本文選題：滑坡 + 易發(fā)性評(píng)價(jià)�。� 參考：《中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：蘭州市位于青藏高原和黃土高原交匯處的黃河河谷地帶,地質(zhì)環(huán)境條件復(fù)雜,受南北兩山地形的限制,土地資源緊缺,人類工程活動(dòng)強(qiáng)烈,滑坡災(zāi)害頻繁發(fā)生,已成為現(xiàn)階段制約本地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)發(fā)展的主要制約因素之一。研究開展蘭州市幅滑坡災(zāi)害易發(fā)性評(píng)價(jià)很有必要,是進(jìn)行危險(xiǎn)性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的基礎(chǔ)。滑坡災(zāi)害易發(fā)程度預(yù)測評(píng)價(jià)區(qū)劃結(jié)果,可為區(qū)域土地利用規(guī)劃編制以及氣象地質(zhì)災(zāi)害預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)提供數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)。本研究在已有滑坡空間數(shù)據(jù)庫的基礎(chǔ)上,開展滑坡控制性單要素?cái)?shù)據(jù)的敏感性分析,不斷優(yōu)化易發(fā)性評(píng)價(jià)模型,建立了一套符合該地區(qū)地質(zhì)環(huán)境特點(diǎn)的易發(fā)性評(píng)價(jià)模型方法體系及流程,為今后利用GIS技術(shù)進(jìn)行同類研究提供借鑒。根據(jù)研究區(qū)地質(zhì)環(huán)境條件,對(duì)蘭州市幅滑坡災(zāi)害的發(fā)育類型進(jìn)行大致介紹,并對(duì)滑坡發(fā)育的主要影響因素進(jìn)行分析,最終選用地形坡度、地形坡向、地形曲率、地形起伏度、土地利用類型及距道路距離作為研究區(qū)6個(gè)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),利用信息量法確定各個(gè)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,并做線性歸一化處理。用ArcGIS的空間分析功能編繪各個(gè)影響因子的權(quán)重圖層,再將這些權(quán)重圖層進(jìn)行圖層間的柵格計(jì)算,利用自然間斷點(diǎn)分級(jí)法將計(jì)算得到的易發(fā)性指標(biāo)圖層進(jìn)行分類,最終得到了蘭州市幅2016年滑坡災(zāi)害易發(fā)性分區(qū)圖層。基于現(xiàn)有資料用同樣的方法繪制2000年和2012年的滑坡災(zāi)害易發(fā)性分區(qū)圖,用ROC曲線對(duì)三年的易發(fā)分區(qū)結(jié)果進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)并做對(duì)比分析,最終選擇最符合實(shí)際情況的2016年滑坡災(zāi)害易發(fā)性分區(qū)結(jié)果,將研究區(qū)分為高易發(fā)區(qū)、中易發(fā)區(qū)、低易發(fā)區(qū)和穩(wěn)定區(qū)四類,其中高易發(fā)區(qū)主要分布在研究區(qū)南部、西北部陡峭山區(qū)及灌溉林地地帶。本文基于信息量法對(duì)蘭州市幅進(jìn)行滑坡災(zāi)害易發(fā)性評(píng)價(jià)的同時(shí),打破人們對(duì)傳統(tǒng)易發(fā)性評(píng)價(jià)的看法,在人類工程活動(dòng)強(qiáng)烈且頻繁的地區(qū),將評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的變動(dòng)和不可忽視的人類工程活動(dòng)因子考慮進(jìn)去,尋求破解地質(zhì)環(huán)境條件受人類工程活動(dòng)嚴(yán)重影響的地區(qū)開展地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性評(píng)價(jià)的瓶頸,為人們對(duì)易發(fā)性評(píng)價(jià)的認(rèn)識(shí)提供了新的視角。
[Abstract]:Lanzhou is located in the Yellow River valley at the junction of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Loess Plateau. The geological environment is complex, restricted by the topography of the northern and southern mountains, land resources are scarce, human engineering activities are intense, and landslides occur frequently. It has become one of the main restricting factors of local economy and social development at the present stage. It is necessary to study the vulnerability evaluation of landslide hazard in Lanzhou, which is the basis of hazard and risk assessment. The prediction and evaluation of landslide vulnerability can provide a data basis for regional land use planning and early warning and prediction of meteorological and geological disasters. Based on the existing landslide spatial database, the sensitivity analysis of landslide control single factor data is carried out, and the vulnerability evaluation model is optimized. A method system and flow chart of vulnerability evaluation model in accordance with the characteristics of geological environment in this area is established, which provides a reference for similar research by using GIS technology in the future. According to the geological and environmental conditions of the study area, the development types of landslide hazard in Lanzhou are introduced, and the main influencing factors of landslide development are analyzed. Finally, the slope, direction, curvature and relief of landform are selected. The land use type and the distance from the road are used as six evaluation indexes in the study area. The weight of each evaluation index is determined by the method of information quantity, and the linear normalization is done. Using the spatial analysis function of ArcGIS to draw the weight layer of each influence factor, then calculating the grid between the layers, and classifying the easiness index layer by using the natural discontinuous point classification method. Finally, the map layer of susceptibility to landslide hazard in Lanzhou in 2016 is obtained. Based on the existing data, the susceptibility zoning maps of landslide disasters in 2000 and 2012 were drawn by the same method, and the results of three years' vulnerability zoning were tested and compared with the ROC curve. Finally, according to the actual situation, the results of 2016 landslide disaster susceptibility zoning were selected, and the study was divided into four categories: high, middle, low and stable areas, in which the high risk areas were mainly distributed in the southern part of the study area. Steep mountains and irrigated woodlands in the northwest. Based on the method of information quantity, this paper, while evaluating the vulnerability of landslide hazard in Lanzhou, breaks people's view on traditional vulnerability evaluation, and it is in the area where human engineering activities are strong and frequent. Taking into account the change of evaluation indexes and the factors of human engineering activities which should not be ignored, we seek to solve the bottleneck of geological hazard vulnerability assessment in areas where geological environmental conditions are seriously affected by human engineering activities. It provides a new perspective for people's understanding of vulnerability evaluation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P694

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