四川省南江縣地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性區(qū)劃研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-22 13:01
【摘要】：南江縣地質(zhì)災(zāi)害頻繁發(fā)生,目前編錄調(diào)查的地質(zhì)災(zāi)害點達到上千處。南江縣縣域中南部地層為紅層,紅層屬于易滑地層,在外界誘發(fā)因素的作用常產(chǎn)生大量地質(zhì)災(zāi)害。近年來,隨著全球氣候變暖,出現(xiàn)極端強降雨天氣的概率變大,例如2011年“9.16”強降雨誘發(fā)南江縣上千處地質(zhì)災(zāi)害發(fā)生。鑒于數(shù)量與規(guī)模如此巨大的地質(zhì)災(zāi)害,很有必要進行南江縣地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性區(qū)劃,為地質(zhì)災(zāi)害防災(zāi)減災(zāi)工作指明方向。地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性區(qū)劃就是評價各個地區(qū)產(chǎn)生地質(zhì)災(zāi)害可能性的大小。本文依托中國地質(zhì)調(diào)查局地質(zhì)調(diào)查工作項目“西南地區(qū)重大地質(zhì)災(zāi)害調(diào)查與預(yù)警區(qū)劃(12120113010100)”,對研究區(qū)進行了詳細的野外地質(zhì)調(diào)查,并在此基礎(chǔ)進行研究區(qū)的地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性區(qū)劃。首先,對南江縣區(qū)域地質(zhì)環(huán)境條件、地質(zhì)災(zāi)害發(fā)育分布規(guī)律、形成條件以及誘發(fā)因素等進行分析,再根據(jù)它們與地質(zhì)災(zāi)害點之間的相關(guān)性,選取坡度、剖面曲率、坡高、巖土體類型、斜坡結(jié)構(gòu)類型、地形濕度指數(shù)、距水系距離、7~9月份降雨量與距道路距離9個地質(zhì)災(zāi)害災(zāi)害易發(fā)性評價因子。根據(jù)評價指標(biāo)特征,將其分為基本環(huán)境因素與誘發(fā)因素兩類。選取Logistic回歸模型與模糊綜合評價模型兩種模型進行南江縣地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性區(qū)劃。將地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性等級分為高易發(fā)性、中易發(fā)性、低易發(fā)性與不易發(fā)性四個等級。Logistic回歸模型評價指標(biāo)采用逐步回歸的方法進入模型,根據(jù)回歸分析結(jié)果,最終確定坡度、坡高、巖土體類型、距水系距離、7~9月份降雨量與距道路距離6個評價指標(biāo)作為南江縣易發(fā)性區(qū)劃評價指標(biāo)。采用SPSS軟件確定Logistic回歸系數(shù),采用地質(zhì)災(zāi)害點密度確定評價因子指標(biāo)值,運用ArcGIS軟件進行疊加分析,最終得到基于Logistic回歸模型的南江縣地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性區(qū)劃圖。模糊綜合評價模型采用層次分析法確定評價因子權(quán)重,二級模糊綜合評判進行地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性區(qū)劃。采用Python語言編程進行評價指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)的處理,計算評價單元的易發(fā)性等級,簡化了復(fù)雜的數(shù)學(xué)計算過程,提高了制圖效率。采用ROC曲線與Kappa系數(shù)評價兩種模型區(qū)劃結(jié)果的精度,通過對比分析,基于Logistic回歸模型的區(qū)劃結(jié)果精確度更高。因此,選取Logistic回歸模型的區(qū)劃成果圖作為南江縣地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性區(qū)劃圖。評價結(jié)果表明:地質(zhì)災(zāi)害高易發(fā)區(qū)主要分布在南江縣中南部紅層地區(qū)和北部山區(qū)低海拔溝谷內(nèi);地質(zhì)災(zāi)害中易發(fā)區(qū)分布在紅層地區(qū);地質(zhì)災(zāi)害低易發(fā)區(qū)主要分布在1000~1500m的斜坡上;地質(zhì)災(zāi)害不易發(fā)區(qū)主要分布在南江縣北部海拔大于1500m的高海拔地區(qū)。通過與實際調(diào)查結(jié)果的對比分析,地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性區(qū)劃結(jié)果是合理的。
[Abstract]:Nanjiang County geological disasters occur frequently, the current cataloguing survey of geological hazards to thousands. The south and central strata of Nanjiang County are red beds and the red beds belong to slippery strata. A large number of geological hazards are often caused by the action of external inducing factors. In recent years, with the global warming, the probability of extreme heavy rainfall weather has become greater, for example, "9.16" heavy rainfall induced thousands of geological disasters in Nanjiang County in 2011. In view of the large number and scale of geological disasters, it is necessary to carry out the geological hazard prone regionalization in Nanjiang County, so as to point out the direction of geological disaster prevention and mitigation work. The regionalization of geological hazard vulnerability is to evaluate the possibility of geological hazard in each area. Based on the geological survey project of China Geological Survey Bureau, "investigation and early warning regionalization of major geological hazards in southwest China (12120113010100)," detailed field geological survey has been carried out in this paper. On this basis, the geological hazard susceptibility zoning of the study area is carried out. First of all, the regional geological environment conditions, geological hazard development and distribution, formation conditions and induced factors are analyzed, and then according to the correlation between them and geological hazard points, slope, profile curvature, slope height are selected. The types of rock and soil, the type of slope structure, the index of topography humidity, the distance from the water system, the rainfall in September and the distance from the road are 9 factors to evaluate the vulnerability of geological hazards. According to the characteristics of evaluation index, it can be divided into two categories: basic environmental factors and induced factors. Two models, Logistic regression model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, are selected to regionalize the susceptibility of geological hazards in Nanjiang County. The grade of geological hazard vulnerability is divided into four grades: high susceptibility, moderate vulnerability, low susceptibility and non-susceptibility. The evaluation index of Logistic regression model is entered into the model by stepwise regression method. According to the results of regression analysis, the slope and slope height are finally determined. The types of rock and soil, distance from water system, rainfall in July and September and distance from roads are used as evaluation indexes of susceptibility regionalization in Nanjiang County. The Logistic regression coefficient is determined by SPSS software, the evaluation factor index value is determined by using geological hazard point density, and the superposition analysis is carried out by using ArcGIS software. Finally, the geological hazard susceptibility zoning map of Nanjiang County based on Logistic regression model is obtained. