【摘要】：應(yīng)急物資調(diào)配是應(yīng)急管理中一個重要的課題,準(zhǔn)確、高效的應(yīng)急物資調(diào)配方案是決定應(yīng)急救援的成功的關(guān)鍵,然而應(yīng)急情況下信息的不確定性增加了物資調(diào)配問題的難度。本文以應(yīng)急物資調(diào)配的不確定性處理作為重點,研究地震發(fā)生后的應(yīng)急物資調(diào)配方案。本文將應(yīng)急救援過程按災(zāi)情信息獲知程度分為黑箱期(僅知道震級、震中的時期)與灰箱期(各地震害指數(shù)依次更新的時期)。黑箱期根據(jù)歷史地震災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù)得到相應(yīng)的離散情景集,并基于此使用魯棒規(guī)劃建模。在灰箱期階段,本文根據(jù)震害指數(shù)更新烈度圈及各受災(zāi)點的物資需求,計算未滿足率,從而決定是否進行新一次的配送,使用數(shù)學(xué)規(guī)劃求解配送方案。最后,本文以魯?shù)榈卣鸬膶嶋H數(shù)據(jù)為例進行分析驗證了模型的有效性。
[Abstract]:Emergency material allocation is an important subject in emergency management. Accurate and efficient emergency material allocation scheme is the key to the success of emergency rescue. However, the uncertainty of information in emergency situation increases the difficulty of material allocation. This paper focuses on the uncertainty treatment of emergency material allocation, and studies the emergency material allocation scheme after earthquake. In this paper, the emergency rescue process is divided into black box period (only known magnitude, epicenter period) and grey box period (the period of local earthquake damage index updating in turn) according to the degree of information of the disaster. According to the historical earthquake disaster data, the black box period is used to obtain the corresponding discrete scenario set, and based on this, robust planning is used to model the model. In the period of grey box, the unsatisfied rate is calculated according to the renewal of the intensity circle and the material demand of each disaster point according to the earthquake damage index, so as to decide whether to carry out a new distribution or not, and to use mathematical programming to solve the distribution scheme. Finally, the validity of the model is verified by taking the actual data of Ludian earthquake as an example.
【作者單位】： 中國科學(xué)院大學(xué)工程科學(xué)學(xué)院;首都師范大學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)科學(xué)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(91324012;91024031)
【分類號】：P315.9

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