本文選題：多元統(tǒng)計 + 隨機理論��； 參考：《長安大學》2015年博士論文

【摘要】：地下水資源是干旱區(qū)人工灌溉平原生存與發(fā)展的重要水源。然而隨著人口的快速增長和社會經濟的迅猛發(fā)展,對水資源的需求量急劇增加;加之不合理開采和灌溉農業(yè)的發(fā)展,引發(fā)了一系列水資源與水環(huán)境問題。本文以典型干旱區(qū)灌溉平原-銀川平原為研究對象,以地下水位變化和地下水水化學演化為線索,綜合運用數(shù)理統(tǒng)計、水文地質學、水文地球化學等學科理論,結合銀川平原水文地質背景、地下水補徑排特點、地下水化學類型特征及地下水空間賦存環(huán)境特征,應用半變異函數(shù)理論分析不同含水層滲透系數(shù)的空間變異特征,運用多元統(tǒng)計方法確定地下水水質演化特征和影響因素,應用隨機理論預測地下水位和水質指標變化趨勢,運用水文地球化學模擬對研究區(qū)潛水和承壓水水化學成分的形成模式進行研究,得到了以下成果:(1)研究區(qū)潛水含水層滲透系數(shù)呈現(xiàn)對數(shù)正態(tài)分布,中等變異性。而承壓水含水層滲透系數(shù)變異程度明顯小于潛水含水層,呈現(xiàn)微弱正偏態(tài)較平坦正態(tài)分布。潛水含水層和承壓水含水層的最優(yōu)擬合模型分別為球狀模型和指數(shù)模型,空間相關性分別為0.582和0.518,顯示研究區(qū)各含水層滲透系數(shù)具有中等的空間相關性。各含水層的擬合模型塊金值C0均大于0,說明其連續(xù)性較差,且潛水明顯劣于承壓水。(2)應用因子分析法對黃河西岸潛水水樣分析結果進行分析,基于特征值大于1,提取4個主因子,共占原始數(shù)據總方差的82.7%。其中第一主因子代表蒸發(fā)濃縮作用;第二主因子代表生活聚集區(qū)糞便污染及人類活動的影響;第三主因子代表承壓水與潛水的混合作用;第四主因子代表脫碳酸作用。對于黃河東岸潛水,通過主成分分析法3個主成分被提取,共占原始數(shù)據總方差的87.2%。其中主成分1-3分別為蒸發(fā)濃縮作用、碳酸鹽和含鉀礦物的溶解及螢石礦物的沉淀作用、動物糞便污染及人類活動的影響。(3)對于研究區(qū)承壓水水樣,應用因子分析法提取了4個主因子,共占原始數(shù)據總方差的85.58%。其中主因子1為巖鹽、斜長石、芒硝和石膏的溶解作用,主因子2反映了潛水與承壓水的混合作用,主因子3為人類開采活動的影響,主因子4為含氟離子礦物的溶解。(4)應用聚類分析法將黃河西岸潛水水樣分為三類:A、B和C。其中A類廣泛分布于研究區(qū)黃河西岸,主要離子為Na~+、Ca~(2+)和HCO_3~-,水化學類型主要為HCO_(3-)Na、HCO_(3-)Mg、HCO_(3-)Ca和HCO_(3-)Mg·Na·Ca;主要離子和TDS具有最低的平均濃度,顯示良好的水質。B類主要分布于石嘴山市西側的沖洪積扇和銀川市區(qū),主要離子為Mg~(2+)、HCO_3~-和SO_4~(2-),占主導地位的水化學類型為HCO_(3-)Mg和SO_4·HCO_(3-)Mg·Ca·Na。C類主要分布于徑流區(qū)下游的石嘴山市區(qū)域,在銀川市西部山前人類居住區(qū)也有零星分布,主要離子為Na~+、SO_4~(2-)和Cl~-,占主導地位的水化學類型為Cl·SO_4-Na;主要離子和TDS具有最高的平均濃度,水質差。對于黃河東岸潛水水樣,應用聚類分析法劃分為三類:A、B和C。其中A類均位于離黃河較近區(qū)域,主要離子為Na~+、Cl~-和HCO_3~-,水化學類型為HCO_(3-)Na。B類位于離黃河較遠的地區(qū),主要離子和TDS在三個分類中最小,顯示水樣水質良好;主要離子為Na~+、Cl~-和HCO_3~-,水化學類型多樣,分別為Cl~-Na、HCO_(3-)Na、HCO_3·Cl~-Na和HCO_(3-)Na·Mg。C類位于黃河東岸中部,主要離子和TDS在三個分類中最大,水樣水質很差,水化學類型為Cl~-Na。(5)對研究區(qū)承壓水水樣應用聚類分析法劃分為兩類:A和B。A類廣泛分布于研究區(qū),代表承壓水未受污染的狀態(tài),離子濃度低,顯示水樣水質較好;主要離子為Na~+、Mg~(2+)和HCO_3~-,水化學類型主要為HCO_(3-)Na、HCO_(3-)Mg和HCO_(3-)Na·Mg。B類位于石嘴山山前傾斜平原和銀川地區(qū),均為人口聚集區(qū);這些水樣的主要離子和TDS較高,顯示水樣水質較差,水化學類型分別為HCO_(3-)Na、Cl~-Na和SO_4-Ca。(6)根據1991-2010年銀川地區(qū)漏斗區(qū)潛水和承壓水特征點水位動態(tài)監(jiān)測資料,應用馬爾科夫鏈計算的2011和2012年豐水期與枯水期地下水位同實測水位對比,發(fā)現(xiàn)二者基本吻合,水位差值分別為承壓水C22-0.68-0.99 m和潛水S22-0.07-0.08 m;模擬的相對誤差為C22-0.06%-0.09%,S22-0.006%-0.007%,表明模擬水位與實際監(jiān)測值相一致。根據1991-2011年銀川地區(qū)漏斗區(qū)地下水特征點水質數(shù)據應用馬爾科夫鏈計算的2012年水質各指標的狀態(tài)區(qū)間與實際情況一致,預測值與水質各指標監(jiān)測值基本吻合。(7)針對多元統(tǒng)計分析得出的影響研究區(qū)潛水和承壓水水質變化的水化學作用,分別選取相應模擬路徑進行模擬分析。區(qū)內潛水水化學成分變化在中部和南部具有不同的特征。中部銀川地區(qū)主要包括巖鹽、石膏等礦物的溶解和方解石的沉淀,使水化學類型從HCO_(3-)Mg演變?yōu)镾O_4·HCO_(3-)Mg型水,表現(xiàn)出徑流過程中水化學類型由簡單到復雜。南部青銅峽地區(qū)在徑流過程中接受黃河灌溉水補給,地下水補徑排模式發(fā)生改變。主要發(fā)生了石膏、巖鹽、鈉長石、白云石和鉀長石的溶解,以及方解石、玉髓和高嶺石的沉淀,使下游TDS減少,但其水化學類型變化不大,分別HCO_3·SO_4-Mg·Na·Ca和HCO_(3-)Mg·Na型水。研究區(qū)承壓水主要發(fā)生了巖鹽、石膏、鈉長石和白云石的溶解和玉髓、方解石、高嶺石的沉淀,但其水化學類型均為HCO_(3-)Mg型水。本文進行的研究,是地下水研究與多元統(tǒng)計、隨機理論等數(shù)理統(tǒng)計學科相結合在我國典型干旱區(qū)灌溉平原的一個嘗試,首次運用半變異函數(shù)理論全面分析了研究區(qū)各含水層滲透系數(shù)的空間變異特性,對典型開采區(qū)地下水水位與水質變化運用馬爾科夫理論進行了預測分析,首次深入地應用多元統(tǒng)計理論對研究區(qū)地下水化學成分的影響因素進行了分析,這也是當前地下水科學研究中的一個新領域,作為一種新的探索,取得了良好的成果與成效,對其他類似灌區(qū)平原具有很好的參考和借鑒。
