本文選題：清交大斷裂巖溶井 + 巨升��； 參考：《太原理工大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：2009年7月前后，位于山西太原清交大斷裂晉祠段的太原地震臺站巖溶觀測井水位出現(xiàn)了反年變動態(tài)，并在隨后的三年中持續(xù)上升了14m之多，在上升期間太原基準地震臺體應變、水管NS向、水平擺EW向、跨斷層水準測量等多項前兆觀測手段也出現(xiàn)了較顯著的異常。為此，準備把握此次水位動態(tài)的形成原因，對判斷未來震情的發(fā)展具有重要意義。觀測井前兆異常的判斷一直以來都是震情判斷的難點，確定異常來源是是判斷異常屬性的關鍵。為此，搞清井水位回升機理則是此次研究的重點。本文嘗試通過數(shù)值模型與svm理論共同分析來探討此次水位動態(tài)機理。 在前人研究的基礎上，對井孔所處地域的自然地理條件和水文地質(zhì)條件進行了歸納和整理，確定了井孔屬于晉祠泉域，并分析研究了井孔附近區(qū)域整體的水位動態(tài)變化。之后又依據(jù)泉域的水文地質(zhì)概念模型，進行了數(shù)值模擬計算，分析了井水位巨升前后期區(qū)域水位動態(tài)的變化特點。然后利用svm理論對可能引起水位回升影響因素做了分析和選取，最后判斷水位上升的主導因素，并以此對水位上升的機理進行討論。 通過分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，井孔所處邊山段裂區(qū)域的多口井（晉華酒樓，紅溝，，平泉，劉家園）均表現(xiàn)出相似的水位動態(tài)，而其水位動態(tài)在2009年至2012年內(nèi)是以上升趨勢為主，太原井的地理位置與水位動態(tài)的時序關系正與這一趨勢相當。數(shù)值模擬的結果顯示2009年后期邊上斷裂附近上升趨勢顯著，也印證了這一事實。在利用支持向量機（svm）理論尋找影響因素時，發(fā)現(xiàn)降雨量的變化及其滯后特征與人工開采仍是這一時段水位動態(tài)的主導因素，但加速上升時段水位變化還有其他影響因素存在。
[Abstract]:Around July 2009, the water level of karst observation well at Taiyuan seismic station located in the Jinci section of Qingjiaoda fault in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, appeared anti-annual variation, and continued to rise by as much as 14 m in the following three years. During the rising period, the strain of Taiyuan benchmark seismic station was observed. Some precursory observations such as NS direction of water pipe, EW direction of horizontal pendulum and leveling measurement across faults also show obvious anomalies. Therefore, it is of great significance to determine the future development of the earthquake situation by grasping the causes of the water level dynamics. It is always difficult to judge the precursory anomaly of observation well, and the key to judge the abnormal attribute is to determine the source of the anomaly. Therefore, to understand the recovery mechanism of well water level is the focus of this study. This paper attempts to discuss the dynamic mechanism of water level by numerical model and svm theory. On the basis of previous studies, the natural geographical conditions and hydrogeological conditions of the well hole are summarized and arranged. It is determined that the well hole belongs to the Jinci spring region, and the dynamic change of the whole water level in the area near the well hole is analyzed and studied. Then, according to the hydrogeological conceptual model of spring region, the numerical simulation calculation is carried out, and the characteristics of regional water level dynamic change before and after the well water level rise are analyzed. Then svm theory is used to analyze and select the factors that may cause the rise of water level. Finally, the main factors of water level rise are judged, and the mechanism of water level rise is discussed. Through analysis, it is found that many wells (Jinhua Restaurant, Honggou, Pingquan, Liu Jiayuan) in the crack area of the Bian Mountain Section where the well hole is located show similar water level dynamics, and the water level dynamic is mainly upward trend during the period from 2009 to 2012. The temporal relationship between the location of Taiyuan well and the water level is similar to this trend. The numerical simulation results show a significant upward trend near the edge fault in late 2009, which also confirms this fact. When the support vector machine (SVM) theory is used to find the influencing factors, it is found that the variation of rainfall and its lag characteristics and artificial mining are still the dominant factors of the water level dynamics in this period, but there are other factors that affect the water level change in the accelerated rising period.
【學位授予單位】：太原理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P315.723

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