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model uses the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of the evaluation factors, and the secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to regionalize the vulnerability of geological hazards. The Python language is used to process the evaluation index data, and the vulnerability grade of the evaluation unit is calculated, which simplifies the complicated mathematical calculation process and improves the drawing efficiency. The ROC curve and Kappa coefficient are used to evaluate the accuracy of the regionalization results of the two models. By comparison and analysis, the accuracy of the regionalization results based on the Logistic regression model is higher. Therefore, the regionalization result map of Logistic regression model is selected as the map of geological hazard susceptibility in Nanjiang County. The evaluation results show that the high risk areas of geological hazards are mainly distributed in the red beds in the central and southern part of Nanjiang County and in the low elevation gully in the northern mountainous area, the prone areas in the geological hazards are in the red bed areas, and the low risk areas of geological hazards are mainly distributed on the slopes of 1000 ~ 1500m. Geological hazard prone areas are mainly distributed in the high altitude areas of the northern part of Nanjiang County where the altitude is more than 1500m. By comparing with the actual investigation results, the results of geological hazard susceptibility regionalization are reasonable.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：成都理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P694
本文編號：2287230
[Abstract]:Nanjiang County geological disasters occur frequently, the current cataloguing survey of geological hazards to thousands. The south and central strata of Nanjiang County are red beds and the red beds belong to slippery strata. A large number of geological hazards are often caused by the action of external inducing factors. In recent years, with the global warming, the probability of extreme heavy rainfall weather has become greater, for example, "9.16" heavy rainfall induced thousands of geological disasters in Nanjiang County in 2011. In view of the large number and scale of geological disasters, it is necessary to carry out the geological hazard prone regionalization in Nanjiang County, so as to point out the direction of geological disaster prevention and mitigation work. The regionalization of geological hazard vulnerability is to evaluate the possibility of geological hazard in each area. Based on the geological survey project of China Geological Survey Bureau, "investigation and early warning regionalization of major geological hazards in southwest China (12120113010100)," detailed field geological survey has been carried out in this paper. On this basis, the geological hazard susceptibility zoning of the study area is carried out. First of all, the regional geological environment conditions, geological hazard development and distribution, formation conditions and induced factors are analyzed, and then according to the correlation between them and geological hazard points, slope, profile curvature, slope height are selected. The types of rock and soil, the type of slope structure, the index of topography humidity, the distance from the water system, the rainfall in September and the distance from the road are 9 factors to evaluate the vulnerability of geological hazards. According to the characteristics of evaluation index, it can be divided into two categories: basic environmental factors and induced factors. Two models, Logistic regression model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, are selected to regionalize the susceptibility of geological hazards in Nanjiang County. The grade of geological hazard vulnerability is divided into four grades: high susceptibility, moderate vulnerability, low susceptibility and non-susceptibility. The evaluation index of Logistic regression model is entered into the model by stepwise regression method. According to the results of regression analysis, the slope and slope height are finally determined. The types of rock and soil, distance from water system, rainfall in July and September and distance from roads are used as evaluation indexes of susceptibility regionalization in Nanjiang County. The Logistic regression coefficient is determined by SPSS software, the evaluation factor index value is determined by using geological hazard point density, and the superposition analysis is carried out by using ArcGIS software. Finally, the geological hazard susceptibility zoning map of Nanjiang County based on Logistic regression model is obtained. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model uses the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of the evaluation factors, and the secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to regionalize the vulnerability of geological hazards. The Python language is used to process the evaluation index data, and the vulnerability grade of the evaluation unit is calculated, which simplifies the complicated mathematical calculation process and improves the drawing efficiency. The ROC curve and Kappa coefficient are used to evaluate the accuracy of the regionalization results of the two models. By comparison and analysis, the accuracy of the regionalization results based on the Logistic regression model is higher. Therefore, the regionalization result map of Logistic regression model is selected as the map of geological hazard susceptibility in Nanjiang County. The evaluation results show that the high risk areas of geological hazards are mainly distributed in the red beds in the central and southern part of Nanjiang County and in the low elevation gully in the northern mountainous area, the prone areas in the geological hazards are in the red bed areas, and the low risk areas of geological hazards are mainly distributed on the slopes of 1000 ~ 1500m. Geological hazard prone areas are mainly distributed in the high altitude areas of the northern part of Nanjiang County where the altitude is more than 1500m. By comparing with the actual investigation results, the results of geological hazard susceptibility regionalization are reasonable.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：成都理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P694
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