【摘要】：上世紀(jì)80年代始,油氣勘探規(guī)模在全世界范圍內(nèi)逐漸變小,勘探難度因多種原因逐漸攀升,因此勘探風(fēng)險(xiǎn)逐漸增強(qiáng)。油氣勘探測(cè)井作為地球物理學(xué)的分支,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也隨之增加。我所在的公司是美國(guó)石油服務(wù)公司,部分業(yè)務(wù)為國(guó)外石油公司做油氣勘探開(kāi)發(fā)中地質(zhì)評(píng)價(jià),地震解釋及分析,測(cè)井工程,測(cè)井解釋,單井儲(chǔ)集層評(píng)價(jià)以及區(qū)域地質(zhì)評(píng)價(jià)等油藏描述研究項(xiàng)目。本文的研究對(duì)象為本公司的測(cè)井工程項(xiàng)目。近年來(lái),由于測(cè)井工程項(xiàng)目難度及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大大增強(qiáng)。因此,需要對(duì)測(cè)井工程項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行深度的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究。 本文建立了本公司石油天然氣勘探測(cè)井工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法及評(píng)價(jià)體系。論文在查閱大量的文獻(xiàn)資料的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)油氣測(cè)井行業(yè)及公司內(nèi)部的現(xiàn)狀做了細(xì)致的分析,并指出了存在的問(wèn)題,論證了研究油氣勘探測(cè)井風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究的必要性。通過(guò)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)分解RBS法結(jié)合專家訪談法對(duì)油氣勘探測(cè)井工程項(xiàng)目做完整詳細(xì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別并加以分類(lèi)。油氣勘探測(cè)井工程項(xiàng)目分為6個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類(lèi)別,識(shí)別出23個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。利用概率影響矩陣法對(duì)識(shí)別出的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行定性分析確定其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)量化值,再引入層次分析法確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的權(quán)重值。將概率影響矩陣的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)量化值與層次分析法的權(quán)重值結(jié)合,對(duì)油氣勘探測(cè)井工程項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià),得出油氣勘探測(cè)井工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度為中度風(fēng)險(xiǎn),其中有4個(gè)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,17個(gè)中等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,2個(gè)低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。對(duì)油氣勘探測(cè)井工程項(xiàng)目識(shí)別出的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素按象限歸類(lèi),對(duì)每一象限的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素逐一提出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施。 通過(guò)本文研究的油氣勘探測(cè)井工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理體系的建立,可以將公司目前存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理問(wèn)題有效的解決,對(duì)公司的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理提供了積極的影響。
[Abstract]:Since the 1980s, the scale of oil and gas exploration has gradually become smaller in the world, and the exploration difficulty has gradually increased for various reasons, so the exploration risk has gradually increased. My company is the American Petroleum Service Company. Some of my businesses are geological evaluation, seismic interpretation and analysis, logging engineering, logging interpretation for foreign oil companies in oil and gas exploration and development. In this paper, the risk analysis method and evaluation system of oil and gas exploration logging project are established. On the basis of consulting a lot of documents, this paper makes a detailed analysis on the present situation of oil and gas logging industry and company, points out the existing problems, and proves the necessity of studying the risk management of oil and gas exploration logging. The risk identification and classification of oil and gas exploration logging engineering projects are made by RBS method of risk structure decomposition combined with expert interview. The probability influence matrix method is used to analyze the identified risk factors qualitatively to determine their risk grade and risk quantification value, and then the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is introduced to determine the weight of the risk factors. Combining the quantitative risk value of probability influence matrix with the weight value of AHP, the comprehensive risk evaluation of oil and gas exploration logging engineering project is carried out, and the risk degree of oil and gas exploration logging engineering project is medium risk. The risk factors identified by oil and gas exploration logging project are classified according to quadrant, and the risk countermeasures are put forward one by one for each quadrant. Through the establishment of the risk management system of the oil and gas exploration logging project in this paper, the existing risk management problems in the company can be effectively solved and the risk management of the company can be positively affected.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)科學(xué)院大學(xué)（工程管理與信息技術(shù)學(xué)院）
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：P631.81

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