本文選題：泥石流 + 危險(xiǎn)范圍　； 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：泥石流是最為常見(jiàn)的山區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害之一，每年在全世界范圍內(nèi)都會(huì)有大量泥石流現(xiàn)象出現(xiàn)。我國(guó)國(guó)土面積廣闊，其中山地約占陸地總面積的三分之二，山區(qū)地勢(shì)陡峭，而相對(duì)平坦開(kāi)闊的地形使得泥石流堆積區(qū)成為當(dāng)?shù)鼐用裆钌a(chǎn)的核心場(chǎng)所，同時(shí)作為泥石流最后的殺傷作用帶，泥石流堆積區(qū)成為人類社會(huì)關(guān)注和科學(xué)研究的焦點(diǎn)。無(wú)論對(duì)于山區(qū)水利水電工程選址、道路選線、城鎮(zhèn)選址布局以及制定綜合防治規(guī)劃，泥石流危險(xiǎn)范圍預(yù)測(cè)都具有重要的研究意義。 本文依據(jù)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)調(diào)查和室內(nèi)試驗(yàn)資料，在分析內(nèi)蒙芝瑞抽水蓄能電站下庫(kù)區(qū)泥石流的地質(zhì)環(huán)境、溝谷特征、發(fā)育特征及運(yùn)動(dòng)特征的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合前人學(xué)術(shù)成果，重點(diǎn)研究泥石流堆積區(qū)平面形態(tài)特征并提出形態(tài)參數(shù)K1和K2，利用非線性回歸分析建立堆積區(qū)面積S和形態(tài)參數(shù)K1、K2與泥石流特征因子的函數(shù)關(guān)系式，構(gòu)建泥石流危險(xiǎn)范圍預(yù)測(cè)模型，并與傳統(tǒng)模型對(duì)比分析，同時(shí)采用預(yù)測(cè)模型對(duì)研究區(qū)內(nèi)受損嚴(yán)重的泥石流堆積區(qū)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)評(píng)價(jià)。主要得到以下結(jié)論： 研究區(qū)地處我國(guó)北方，主要為溫帶季風(fēng)氣候，年降雨量多為400~800mm。區(qū)內(nèi)泥石流多為低頻或超低頻泥石流，流域內(nèi)松散物源較少，以稀性泥石流為主。泥石流發(fā)育階段處于老年期或終止期，易發(fā)等級(jí)主要為輕度易發(fā)，單溝活動(dòng)強(qiáng)度主要為弱。 泥石流堆積區(qū)平面形態(tài)主要為扇形和近似橢圓形，其中南方地區(qū)泥石流主要為扇形堆積，研究區(qū)泥石流則主要為近似橢圓形堆積。與以往定性描述研究不同，本文提出形態(tài)參數(shù)K1和K2定量評(píng)價(jià)堆積區(qū)平面形態(tài)，形態(tài)參數(shù)K1表征堆積區(qū)縱向延伸與橫向延伸之比，，形態(tài)參數(shù)K2表征堆積區(qū)基本形狀，扇形堆積區(qū)0.5K20.67，近似橢圓形堆積區(qū)0.67K2≤0.84。 采用泥石流一次沖出固體物質(zhì)總量、泥石流容重和堆積區(qū)坡度建立堆積區(qū)面積S的方程式，采用泥石流流速、容重和堆積區(qū)坡度建立形態(tài)參數(shù)K1的方程式，且研究區(qū)近似橢圓堆積區(qū)形態(tài)參數(shù)K2取值0.67~0.84，組合后構(gòu)建研究區(qū)泥石流危險(xiǎn)范圍預(yù)測(cè)模型，模型對(duì)最大堆積長(zhǎng)度、寬度的預(yù)測(cè)誤差較小。 通過(guò)將本模型與四種傳統(tǒng)模型對(duì)比分析可知，傳統(tǒng)模型主要針對(duì)泥石流堆積區(qū)一維特征建立預(yù)測(cè)模型，忽略了二維形態(tài)的變化或假定其為一定值，因此預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果與實(shí)際有較大偏差，而本文針對(duì)堆積區(qū)二維特征直接建立預(yù)測(cè)模型，考慮其平面形態(tài)的變化，得到包含堆積區(qū)大小和形態(tài)的完整范圍。
[Abstract]:Debris flow is one of the most common geological disasters in mountainous areas. China has a vast land area, in which the mountainous area accounts for about 2/3 of the total land area. The mountainous area is steep, and the relatively flat and open terrain makes the debris flow accumulation area the core place for local residents to live and produce. At the same time, as the last killing zone of debris flow, debris flow accumulation area has become the focus of human society and scientific research. It is of great significance for the site selection of water conservancy and hydropower projects in mountainous areas, the route selection of roads, the location layout of cities and towns, and the formulation of comprehensive prevention and control planning, and the prediction of debris flow hazard range. This paper bases on field investigation and indoor test data. On the basis of analyzing the geological environment, valley characteristics, developmental characteristics and movement characteristics of debris flow in the reservoir area of Inner Mongolia Zhirui pumped Storage Power Station, combined with previous academic achievements, The plane morphological characteristics of debris flow accumulation area are studied, and the morphological parameters K _ 1 and K _ 2 are put forward. By using nonlinear regression analysis, the functional expressions of the area S, K _ 1K _ 2 and the characteristic factors of debris flow are established. The prediction model of debris flow risk range is constructed and compared with the traditional model. At the same time, the prediction model is used to predict and evaluate the debris flow accumulation area which is seriously damaged in the study area. The main conclusions are as follows: the study area is located in the north of China, mainly in the temperate monsoon climate, the annual rainfall is 400-800mm. The debris flow in this area is mostly low frequency or ultra low frequency debris flow, and the loose material source is less in the basin, and the main debris flow is dilute debris flow. The debris flow development stage is in the old or terminating period, the susceptibility grade is mainly mild, the intensity of single channel activity is mainly weak. The plane shape of debris flow accumulation area is mainly sector shape and approximate ellipse shape. The debris flow in the southern region is mainly fan-shaped and the debris flow in the study area is approximately elliptical. Different from the previous qualitative description studies, the morphological parameters K1 and K2 are proposed to quantitatively evaluate the plane shape of the stacking area. The morphological parameter K1 characterizes the ratio of longitudinal to lateral extension of the stacking area, and the morphological parameter K2 characterizes the basic shape of the stacking area. The accumulation area is 0.5K20.67 in the sector accumulation area and 0.67K2 鈮

本文編號(hào)：2003249