【摘要】：長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,水資源愈發(fā)短缺,華北地區(qū)尤為嚴(yán)重。為滿足地區(qū)社會(huì)發(fā)展需求,華北地區(qū)持續(xù)多年超采地下水,已經(jīng)造成嚴(yán)重的環(huán)境問(wèn)題,地下水超采治理迫在眉睫。石家莊市平原區(qū)是華北平原較典型的地下水資源超采地區(qū),由于地下水長(zhǎng)期超采,補(bǔ)排失去平衡,石家莊市平原區(qū)地下水位急速下降,在區(qū)域內(nèi)形成了若干地下水降落漏斗,而且在近幾十年中地下水降落漏斗的規(guī)模逐漸變大,并引起了地裂縫、塌陷等地質(zhì)環(huán)境問(wèn)題。針對(duì)石家莊市地下水位不斷下降,地下水降落漏斗范圍不斷增大的情況,石家莊市已經(jīng)開(kāi)展地下水超采綜合治理,治理方式主要有兩種手段,一是加強(qiáng)南水北調(diào)配套工程建設(shè),充分利用南水北調(diào)分配的長(zhǎng)江水替換受水區(qū)開(kāi)采的地下水,二是實(shí)施地下水壓采,通過(guò)加強(qiáng)節(jié)水工程建設(shè),結(jié)構(gòu)節(jié)水、工程節(jié)水、農(nóng)藝節(jié)水相結(jié)合,提高工農(nóng)業(yè)用水的利用效率和效益,節(jié)約地下水資源,減少地下水開(kāi)采。本文通過(guò)收集石家莊市平原區(qū)1980-2015年地下水觀測(cè)水位、地下水開(kāi)采量、降雨量、國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值等歷史數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)石家莊市平原區(qū)地下水位歷史變化特征及降雨量、地下水開(kāi)采量、國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值等主要影響因素與地下水位變化的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了分析。通過(guò)采用多元線性回歸分析法、遺傳BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)算法分別構(gòu)建了石家莊市平原區(qū)地下水埋深預(yù)測(cè)模型并對(duì)石家莊市平原區(qū)地下水平均埋深進(jìn)行了模擬預(yù)測(cè)。在對(duì)兩種預(yù)測(cè)模型模擬預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比之后,選取遺傳BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測(cè)模型分別在石家莊市開(kāi)展地下水超采綜合治理和不開(kāi)展地下水超采綜合治理兩種情況下對(duì)2016-2021年石家莊市平原區(qū)地下水平均埋深進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)分析。石家莊市平原區(qū)不同地區(qū)地下水位下降速度和幅度存在較大差異,西部、北部、東北部及西南部小區(qū)域內(nèi)地下水位下降幅度較小,中部、南部和東部地區(qū)地下水位下降幅度較大,東南部地下水位下降最為嚴(yán)重。通過(guò)研究對(duì)比發(fā)現(xiàn),與不進(jìn)行地下水超采綜合治理相比,石家莊市地下水超采綜合治理可有效降低地下水位下降的速度,在未來(lái)一段時(shí)期內(nèi)可取得較好的治理效果。
[Abstract]:For a long time, with the rapid development of China's economy, water resources are increasingly short, especially in North China. In order to meet the needs of regional social development, the groundwater in North China has been overexploited for many years, which has caused serious environmental problems. The plain area of Shijiazhuang City is a typical area of overmining groundwater resources in North China Plain. Due to the long-term over-exploitation of groundwater and the imbalance of recharge and drainage, the groundwater level in Shijiazhuang Plain has dropped rapidly, and a number of underground water funnels have been formed in the area. In recent decades, the scale of groundwater funnel has become larger and caused geological environmental problems such as ground fissure, collapse and so on. In view of the situation that the groundwater level in Shijiazhuang City is constantly falling and the scope of the groundwater drop funnel is increasing, Shijiazhuang City has carried out comprehensive treatment of groundwater overmining. There are two main ways to control the situation. One is to strengthen the construction of the supporting project of the South-to-North Water transfer Project. To make full use of the Yangtze River water allocated by the South-to-North Water transfer to replace the groundwater mined in the water-receiving area, second, to implement groundwater pressure mining, and to combine water saving in construction, water saving and agronomic water saving through strengthening the construction of water-saving projects. Improve the efficiency and efficiency of industrial and agricultural water use, save groundwater resources and reduce groundwater exploitation. By collecting the historical data of groundwater level, groundwater exploitation, rainfall, gross national product (GNP) and so on from 1980 to 2015 in Shijiazhuang Plain area, this paper deals with the historical variation characteristics and rainfall of groundwater level and groundwater exploitation in Shijiazhuang Plain area. The relationship between gross national product (GNP) and groundwater level is analyzed. By using multivariate linear regression analysis and genetic BP neural network algorithm, the prediction model of groundwater buried depth in Shijiazhuang plain area was constructed, and the average groundwater buried depth in Shijiazhuang plain area was simulated. After comparing the simulation results of the two prediction models, The genetic BP neural network prediction model was selected to forecast and analyze the average buried depth of groundwater in Shijiazhuang Plain area in 2016-2021 under the conditions of comprehensive treatment of groundwater overexploitation and no comprehensive treatment of groundwater overexploitation. There are great differences in the speed and range of groundwater level decline in different regions of Shijiazhuang Plain area. In the west, north, northeast and southwest of Shijiazhuang, the decrease of groundwater level is relatively small, but in the middle, there is no significant difference between the two regions. In the south and east of China, the groundwater level has declined greatly, and the southeastern region is the most serious. By comparison, it is found that comprehensive treatment of groundwater overmining in Shijiazhuang City can effectively reduce the rate of groundwater level decline, and obtain better treatment effect in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北水利水電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：P641.2

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本文編號(hào)：2240017