[Abstract]:Groundwater resources are important water sources for the survival and development of artificial irrigation plain in arid areas. However, with the rapid growth of the population and the rapid development of social economy, the demand for water resources is increasing rapidly. In addition, a series of water resources and water environment problems have been caused by the development of irrational mining and irrigated agriculture. This paper is irrigated in a typical arid area. The plain Yinchuan plain is the subject of study. Based on the variation of groundwater level and the evolution of groundwater and hydrochemistry as a clue, the theory of mathematical statistics, hydrogeology and hydrogeochemistry, combined with the hydrological and geological background of the Yinchuan plain, the characteristics of groundwater recharging and drainage, the characteristics of groundwater chemical types and the characteristics of the spatial existence of groundwater, should be used. The semivariogram theory is used to analyze the spatial variation characteristics of the permeability coefficient of different aquifers. The characteristics of groundwater quality evolution and the influencing factors are determined by the multivariate statistical method. The variation trend of groundwater level and water quality index is predicted by the random theory, and the chemical composition of the submersible water and the confined water in the study area is simulated by hydrogeochemical simulation. The following results are obtained: (1) the osmosis coefficient of the submerged aquifer in the study area is lognormal and medium variation, while the variation degree of the osmotic coefficient of the confined aquifer is obviously smaller than that of the submerged aquifer. The optimal fitting model of the submerged aquifer and the aquifer of the confined water is presented. The spatial correlation of the aquifers in the study area is 0.582 and 0.518 respectively, which shows that the permeability coefficient of the aquifers in the study area has a moderate spatial correlation. The C0 of the fitting model of each aquifer is more than 0, indicating that its continuity is poor and the diving is inferior to the confined water. (2) the application factor analysis method for the submersible water on the West Bank of the Yellow River. Sample analysis results were analyzed. Based on the characteristic value greater than 1, 4 main factors were extracted, which accounted for 82.7%. of the total variance of the original data, and the first principal factor represented evaporation concentration; second main factors represent the fecal pollution and human activities in the living area; third main factors substitute for the mixture of pressure water and diving; fourth main factor generation. Table decarbonation. For the Yellow River east coast diving, 3 principal components were extracted by principal component analysis (PCA), which accounted for 87.2%. of the total variance of the original data. The principal component 1-3 was evaporative concentration, the dissolution of carbonate and potassium containing minerals