本文選題：斜坡 + 力學(xué)參數(shù)　； 參考：《中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：斜坡變形和穩(wěn)定性的預(yù)測評價是預(yù)防災(zāi)難性斜坡事件發(fā)生的基礎(chǔ)性工作。然而實際工作中因斜坡巖土體參數(shù)變異性特征使得斜坡穩(wěn)定性預(yù)測評價存在不確定性。巖土體參數(shù)變異性主要表現(xiàn)為參數(shù)空間分布上的差異性與參數(shù)值的不確定性。一方面,巖土體客觀存在的非均勻性導(dǎo)致其參數(shù)在空間上存在差異性;另一方面,實踐中對參數(shù)空間分布有限的認識又使得斜坡中巖土體參數(shù)具有不確定性。在此狀況下所進行的預(yù)測實質(zhì)上是概率化的�；诖�,本論文選擇研究斜坡巖土體參數(shù)的變異性,旨在有效降低斜坡穩(wěn)定性預(yù)測的不確定性并準確評估預(yù)測的可靠度。論文以斜坡系統(tǒng)為基礎(chǔ),研究其力學(xué)參數(shù)(有效楊氏模量E',有效粘聚力c'以及有效內(nèi)摩擦角φ')變異性及其穩(wěn)定性預(yù)測。首先,在斜坡力學(xué)參數(shù)與水平位移u_x的時空關(guān)聯(lián)分析基礎(chǔ)上,運用逐次線性評估原理建立斜坡力學(xué)參數(shù)變異性描述方法,并提出勘察資料合理融入初始猜測的方法和以力學(xué)參數(shù)變異性描述為目的的斜坡水平位移采樣策略;隨后,在實際復(fù)雜工況中探討非恒定飽和條件下斜坡力學(xué)參數(shù)變異性對斜坡穩(wěn)定性的作用機理,描述斜坡力學(xué)參數(shù)變異性,檢驗斜坡變形和穩(wěn)定性的預(yù)測效果;接著,通過概率理論建立可行的預(yù)測不確定性和可靠度評估方法,量化斜坡變形和穩(wěn)定性預(yù)測中的不確定性和可靠度。最后,提出了斜坡穩(wěn)定性預(yù)測的概率化分析框架。論文主要取得了以下結(jié)論與成果:(1)斜坡力學(xué)參數(shù)與u_x的關(guān)聯(lián)分析:u_x與靠近臨空面一側(cè)“x”狀共軛斜面的不同單元的E'負相關(guān),與背離臨空面一側(cè)“x”狀共軛斜面的不同單元的E'正相關(guān);同時,u_x與其水平向臨空面一側(cè)單元的E'正相關(guān),與水平向坡內(nèi)一側(cè)單元的E'負相關(guān)。u_x與靠近臨空面一側(cè)區(qū)域單元上的c'或φ'正相關(guān),與背離臨空面一側(cè)區(qū)域單元上的C'或φ'負相關(guān)。(2)斜坡力學(xué)參數(shù)變異性描述效果:E'的評估效果好于c'和φ'的評估效果。c'和φ'的評估局限于顯著塑性區(qū)附近,但評估結(jié)果對實際斜坡中軟弱區(qū)域具有指示識別作用;φ'的評估效果與有效應(yīng)力大小成正比。通過合理設(shè)置監(jiān)測點的位置、數(shù)量以及采樣時間,非顯著塑性區(qū)的c'和φ'以及E'的描述逐漸清晰,相應(yīng)的不確定性也越來越小。(3)斜坡工程地質(zhì)勘察資料含有關(guān)于斜坡內(nèi)部物質(zhì)分布和結(jié)構(gòu)特征的信息。根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)值和位置的確定情況,通過本文提出的勘察資料融入初始猜測的方法,能夠合理地利用這些信息幫助描述斜坡力學(xué)參數(shù)的變異性。(4)以力學(xué)參數(shù)變異性描述為目的的斜坡水平位移采樣策略:一是監(jiān)測點的位置決定了反演評估的范圍和部位。鉆孔或監(jiān)測點應(yīng)盡量等間距布置并覆蓋斜坡的重點研究區(qū)域,防止鉆孔或監(jiān)測點聚集;二是增多監(jiān)測點數(shù)量能夠促進參數(shù)變異性的描述效果,但過多的監(jiān)測點效率不高且耗費巨大。實際中應(yīng)根據(jù)項目等級以及項目需求合理設(shè)計采樣方案。此外,探索多種類型數(shù)據(jù)融合技術(shù)提高斜坡參數(shù)變異性描述解析度的十分必要;三是盡可能地選用處于監(jiān)測過程中不同大小、來自不同方向以及不同機理的外界刺激(如庫水變動,降雨等)作用時刻的水平位移監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù),這樣能在固定的采樣方案下進一步提高評估效果;四是應(yīng)根據(jù)力學(xué)參數(shù)空間差異性分布的反演評估結(jié)果和預(yù)測可靠度分布情況指導(dǎo)進一步調(diào)查的重點區(qū)域。綜合運用參數(shù)變異性作用于斜坡穩(wěn)定性機理判識潛在危險區(qū)。這四點為現(xiàn)有的斜坡工程地質(zhì)勘察提供了新的理論依據(jù)。(5)力學(xué)參數(shù)變異性作用斜坡變形和穩(wěn)定性的機理:一是通過調(diào)控空間不同位置的力學(xué)參數(shù)大小直接作用于斜坡變形和穩(wěn)定性;二是通過調(diào)整斜坡的應(yīng)力分布影響到更大區(qū)域的穩(wěn)定性。具體地,E'主要控制的斜坡不同部位的變形,增大了變形的差異性;而c'和φ'控制的是斜坡的不同部位的強度或屈服極限,使得斜坡在任意部位都具有屈服破壞的可能。力學(xué)參數(shù)和水平位移的時空關(guān)聯(lián)分析結(jié)果能夠很好地揭示力學(xué)參數(shù)變異性對斜坡水平位移的作用規(guī)律。(6)論文探索性地構(gòu)建了一種“變異性精細描述——預(yù)測”的分析框架。該框架一方面利用掌握的斜坡工程地質(zhì)勘察基礎(chǔ)資料高解析度地描述斜坡的空間差異性分布參數(shù),降低對斜坡變形以及失穩(wěn)的部位和時間預(yù)測的不確定性;另一方面通過定量化地評估預(yù)測的不確定性清楚地指示出斜坡不同部位預(yù)測的可靠程度,反饋性地指示斜坡參數(shù)差異性描述的關(guān)鍵區(qū)域;同時結(jié)合參數(shù)變異性作用斜坡穩(wěn)定性的機理判識斜坡潛在危險區(qū)、把握斜坡穩(wěn)定性演化趨勢,最終實現(xiàn)對斜坡變形和穩(wěn)定性的可靠預(yù)測。結(jié)果顯示,基于反演評估結(jié)果的斜坡水平位移和穩(wěn)定性預(yù)測效果好,能夠把握空間變形的差異性和總體趨勢。證明了基于參數(shù)變異性精細描述的斜坡變形和穩(wěn)定性預(yù)測思路的有效性。
[Abstract]:The prediction and evaluation of slope deformation and stability is the basic work to prevent the occurrence of catastrophic slope events. However, in practical work, the variability of slope rock and soil parameters makes the prediction evaluation of slope stability uncertain. The variability of rock mass parameters is mainly manifested by the difference of parameter space distribution and the inaccuracy of parameter values. On the one hand, on the one hand, the inhomogeneity of rock and soil causes the difference of its parameters in space; on the other hand, in