本文選題：地震應急綜合演練 + 評估指標體系　； 參考：《武漢理工大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：地震應急綜合演練是地震應急準備工作中的關鍵環(huán)節(jié),其重要性越來越凸顯。開展地震應急綜合演練不僅有利于提高地震防御能力,而且是檢驗地震應急預案科學性的有效手段。近年來,地震應急綜合演練在全國范圍內開展的次數(shù)越來越多、影響越來越廣,但也逐漸暴露出演練仿真性差、實效性不顯著等問題。探討如何解決上述問題,提高地震應急綜合演練的質量和有效性,真正發(fā)揮其在檢驗預案、完善準備、鍛煉隊伍、磨合機制和科教宣傳等方面的作用勢在必行。本文結合地震應急綜合演練的特性,充分發(fā)揮地震應急綜合演練效果評估的導向性作用,期望通過實施“以評促建”來規(guī)范應急綜合演練的體系化建設。因此,本文的重點在于設計一套科學化的地震應急綜合演練效果評估指標體系,同時,評估體系要具有簡單易行、可操作性高等特征,適合地方政府使用。為此,在指標體系構建初步完成后,又與湖北省政府應急辦相關專家進行探討,對部分指標進行修訂。最終希望提供一套契合我國國情、又切實可行的地震應急綜合演練效果評估指標體系。主要研究工作和結論如下:(1)系統(tǒng)分析了地震應急綜合演練的理論和實踐特性。一方面對應急演練和應急綜合演練進行概念界定和特點分析。另一方面對地震應急綜合演練的內涵、現(xiàn)狀、影響因素和一般流程進行歸納總結。(2)基于“霍爾三維結構”的理論精髓構建了多主體的地震應急綜合演練效果評估指標體系。在對本領域其它理論體系總結、借鑒、學習的基礎上,構建了以專業(yè)評估和參加者評估為主體的地震應急綜合演練效果評估指標體系,其中專業(yè)評估的一級指標3個,分別為演練前、演練中和演練后;二級指標在一級指標基礎上確定了10個具有代表性的指標,三級指標是根據(jù)二級指標確定的細則,包含37個指標。在參加者評估中,一級指標3個,為演練前培訓、演練中參與和演練后提高,二級指標9個,共同構成地震應急綜合演練效果評估指標體系。(3)建立了地震應急綜合演練效果評估模型。首先,運用層次分析法構建兩兩判斷矩陣,計算各指標的權重;然后,建立了基于多級模糊綜合評價的地震應急綜合演練評估模型;最后,通過五級評估標準實證分析了十堰市十萬人地震應急疏散救援綜合演練效果,驗證了模型的科學性和可操作性。(4)提出了在演練目標、情景設計、演練協(xié)同、群眾參與、演練評估、預案完善6個方面提高十堰市地震應急綜合演練效果的針對性建議。
[Abstract]:Seismic emergency comprehensive exercise is a key link in earthquake emergency preparedness, and its importance is becoming more and more prominent. It is not only helpful to improve the ability of earthquake defense, but also an effective means to test the scientific nature of earthquake emergency plan. In recent years, more and more comprehensive earthquake emergency drills have been carried out in the whole country, and the influence is more and more extensive. However, the problems such as poor simulation performance and low effectiveness have been gradually exposed. It is imperative to discuss how to solve the above problems, improve the quality and effectiveness of the comprehensive earthquake emergency drill, and give full play to its role in checking the plan, perfecting the preparation, training the team, running in the mechanism and propagating the science and education. Combined with the characteristics of seismic emergency comprehensive exercise, this paper gives full play to the guiding role of the evaluation of the effect of earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise, and expects to standardize the systematic construction of the emergency comprehensive exercise by implementing "evaluation and construction". Therefore, the emphasis of this paper is to design a scientific evaluation index system for the effect of earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise. At the same time, the evaluation system should have the characteristics of simplicity and high maneuverability, which is suitable for the use of local governments. Therefore, after the initial completion of the index system, the author discussed with the experts of Hubei Provincial Government Emergency response Office, and revised some of the indicators. Finally, we hope to provide a set of effective evaluation index system for earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise, which is suitable to our country's national conditions and feasible. The main research work and conclusions are as follows: 1) the theoretical and practical characteristics of earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise are systematically analyzed. On the one hand, the concept and characteristics of emergency drills and emergency comprehensive exercises are defined and analyzed. On the other hand, the connotation, current situation, influencing factors and general process of seismic emergency comprehensive exercise are summarized. 2) based on the theory essence of "Hall three-dimensional structure", the multi-agent evaluation index system of seismic emergency comprehensive exercise effect is constructed. Based on the summary, reference and study of other theoretical systems in this field, an evaluation index system of the effect of earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise is constructed, in which professional evaluation and participant evaluation are the main body, among which there are three first-grade indexes for professional evaluation. Before the exercise, after the exercise and after the exercise, 10 representative indexes were determined on the basis of the first-level index, and the third-level index was determined according to the detailed rules of the second-level index, which included 37 indicators. In the participants' assessment, there were 3 first-level indicators, 9 second-level indicators, for pre-exercise training, participation and improvement after drills, The evaluation model of seismic emergency comprehensive exercise effect is established in this paper. First, using AHP to construct pairwise judgment matrix and calculate the weight of each index; then, the evaluation model of earthquake emergency comprehensive exercise based on multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is established. This paper empirically analyzes the effect of comprehensive exercise of earthquake emergency evacuation and rescue of 100,000 people in Shiyan City by means of the five-level evaluation standard, and verifies the scientific and operable nature of the model. It puts forward the objectives of the exercise, scenario design, exercise cooperation, and mass participation. Six aspects of improving the effect of comprehensive earthquake emergency drills in Shiyan City are suggested.
【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P315.9

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