and the precipitation of fluorite minerals, the pollution of animal feces and the influence of human activity. (3) for the study area 4 main factors were extracted by the method of factor analysis, and the main factor 1 was 85.58%. of the total variance of the original data. The main factor 1 was the dissolution of rock salt, plagioclase, mirabilite and gypsum, and the main factor 2 reflected the mixed action of the diving and the confined water, the main factor 3 was the influence of the human exploitation, and the main factor 4 was the dissolution of the fluorine containing mineral. (4) the submersible water samples in the West Bank of the Yellow River are divided into three categories: A, B and C., which are widely distributed in the West Bank of the study area. The main ions are Na~+, Ca~ (2+) and HCO_3~-, and the main types of hydrochemistry are HCO_ (3-) Na, HCO_ (3-). The mass.B is mainly distributed in the alluvial fan and Yinchuan city on the west side of Shizuishan. The main ions are Mg~ (2+), HCO_3~- and SO_4~ (2-). The dominant types of hydrochemistry are HCO_ (3-) Mg and SO_4. HCO_ (3-), which are mainly distributed in the Shizuishan region downstream of the runoff region, and there are sporadic points in the human residential area in the west of Yinchuan. The main ions are Na~+, SO_4~ (2-) and Cl~-, the dominant hydrochemical type is Cl. SO_4-Na; the main ions and TDS have the highest average concentration, and the water quality is poor. The cluster analysis method is used to divide the the Yellow River east coast water samples into three categories: A, B and C. which are located in the near region from the Yellow River, and the main ions are Na~+, Cl~- and C.. The hydrochemical type is HCO_ (3-) Na.B, which is located far away from the Yellow River. The main ions and TDS are the smallest in the three classifications, indicating that the water samples are good in water quality; the main ions are Na~+, Cl~- and HCO_3~-. The types of hydrochemistry are Cl~-Na, HCO_ (3-) Na, HCO_3. The three classification is the largest, water sample is poor. The hydrochemical type is Cl~-Na. (5), which is divided into two categories: A and B. a widely distributed in the study area, representing the unpolluted state of the pressure water, the low concentration of the ions, and the better water samples; the main ions are Na~+, Mg~ (2+) and HCO_3~-, and the hydrochemical type. HCO_ (3-) Na, HCO_ (3-) Mg and HCO_ (3-) Na / Mg.B are located in the Shizuishan mountain front sloping plain and Yinchuan area, all of which are population gathering areas. The main ions and TDS of these water samples show that the water samples are poor in water quality, and the hydrochemical types are respectively HCO_ (6) according to the diving and pressure in the funnel area of the Yinchuan region for 1991-2010 years. The water level dynamic monitoring data of water characteristic point is compared with the measured water level in the 2011 and 2012 years of the Markov chain and the ground water level in the dry period of 2011 and 2012. It is