【摘要】：江蘇省南通市位于國(guó)家“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略和“長(zhǎng)江經(jīng)濟(jì)帶”戰(zhàn)略的重疊區(qū)域。多年來(lái)對(duì)海洋資源的開(kāi)發(fā)強(qiáng)度持續(xù)增加,而重開(kāi)發(fā)輕保護(hù)、無(wú)度無(wú)序開(kāi)發(fā)的現(xiàn)象使得南通市海域環(huán)境開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題,因此,為了未雨綢繆,急需對(duì)南通市所轄海域的生態(tài)承載力進(jìn)行客觀評(píng)價(jià)與分析,以便尋找恰當(dāng)?shù)臎Q策依據(jù),確保其海域生態(tài)環(huán)境的可持續(xù)利用。論文對(duì)海域生態(tài)承載力研究的概念和方法進(jìn)行概述,借鑒國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),構(gòu)建了南通市海域生態(tài)承載力評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。在確定評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系的指標(biāo)的過(guò)程中,采用了文獻(xiàn)分析法和德?tīng)柗品?應(yīng)用德?tīng)柗品ㄓ沙跏嫉?9個(gè)指標(biāo)中選定了其中的24個(gè)指標(biāo),又通過(guò)SPSS統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件的多重共線性分析剔除了2個(gè)相似指標(biāo),最終明確了本研究的3個(gè)準(zhǔn)則層8個(gè)指標(biāo)層的共計(jì)22個(gè)指標(biāo)。明確指標(biāo)體系所有指標(biāo)之后,對(duì)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重進(jìn)行賦值采用的方法是層次分析法跟熵值法結(jié)合的組合賦權(quán)法,最后通過(guò)狀態(tài)空間模型將南通市海域生態(tài)承載力進(jìn)行量化,得出南通市海域2009-2014年海域生態(tài)承載力指數(shù)并對(duì)其進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)的分析。研究結(jié)果表明:(1)在2009-2014年南通市海域生態(tài)承載力指數(shù)呈現(xiàn)波浪式下降的趨勢(shì),指數(shù)從2009的0.8275下降到2014年的0.7304,承載度由良好可載降到基本可載,從2010年后承載度一直處于一個(gè)下降的趨勢(shì)。(2)根據(jù)系統(tǒng)的分析本文認(rèn)為造成承載力指數(shù)處于震蕩式下降的原因可能是南通市人口的激增,漁業(yè)資源的過(guò)度捕撈等造成海洋環(huán)境壓力增加,環(huán)境被破壞,同時(shí)環(huán)境保護(hù)的投入還遠(yuǎn)跟不上。(3)本文根據(jù)南通市海域生態(tài)承載力評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果提出了相對(duì)應(yīng)的對(duì)策建議包括最根本的是從根本上嚴(yán)格控制南通市人口增長(zhǎng),減小人口自然增長(zhǎng)率,從根本上控制南通企業(yè)的污染排放,加強(qiáng)對(duì)廢水、廢氣和固體廢棄物排放的調(diào)控。對(duì)造成海洋污染的企業(yè)嚴(yán)懲不貸,加大處罰力度,完善相關(guān)的法律法規(guī),大力發(fā)展循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì),持續(xù)加大海洋環(huán)境保護(hù)的投入,對(duì)入海污染物排放實(shí)行總量控制,建立完善的海洋環(huán)境監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)。
[Abstract]:Nantong City of Jiangsu Province is located in the overlapping area of the National Strategy of Belt and Road and the Strategy of Yangtze Economic Belt. Over the years, the intensity of exploitation of marine resources has continued to increase, while the phenomenon of emphasizing exploitation and light protection, and indiscriminate and disorderly development, has caused problems in the marine environment of Nantong City. Therefore, in order to make good preparations in advance, It is urgent to evaluate and analyze the ecological carrying capacity of the sea area under the jurisdiction of Nantong City in order to find the appropriate decision basis and ensure the sustainable utilization of the ecological environment in the sea area. In this paper, the concept and method of ecological carrying capacity of sea area are summarized, and the evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity of sea area in Nantong City is constructed by referring to relevant literature at home and abroad. In the process of determining the indicators of the evaluation index system, the literature analysis method and Delphi method are used, and 24 of them are selected from the 39 initial indicators by using Delphi method. Two similar indexes are eliminated by the multiplex collinear analysis of SPSS statistical software. Finally, 22 indexes of the 3 criteria and 8 index layers in this study are determined. After defining all the indexes in the index system, the method to assign the weight of the index is the combination weighting method of AHP and entropy method. Finally, the ecological carrying capacity of Nantong sea area is quantified by the state space model. The ecological carrying capacity index of Nantong sea area from 2009 to 2014 is obtained and analyzed systematically. The results show that: (1) the ecological carrying capacity index of Nantong City in 2009-2014 shows a wave-like downward trend, from 0.8275 in 2009 to 0.7304 in 2014, and the carrying capacity decreases from good loadability to basic loadability. Since 2010, the bearing capacity has been in a downward trend. (2) according to the systematic analysis, this paper thinks that the reason that the bearing capacity index is in oscillatory decline may be the population surge in Nantong City. The overfishing of fishery resources has increased the pressure on the marine environment and destroyed the environment. At the same time, the input of environmental protection is far from keeping up. (3) according to the evaluation results of ecological carrying capacity in Nantong City, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward in this paper, including the most fundamental one is to strictly control the population growth in Nantong City and reduce the natural population growth rate. To control the pollution discharge of Nantong enterprise and strengthen the control of waste water, waste gas and solid waste. To severely punish enterprises that cause marine pollution, to increase penalties, to improve relevant laws and regulations, to vigorously develop circular economy, to continuously increase investment in marine environmental protection, and to implement a total amount control of pollutants discharged into the sea. Establish a perfect marine environment monitoring system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：X145

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