本文選題：Copula + 均質(zhì)邊坡��； 參考：《巖土工程學(xué)報》2017年08期

【摘要】：針對巖土體抗剪強(qiáng)度參數(shù)聯(lián)合分布模型中Copula優(yōu)度評價問題,借助g-line給出了一種邊坡失效域的抗剪強(qiáng)度參數(shù)表征方法,并利用積分途徑得到了不同Copula及不同安全系數(shù)條件下算例邊坡的失效概率,以此探討了不同Copula計算結(jié)果的差異性,重點(diǎn)分析了S_n(p_c)、AIC、RMSE及Bias指標(biāo)下各Copula的評價效果,并以上述各指標(biāo)值為評價對象,分別計算了各Copula的熵權(quán)系數(shù),從而給出了一種加權(quán)組合的Copula形式。結(jié)果表明,二次多項(xiàng)式擬合g-line的效果良好,此時邊坡失效域可由抗剪強(qiáng)度參數(shù)獨(dú)立表征;常用的評價指標(biāo)得出的最優(yōu)Copula結(jié)果不唯一,當(dāng)不能有效地識別最優(yōu)Copula時,可采用加權(quán)組合的Copula進(jìn)行可靠性分析,能減小計算誤差,有效地消除不同Copula引起的失效概率差異性,也能避免因直接采用某些Copula而引起的對邊坡可靠度偏保守或者過高估計的問題。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the evaluation of Copula's degree of excellence in the joint distribution model of shear strength parameters of rock and soil, a method of describing the shear strength parameters of slope failure region is presented by means of g-line. The failure probability of slope under different Copula and different safety factors is obtained by integral method, and the difference of calculation results of different Copula is discussed, and the evaluation effect of each Copula under the index of Snnn PcCU AICRMSE and Bias is analyzed emphatically. The entropy weight coefficients of each Copula are calculated by taking each index value as the evaluation object, and a kind of Copula form of weighted combination is given. The results show that the quadratic polynomial fits the g-line well, and the failure region of slope can be independently characterized by shear strength parameters, and the optimal Copula results obtained by the commonly used evaluation indexes are not unique, when the optimal Copula can not be effectively identified, The reliability analysis of Copula with weighted combination can reduce the calculation error and effectively eliminate the difference of failure probability caused by different Copula. It can also avoid the problem of conservative or overestimated slope reliability caused by the adoption of some Copula directly.
【作者單位】： 河海大學(xué)巖土力學(xué)與堤壩工程教育部重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;三峽大學(xué)三峽庫區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害教育部重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;
【基金】：水利部公益性行業(yè)科研專項(xiàng)經(jīng)費(fèi)項(xiàng)目(201401029) 國家自然科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(51439003)
【分類號】：TU43

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前3條

1 PHOON Kok-Kwang;;Uncertainty analysis of correlated non-normal geotechnical parameters using Gaussian copula[J];Science China(Technological Sciences);2012年11期

2 李彥恒;史保平;張健;;聯(lián)結(jié)(copula)函數(shù)在概率地震危險性分析中的應(yīng)用[J];地震學(xué)報;2008年03期

3 王沁;黃雁勇;湯家法;向波;;基于Copula模型的降雨量與土壤飽和度的模擬研究[J];災(zāi)害學(xué);2010年03期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 譚坦;基于Copula模型的涇河南岸黃土滑坡危險性分析[D];長安大學(xué);2016年

2 向波;Copula技術(shù)及其在泥石流中的應(yīng)用[D];西南交通大學(xué);2011年

，

本文編號：2040364