄E, including Gansu Province, for the experimental area of the north-south seismic belt in China. The statistical seismological characteristics of the study area and its sub-regions are analyzed in Sichuan, Yunnan and its surrounding areas. The rule of variation of integrality magnitude with time in the study area is analyzed. The results show that the integrality magnitude of the whole study area since 1970 is 3. 0. By analyzing the ergodic characteristics of earthquake activity in the study area since 1990, it is found that different sub-regions have different ergodic characteristics, which are obviously influenced by the Wenchuan earthquake sequence of 2008. As a development of prediction analysis based on Triple-S (Simple Smoothing Seismicity model) method and considering the fluctuation and calm of seismic activity in a unified physical background, PI algorithm is used to predict and analyze. The prediction time is 5 years and the target magnitude is 6.0. As a development of backtracking test using PI algorithm, this paper attempts to use PI algorithm to carry out forward prediction test. The parameters are as follows: as of magnitude 3.0, target magnitude 6.0, spatial grid 0.2 擄脳 0.2 擄, background time window 10 years, abnormal learning time window and prediction time window 5 years. The ROC (Recerver Operating Chracteristic) method is used to test the results. The results show that the prediction effect of the PI algorithm is better than that of the random prediction algorithm and the "relative strength" RI algorithm which only considers clustering. As a development of PI algorithm, the prediction of model seismic activity in a system with self-organized criticality (SOC) is discussed by using PI algorithm in theory. The (CA) model of cellular automata based on sand pile principle is developed and analyzed with the degenerate PI algorithm for seismic hazard analysis in two-dimensional space-time. The results show that the prediction effect of PI algorithm is better than that of random prediction. In practice, aiming at the problem of high false reporting rate of dangerous areas in annual meetings, the idea of (RTP) technology of precursor reverse tracking is adopted, and combined with the annual meeting work of the north-south seismic belt from 2004 to 2012, PI algorithm and RI algorithm are used to evaluate the long term seismic risk. The results show that the theory of RTP algorithm and PI/RI algorithm can effectively remove the dangerous area of false report and reduce the false report rate without reducing the correct forecast. It is shown that the RTP technique, which was initially used for short term forecasting, can also contribute to the annual conference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地震局地球物理研究所
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P315.7
[Abstract]:As the preparatory work of the "earthquake predictability Cooperative study" (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictabiliy, CSEP) program, this paper selects the area of 21 擄~ 41.5 擄N 97.50 ~ 107.5 擄E, including Gansu Province, for the experimental area of the north-south seismic belt in China. The statistical seismological characteristics of the study area and its sub-regions are analyzed in Sichuan, Yunnan and its surrounding areas. The rule of variation of integrality magnitude with time in the study area is analyzed. The results show that the integrality magnitude of the whole study area since 1970 is 3. 0. By analyzing the ergodic characteristics of earthquake activity in the study area since 1990, it is found that different sub-regions have different ergodic characteristics, which are obviously influenced by the Wenchuan earthquake sequence of 2008. As a development of prediction analysis based on Triple-S (Simple Smoothing Seismicity model) method and considering the fluctuation and calm of seismic activity in a unified physical background, PI algorithm is used to predict and analyze. The prediction time is 5 years and the target magnitude is 6.0. As a development of backtracking test using PI algorithm, this paper attempts to use PI algorithm to carry out forward prediction test. The parameters are as follows: as of magnitude 3.0, target magnitude 6.0, spatial grid 0.2 擄脳 0.2 擄, background time window 10 years, abnormal learning time window and prediction time window 5 years. The ROC (Recerver Operating Chracteristic) method is used to test the results. The results show that the prediction effect of the PI algorithm is better than that of the random prediction algorithm and the "relative strength" RI algorithm which only considers clustering. As a development of PI algorithm, the prediction of model seismic activity in a system with self-organized criticality (SOC) is discussed by using PI algorithm in theory. The (CA) model of cellular automata based on sand pile principle is developed and analyzed with the degenerate PI algorithm for seismic hazard analysis in two-dimensional space-time. The results show that the prediction effect of PI algorithm is better than that of random prediction. In practice, aiming at the problem of high false reporting rate of dangerous areas in annual meetings, the idea of (RTP) technology of precursor reverse tracking is adopted, and combined with the annual meeting work of the north-south seismic belt from 2004 to 2012, PI algorithm and RI algorithm are used to evaluate the long term seismic risk. The results show that the theory of RTP algorithm and PI/RI algorithm can effectively remove the dangerous area of false report and reduce the false report rate without reducing the correct forecast. It is shown that the RTP technique, which was initially used for short term forecasting, can also contribute to the annual conference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地震局地球物理研究所
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P315.7
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 朱令人,洪時中,陳棋福,鄭兆傼,王瓊;一次地震預(yù)報有效性的“距準(zhǔn)誤差”評價法——中短期前兆及預(yù)報效能評價之一[J];地震;2003年02期
2 蔣長勝;張浪平;韓立波;來貴娟;;中長期地震危險性概率預(yù)測中的統(tǒng)計檢驗方法Ⅰ:Molchan圖表法[J];地震;2011年02期
3 闞榮舉,張四昌,晏鳳桐,俞林勝;我國西南地區(qū)現(xiàn)代構(gòu)造應(yīng)力場與現(xiàn)代構(gòu)造活動特征的探討[J];地球物理學(xué)報;1977年02期
4 徐錫偉,張培震,聞學(xué)澤,秦尊麗,陳桂華,朱艾斕;川西及其鄰近地區(qū)活動構(gòu)造基本特征與強震復(fù)發(fā)模型[J];地震地質(zhì);2005年03期
5 劉保金;楊曉平;酆少英;寇昆朋;;龍門山山前疑似汶川M_S 8.0地震地表破裂的淺層地震反射調(diào)查[J];地震地質(zhì);2008年04期
6 陳運泰;;地震預(yù)測——進(jìn)展、困難與前景[J];地震地磁觀測與研究;2007年02期
7 李s，
本文編號：2405609
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/kejilunwen/diqiudizhi/2405609.html
最近更新
教材專著
