本文選題：崩塌 + 概率分析��； 參考：《工程地質(zhì)學(xué)報》2017年02期

【摘要】：我國多山,崩塌災(zāi)害頻繁發(fā)生,相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險評價也得到了越來越多的關(guān)注。由于崩塌發(fā)生和運(yùn)移過程的高度不確定性以及歷史數(shù)據(jù)的不完備,往往很難進(jìn)行相應(yīng)的定量風(fēng)險評價。四川羅家青杠嶺的崩塌現(xiàn)場非常典型,而且現(xiàn)場資料較全、歷史數(shù)據(jù)較多并且明確,是開展崩塌風(fēng)險定量研究的很好實例。通過現(xiàn)場工程地質(zhì)調(diào)查、測繪和統(tǒng)計分析,確定了歷史崩塌的物源區(qū)、堆積區(qū)、最大運(yùn)移距離、年發(fā)生概率以及坡體上的4塊典型危巖體A-D�；跉v史崩塌堆積區(qū)的塊石統(tǒng)計特征以及物源區(qū)危巖體失穩(wěn)啟動位置的不確定性,利用二維Rockfall模擬軟件對所在坡面的恢復(fù)系數(shù)及摩擦系數(shù)進(jìn)行了反演。在此基礎(chǔ)上,對危巖體A-D失穩(wěn)后的運(yùn)動特征進(jìn)行了隨機(jī)性數(shù)值模擬和統(tǒng)計分析,從而確定了崩塌的到達(dá)概率�；诒浪l(fā)生概率、到達(dá)概率、承災(zāi)體時空分布概率和易損性的乘積,作者對羅家青杠嶺崩塌進(jìn)行了定量風(fēng)險評價。評價結(jié)果表明,危巖體A和D的風(fēng)險值處于不可接受的風(fēng)險區(qū)間,塊石B和C的風(fēng)險值處于警告的風(fēng)險區(qū)間,嚴(yán)重威脅著坡腳附近居民的生命財產(chǎn)安全,有必要采取相應(yīng)的防災(zāi)減災(zāi)措施。
[Abstract]:With the frequent occurrence of mountain collapse disaster in China, the corresponding risk assessment has been paid more and more attention. Due to the high uncertainty in the process of collapse and migration and the incomplete historical data, it is often difficult to evaluate the corresponding quantitative risk. The collapse site of Luojiazingzhouling in Sichuan Province is very typical, and the site data is complete, the historical data is more and more clear, and it is a good example to carry out quantitative research on the risk of collapse. Through field engineering geological survey, mapping and statistical analysis, the source area, accumulation area, maximum migration distance, annual occurrence probability and A-D of four typical dangerous rock masses on slope are determined. Based on the statistical characteristics of rock blocks in the historical collapse and accumulation area and the uncertainty of the unstable starting position of the dangerous rock mass in the provenance area, the restoration coefficient and friction coefficient of the slope are inversed by using two-dimensional Rockfall simulation software. On this basis, the random numerical simulation and statistical analysis of the motion characteristics after A-D instability of dangerous rock mass are carried out, and the arrival probability of collapse is determined. Based on the product of probability of occurrence of collapse, probability of arrival, probability of space-time distribution of disaster bearing body and vulnerability, the author evaluated the quantitative risk of Luojia-qingzhouling collapse. The results show that the risk values of dangerous rock mass A and D are in the unacceptable risk range, and the risk values of block B and C are in the warning risk range, which seriously threaten the life and property safety of the residents near the foot of the slope. It is necessary to take corresponding measures for disaster prevention and mitigation.
【作者單位】： 中國科學(xué)院地質(zhì)與地球物理研究所;中國科學(xué)院大學(xué);北京中色資源環(huán)境工程股份有限公司;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金(41402285,40502027)資助
【分類號】：P642.21
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本文編號：1946042