本文選題：地震災害 + 間接經(jīng)濟損失　； 參考：《西安建筑科技大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：當前我國發(fā)生地震災害之后,國家和各地區(qū)政府機構主要將精力和工作內(nèi)容集中在人員傷亡統(tǒng)計和直接經(jīng)濟損失評估上,對間接經(jīng)濟損失評估的重要性認識不足。政府機構若能重視對震害間接經(jīng)濟損失評估及分析,將會有效地指導接下來的防災救災和恢復重建工作。當前國內(nèi)對間接經(jīng)濟損失評估研究尚處于起步階段,本文通過系統(tǒng)總結國內(nèi)外關于地震災害間接經(jīng)濟損失評估的研究成果,圍繞地震災害間接經(jīng)濟損失界定不清、當前評估模型可操作性不強等問題,深度分析傳統(tǒng)投入產(chǎn)出模型并進行改進,以汶川大地震為算例進行了驗證,最終得出一種有效的評估方法。論文主要研究內(nèi)容包括:1、研究了當前地震災害間接損失的內(nèi)涵并重新界定了其范圍。本文通過閱讀大量中外關于間接經(jīng)濟損失的文獻,針對當前其范圍界定不清問題,提出了自己的界定方式:指出地震救災投入費用不屬于間接經(jīng)濟損失范疇,認為地震災害帶來災區(qū)生產(chǎn)部門的總間接經(jīng)濟損失只包括停產(chǎn)減產(chǎn)損失和產(chǎn)業(yè)關聯(lián)損失。2、改進了傳統(tǒng)投入產(chǎn)出模型。本文從模型可操作性和數(shù)據(jù)可獲得性方面,確定利用投入產(chǎn)出模型進行間接經(jīng)濟損失評估。傳統(tǒng)模型中將直接經(jīng)濟損失看作是最終產(chǎn)品的損失,未考慮中間投入產(chǎn)品的損失,本文將直接經(jīng)濟損失的范疇界定在總產(chǎn)品損失層面上,并對不同類型的產(chǎn)業(yè)部門分別評估其停產(chǎn)減產(chǎn)損失和產(chǎn)業(yè)關聯(lián)損失。3、通過汶川地震實例驗證了改進投入產(chǎn)出模型的有效性和科學性。本文分別利用傳統(tǒng)投入產(chǎn)出模型與改進投入產(chǎn)出模型評估汶川地震對四川省經(jīng)濟部門造成的間接經(jīng)濟損失。通過對比分析,驗證了改進后模型的科學性和可操作性。最后得出結論認為改進的投入產(chǎn)出模型比傳統(tǒng)模型更精確,相比于改進的消耗系數(shù)法,改進的分配系數(shù)法更合理科學。本文在重新界定間接經(jīng)濟損失范疇的基礎上,對傳統(tǒng)投入產(chǎn)出評估模型加以改進。模型改進后,不僅提高了評估結果的準確度,而且能分別求出各部門的停減產(chǎn)損失和產(chǎn)業(yè)關聯(lián)損失,為我國地震災害間接經(jīng)濟損失評估工作提供參考和建議。
[Abstract]:After the earthquake disaster happened in our country at present, the national and regional government agencies mainly concentrated their energy and work on the statistics of casualties and direct economic loss assessment, but they did not understand the importance of indirect economic loss assessment. If government agencies attach importance to the assessment and analysis of the indirect economic losses of the earthquake disaster, they will effectively guide the disaster prevention and relief and recovery and reconstruction work in the future. At present, the research on indirect economic loss assessment in China is still in its infancy. This paper systematically summarizes the research results of indirect economic loss assessment of earthquake disaster at home and abroad, and the definition of indirect economic loss of earthquake disaster is unclear. The traditional input-output model is deeply analyzed and improved, which is verified by the Wenchuan earthquake as an example, and finally an effective evaluation method is obtained. The main contents of this paper are as follows: 1. The connotation of indirect loss of earthquake disaster is studied and its scope is redefined. By reading a large number of literatures on indirect economic losses at home and abroad and aiming at the unclear definition of its scope at present, this paper puts forward its own defining methods: it points out that the cost of earthquake disaster relief investment does not belong to the category of indirect economic losses. It is considered that the total indirect economic losses of the production departments in the disaster areas caused by the earthquake disasters only include the loss of production cut down and the loss of industrial association. 2. The traditional input-output model is improved. In this paper, the input-output model is used to evaluate the indirect economic loss in terms of model maneuverability and data availability. In the traditional model, the direct economic loss is regarded as the loss of the final product, and the loss of intermediate input product is not considered. In this paper, the category of direct economic loss is defined on the level of total product loss. The different types of industry departments are evaluated for the loss of production cut down and the loss of industrial association respectively. The effectiveness and scientific nature of the improved input-output model are verified by the Wenchuan earthquake. In this paper, the traditional input-output model and the improved input-output model are used to evaluate the indirect economic losses caused by the Wenchuan earthquake. Through comparative analysis, the improved model is verified to be scientific and operational. Finally, it is concluded that the improved input-output model is more accurate than the traditional model, and compared with the improved consumption coefficient method, the improved allocation coefficient method is more reasonable and scientific. On the basis of redefining the category of indirect economic loss, this paper improves the traditional input-output evaluation model. The improved model not only improves the accuracy of the evaluation results, but also can calculate the loss of cut down and industry correlation of various departments, and provides reference and suggestions for the assessment of indirect economic losses of earthquake disasters in China.
【學位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P315.9

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