【摘要】：地下水管理模型是用來解決在某些約束前提下,通過對模型決策變量的操控,使得地下水系統(tǒng)根據(jù)規(guī)定目標(biāo)獲得最優(yōu)化的一種手段。在求解這種優(yōu)化模型時(shí),需要反復(fù)調(diào)用數(shù)值模擬模型,進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致求解地下水管理模型的時(shí)間大大增加,制約了地下水管理模型的發(fā)展與實(shí)際應(yīng)用。替代模型可以在實(shí)現(xiàn)數(shù)值模擬模型功能的前提下,大大簡化計(jì)算,從而推動地下水管理模型在實(shí)際工作中的應(yīng)用。汶上縣地處魯西平原和魯中低山丘陵的交接地帶,是著名的國家商品糧基地縣,盛產(chǎn)多種經(jīng)濟(jì)作物。在汶上縣的用水結(jié)構(gòu)中,地下水資源占了較大的比例,尤其是城鄉(xiāng)生活飲用水及農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉用水。因此,地下水資源對于汶上縣的發(fā)展起著舉足輕重的作用。隨著汶上縣人口規(guī)模和經(jīng)濟(jì)體量的增長,所需要的水資源量也急劇增加,進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致地下水資源遭到過度開采,造成了地下水位持續(xù)下降等地質(zhì)環(huán)境及社會經(jīng)濟(jì)問題。因此,地下水資源的供需矛盾制約著汶上縣的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,進(jìn)而也對今后的水資源管理工作提出了更高要求。本文通過收集汶上縣的地質(zhì)以及水文地質(zhì)方面的基礎(chǔ)資料,建立了水文地質(zhì)概念模型,并以此為基礎(chǔ)使用GMS模擬軟件建立了汶上縣地下水流數(shù)值模型。通過擬合實(shí)際流場以及長觀孔,使得所構(gòu)建的數(shù)值模型能夠更逼近真實(shí)水文地質(zhì)條件。使用蒙特卡羅抽樣方法及拉丁超立方抽樣方法在汶上縣中部十個(gè)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)地下水利用量的適宜范圍內(nèi),分別抽樣確定了200組及20組地下水開采方案。同時(shí),以地下水流現(xiàn)狀模型為基礎(chǔ),建立2015年到2030年的預(yù)測模型,計(jì)算在各組地下水開采方案下,研究區(qū)內(nèi)地下水水位降深的平均值。根據(jù)蒙特卡羅方法和拉丁超立方抽樣方法確定的地下水開采方案及其對應(yīng)的地下水水位降深分別作為訓(xùn)練樣本和檢驗(yàn)樣本,使用BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)及RBF神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)建了汶上縣地下水流數(shù)值模型的替代模型,并對其有效性進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明,使用所建立的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型及RBF神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型得出的地下水水位降深與根據(jù)預(yù)測模型得出的降深基本接近。因此,兩種神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型可以作為汶上縣地下水流數(shù)值模型的替代模型來使用,從而避免了在地下水管理模型中反復(fù)運(yùn)行數(shù)值模型,提高了管理模型的運(yùn)行效率。
[Abstract]:Groundwater management model is used to solve the problem that groundwater system can be optimized according to the specified objectives by manipulating the decision variables of the model under some constraints. In order to solve this kind of optimization model, the numerical simulation model needs to be called repeatedly, which leads to a great increase in the time of solving groundwater management model, which restricts the development and practical application of groundwater management model. The substitution model can greatly simplify the calculation on the premise of realizing the function of numerical simulation model, thus promoting the application of groundwater management model in practical work. Wenshang County is a famous commodity grain base county, which is located in the transition zone between Luxi Plain and low mountain hills in the middle of Shandong Province. It is rich in many kinds of cash crops. In the water structure of Wenshang County, groundwater resources account for a large proportion, especially urban and rural drinking water and agricultural irrigation water. Therefore, groundwater resources play an important role in the development of Wenshang County. With the increase of population scale and economic volume in Wenshang County, the amount of water resources needed increases rapidly, which leads to the overexploitation of groundwater resources, resulting in geological environment and social and economic problems such as the continuous decline of groundwater level. Therefore, the contradiction between supply and demand of groundwater resources restricts the economic development of Wenshang County, and puts forward higher requirements for water resources management in the future. Based on the basic data of geology and hydrogeology in Wenshang County, a conceptual model of hydrogeology is established in this paper, and a numerical model of groundwater flow in Wenshang County is established by using GMS software. By fitting the actual flow field and the long hole, the numerical model can approach the real hydrogeological conditions more closely. Using Monte Carlo sampling method and Latin hypercube sampling method, 200 groups and 20 groups of groundwater exploitation schemes were determined by sampling within the suitable range of groundwater utilization in ten towns in the central part of Wenshang County. At the same time, based on the groundwater flow status model, a prediction model from 2015 to 2030 is established to calculate the average groundwater level drop in the study area under each groundwater exploitation plan. According to the groundwater exploitation scheme determined by Monte Carlo method and Latin hypercube sampling method, and the corresponding groundwater level drop, they are used as training samples and test samples, respectively. The BP neural network and RBF neural network are used to construct a numerical model of groundwater flow in Wenshang County and its validity is tested. The results show that the groundwater level depth obtained by using the established BP neural network model and the RBF neural network model is basically close to that obtained from the prediction model. Therefore, the two neural network models can be used as the replacement model of Wenshang groundwater flow numerical model, thus avoiding repeated operation of numerical model in groundwater management model and improving the efficiency of management model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：P641.8

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