found that the two are basically identical, the water level difference is C22-0.68-0.99 m of the confined water and the dive S22-0.07-0.08 m, and the relative error of the simulation is C22-0.06%-0.09%, S22-0.006%-0.007%, Biao Mingmo. The proposed water level is in accordance with the actual monitoring value. According to the water quality data of the groundwater characteristics point in the funnel area of Yinchuan area in 1991-2011 years, the state interval of the water quality indexes in 2012 is in accordance with the actual conditions. The prediction value is basically consistent with the monitoring values of the water quality indexes. (7) the influence of the multivariate statistical analysis on the potential of the study area The chemical composition of the water and the water quality of the confined water is simulated. The chemical composition of the submersible water in the region has different characteristics in the central and southern parts. The central Yinchuan area mainly includes the dissolution of rock salt, gypsum and other minerals and calcite precipitation, making the hydrochemical type from HCO_ (3-) Mg to SO_4. HC O_ (3-) Mg type water shows the hydrochemical type of the runoff process from simple to complex. The southern Qingtongxia area receives the recharge of the Yellow River irrigation water during the runoff process, and the groundwater recharge pattern changes. The dissolution of gypsum, rock salt, albite, dolomite and potassium feldspar, as well as the precipitation of calcite, chalcedony and kaolinite, and the precipitation of calcite, chalcedony and kaolinite are mainly caused by the precipitation of calcite, chalcedony and kaolinite. TDS decreased, but its hydrochemical type changed little, respectively HCO_3. SO_4-Mg. Na. Ca and HCO_ (3-) Mg. Na type water. The confined water in the study area mainly occurred the dissolution of rock salt, gypsum, albite and dolomite, and the precipitation of chalcedony, calcite and kaolinite, but the hydrochemical types were HCO_ (3-) Mg type water. The study in this paper is the study of groundwater. Combined with the mathematical statistics department, such as multivariate statistics, random theory, and other mathematical statistics departments in an attempt of the irrigation plain in typical arid areas of China, the spatial variation characteristics of the osmotic coefficient of each aquifer in the study area are analyzed for the first time by using the semi variation function theory, and the Markoff theory is used for the groundwater level and the water quality in the typical mining area. The analysis of the factors affecting the chemical composition of groundwater in the study area is analyzed for the first time. It is also a new field in the current groundwater scientific research. As a new exploration, it has achieved good results and results, and has a good reference and reference for other similar irrigated plain.
【學位授予單位】：長安大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P641.8

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