practice, the knowledge of the limited spatial distribution of parameters in practice makes the parameters of rock and soil mass in the slope uncertain. The variability of slope soil parameters is designed to effectively reduce the uncertainty of slope stability prediction and to accurately evaluate the reliability of prediction. Based on the slope system, the paper studies the variability and stability prediction of its mechanical parameters (effective Young modulus E', effective cohesive force C' and effective internal friction angle [Phi]). First, the mechanical parameters of slope On the basis of spatial and temporal correlation analysis of horizontal displacement u_x, the variation description method of slope mechanical parameters is established by using the principle of successive linear evaluation, and the method of rational integration of the investigation data into the initial guess and the sampling strategy of slope horizontal displacement with the purpose of describing the variability of Mechanical parameters is proposed. Then, the non constant in the actual complex conditions is discussed. The mechanism of slope mechanical parameter variability to slope stability, the variability of slope mechanics parameters, and the prediction effect of slope deformation and stability are described. Then, a feasible prediction method of uncertainty and reliability is established by probability theory, and the uncertainty in the prediction of slope deformation and stability is quantified. Finally, a probabilistic analysis framework for slope stability prediction is proposed. The main conclusions and results are as follows: (1) the correlation analysis of the slope mechanics parameters and u_x: u_x and the negative correlation of the different units of the "X" like conjugate slope near the side of the air surface, and the different units of the "X" like conjugate slope on the side of the plane on the side of the plane. The positive correlation of E', and the positive correlation between u_x and its level to the E' on one side of the plane, and the negative correlation between E'and.U_x near the side element of the horizontal slope are positively related to the C' or Phi on the unit near the side of the surface, and negatively correlated with the C'or Phi on the unit on one side of the plane. (2) the evaluation of the variability of the mechanical parameters of the slope: assessment of E' The evaluation effect of C'and phi' is limited to the significant plastic zone, but the evaluation results have an indication recognition effect on the weak areas in the actual slope; the evaluation effect of the evaluation is proportional to the size of the effective stress. By setting the location of the monitoring point, the quantity and sampling time, the C'and phi in the non significant plastic zone by the reasonable setting of the monitoring points. The description of the E'and the corresponding uncertainty are becoming smaller and smaller. (3) the information of the slope engineering geological survey data contains information about the material distribution and structural characteristics of the interior slope. According to the determination of the data and position, the survey data proposed in this paper can be integrated into the initial guessing method, and the information can be used in a reasonable way. The variability of the mechanical parameters of the slope is described. (4) a horizontal displacement sampling strategy