【摘要】：近年來(lái),兩淮和徐州礦區(qū)很多工業(yè)廣場(chǎng)地表發(fā)生了不同程度的沉降,工業(yè)廣場(chǎng)地表發(fā)生發(fā)生沉降時(shí),工業(yè)廣場(chǎng)地表上的建(構(gòu))筑物和井筒等也遭到了一定的破壞,給煤礦的生產(chǎn)和安全帶來(lái)了極大的威脅。本文針對(duì)童亭煤礦工業(yè)廣場(chǎng)地表進(jìn)行沉降監(jiān)測(cè),并建立預(yù)測(cè)模型。 本文介紹了沉降監(jiān)測(cè)的基本知識(shí),以童亭煤礦為例,建立了工業(yè)廣場(chǎng)地表沉降監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)。按照國(guó)家二等水準(zhǔn)測(cè)量方法對(duì)基準(zhǔn)網(wǎng)和首級(jí)網(wǎng)進(jìn)行了3次全面觀測(cè),對(duì)次級(jí)網(wǎng)進(jìn)行了17期沉降觀測(cè)�；鶞�(zhǔn)網(wǎng)選取重心基準(zhǔn),采用秩虧自由網(wǎng)平差方法,并對(duì)基準(zhǔn)點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了穩(wěn)定性分析。首級(jí)網(wǎng)選用固定基準(zhǔn),采用經(jīng)典平差方法,并對(duì)工作點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了差異性檢驗(yàn)。經(jīng)嚴(yán)密平差處理與分析得出,在觀測(cè)期內(nèi)：工業(yè)廣場(chǎng)地表平均累積沉降量為12.4mm；主井井架基礎(chǔ)平均累積沉降量為12.6mm；煤倉(cāng)1、煤倉(cāng)2、煤倉(cāng)3的最大傾斜變形分別為：0.12mm/m.0.15mm/m.0.13mm/m。按照相關(guān)規(guī)范主井井架基礎(chǔ)和3個(gè)煤倉(cāng)在整個(gè)觀測(cè)期內(nèi)均處于安全狀態(tài)。 本文介紹了灰色系統(tǒng)模型和時(shí)間序列模型的建模原理和預(yù)測(cè)方法等,并以Visual Basic6.0為開(kāi)發(fā)環(huán)境設(shè)計(jì)編制了童亭煤礦工業(yè)廣場(chǎng)地表沉降監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng)。依據(jù)灰色系統(tǒng)理論,選取最佳維數(shù),建立了GM(1,1)等維新息模型,得到工業(yè)廣場(chǎng)地表6個(gè)特征點(diǎn)(ZN2、ZJK、1#、E8、W2、E3)平均殘差值為0.2mm,模型精度等級(jí)為2級(jí)以上,各特征點(diǎn)第18期(2014年12月)的預(yù)測(cè)值依次為：-11.5mm、.3.7mm、-10.8mm、-13.9mm、-13.3mm、-11.6mm,預(yù)測(cè)精度有待進(jìn)一步驗(yàn)證。依據(jù)時(shí)間序列理論,建立了AR(p)模型,得到工業(yè)廣場(chǎng)地表6個(gè)特征點(diǎn)(ZN2、ZJK、1#、E8、W2、E3)平均殘差值為0.4mm,具有較高精度。根據(jù)現(xiàn)有工業(yè)廣場(chǎng)地表沉降監(jiān)測(cè)資料分析得出：兩種模型的精度均能滿足要求,但灰色系統(tǒng)模型的平均殘差和中誤差較小,在童亭煤礦工業(yè)廣場(chǎng)地表沉降監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng)中灰色系統(tǒng)模型略優(yōu)于時(shí)間序列模型。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the ground surface of many industrial squares in the Lianghuai and Xuzhou mining areas has been settled to varying degrees. When the ground surface of the industrial square is subsided, the construction (construction) and wellbore on the industrial square surface have also been damaged to a certain extent. It poses a great threat to the production and safety of coal mines. In this paper, the ground subsidence of Tongting Coal Mine Industrial Square is monitored and a prediction model is established. This paper introduces the basic knowledge of subsidence monitoring. Taking Tongting Coal Mine as an example, the ground subsidence monitoring system of Industrial Plaza is established. According to the national secondary leveling method, three comprehensive observations were made on the datum network and the first network, and 17 settlement observations were carried out on the secondary network. The barycenter datum is selected and the rank deficient free net adjustment method is used to analyze the stability of the datum. The first level net selects fixed datum, adopts the classical adjustment method, and carries on the difference test to the working point. Through strict adjustment and analysis, it is concluded that during the observation period, the average cumulative settlement of the ground surface of Industrial Square is 12.4mm, the average cumulative settlement of the main Derrick foundation is 12.6mm, and the maximum inclined deformation of bunker 1, bunker 2, bunker 3 is respectively 0.12mmm.0.15mmm.0.13mmmm. The foundation of the main well Derrick and the three coal bunkers are in safe condition during the whole observation period according to the relevant codes. This paper introduces the modeling principle and prediction method of grey system model and time series model, and designs the ground subsidence monitoring and forecasting system of Tongting Coal Mine Industrial Square with Visual Basic6.0 as the development environment. According to the grey system theory and the optimum dimension, the GM (1K1) equal dimensional innovation model is established. The average residual value of the six characteristic points (ZN2ZJKGQ1#E8W2W2E3) of the industrial square is 0.2mm, and the precision grade of the model is more than 2 grades. The predicted values of each feature point in phase 18 (December 2014) are: -11.5mm-1. 3.7mm/ -10.8mm-1 -13.9mm + -13.3 mm + -11.6mm respectively. The prediction accuracy needs to be further verified. Based on the theory of time series, the AR (p) model is established, and the average residual value of the six characteristic points (ZN2ZJK1 #E8W2W2E3) of Industrial Plaza is 0.4mm, which has a high accuracy. According to the existing monitoring data of ground subsidence in Industrial Plaza, it is concluded that the precision of the two models can meet the requirements, but the average residual error and the median error of the grey system model are small. In the ground subsidence monitoring and forecasting system of Tongting Coal Mine Industrial Square, the grey system model is slightly better than the time series model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：P642.26

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