aimed at the variation of mechanical parameters: one is that the location of the monitoring points determines the range and location of the inversion evaluation. The drilling or monitoring points should be arranged as far as possible and cover the key areas of the slope to prevent the accumulation of boreholes or monitoring points; and two is the increase. The number of monitoring points can promote the description of parameter variability, but excessive monitoring points are inefficient and costly. In practice, the sampling scheme should be designed reasonably according to the project level and project requirements. In addition, it is necessary to explore various types of data fusion techniques to improve the resolution of the variability of slope parameters; three The horizontal displacement monitoring data of external stimuli (such as reservoir water change, rainfall) in different directions and different mechanisms are selected in the monitoring process, which can further improve the evaluation effect under the fixed sampling scheme; four, the results and pre evaluation results should be based on the spatial difference distribution of mechanical parameters. The distribution of measurement reliability will guide the key areas of further investigation. The four points provide a new theoretical basis for the existing slope engineering geological investigation. (5) the mechanism of the variation and stability of the slope by the variation of mechanical parameters: one is through the control of the empty space. The size of the mechanical parameters between different positions directly affects the deformation and stability of the slope; two is to influence the stability of the larger region by adjusting the stress distribution of the slope. Specifically, the deformation of the different parts of the slope which is mainly controlled by E'increases the difference of the deformation; and C' and [Phi] are controlled by the strength or yield pole of different parts of the slope. The result of the spatial and temporal correlation analysis of mechanical parameters and horizontal displacement can well reveal the action regularity of the variability of mechanical parameters to the horizontal displacement of the slope. (6) the paper explores an analytical framework for the "precise description of variability". On the other hand, the reliability of the prediction of different parts of the slope is clearly indicated by quantitative assessment of the uncertainty of the prediction of the slope deformation and instability. Degree, the key region of the slope parameter differential description is given feedback, and the potential danger zone of slope is judged by the mechanism of slope stability with parameter variability, and the slope stability evolution trend is grasped, and the reliable prediction of slope deformation and stability is finally realized. The result shows that the slope horizontal displacement based on the results of the inversion evaluation results shows that the slope horizontal displacement is based on the results of the inversion evaluation. The effect of the stability prediction is good, and the difference and general trend of space deformation can be grasped. The validity of the prediction method of slope deformation and stability based on the fine description of the parameter variability is proved.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TU433

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