發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-25 09:16

  本文選題：關(guān)中盆地 + 氣候變化　； 參考：《長安大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：水是生命之源,是人類生存和發(fā)展必不可少的資源,而我國人均淡水資源量遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于世界的平均水平,近些年來在全球氣候變暖和人類活動(dòng)影響下,水資源量急劇減少,河流流量減少甚至斷流、水環(huán)境開始惡化,直接威脅著人類的生存和發(fā)展。關(guān)中盆地是資源性缺水地區(qū),氣溫、降水、蒸發(fā)、徑流、地下水位等水循環(huán)要素受氣候變化的影響發(fā)生了明顯的改變,水資源供需矛盾更加突出,水資源安全形勢更為嚴(yán)峻,因此研究關(guān)中盆地地下水對(duì)氣候變化的響應(yīng)顯得尤為迫切和重要。本論文以地下水對(duì)氣候變化的響應(yīng)為主線,研究了關(guān)中盆地近六十年的氣溫和降水量的變化特征,運(yùn)用MK趨勢分析和MK突變檢驗(yàn)分別對(duì)年平均氣溫、季平均氣溫、年降水量、季降水量序列進(jìn)行了分析,并用小波分析分析了年平均氣溫和年降水量的周期性變化;根據(jù)將近三十年的地下水位長期觀測資料,分析了關(guān)中盆地地下水位空間分布和動(dòng)態(tài)變化特征;利用DEM數(shù)字高程數(shù)據(jù)、土地利用類型數(shù)據(jù)、土壤屬性數(shù)據(jù)、降水和氣溫資料,建立了SWAT水文分布模型,設(shè)定氣候變化情景模式,計(jì)算出氣候變化情景下地下水的變化。最后得出如下結(jié)論:1.關(guān)中盆地年降水量從1960年左右開始有減少的趨勢,但減少的趨勢不顯著,1995年以后,年降水量才呈現(xiàn)顯著的減少趨勢。關(guān)中盆地不同地區(qū)年降水量的突變時(shí)間不同,武功、西安和華山的突變時(shí)間分別為1961年、1966年和1986年。關(guān)中盆地年降水量存在3年、5年,20年、35年左右的周期,其中20年和35年左右的周期最為顯著。關(guān)中盆地秋季和春季近幾年降水量減少趨勢明顯,冬季和夏季變化不明顯。2.關(guān)中盆地年平均氣溫從1990年左右開始呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,到2000年后這種上升趨勢開始更加顯著。寶雞、西安和華山三個(gè)地區(qū)的年平均氣溫突變時(shí)間均在1995年左右,而武功的突變點(diǎn)在1990年。關(guān)中盆地年平均氣溫存在15年、30年左右的周期,其中30年左右的周期最為顯著。關(guān)中盆地冬季和秋季氣溫從1995年開始顯著升高,春季氣溫從2003年開始有顯著的增加趨勢,而夏季氣溫變化不明顯。3.關(guān)中盆地地下水水位分布與地形等高線基本一致,地下水流由盆地兩側(cè)向盆地中心偏東方向運(yùn)動(dòng)。關(guān)中盆地地下水水位在上世紀(jì)八十年代基本隨著降水量變化處于波動(dòng)階段,進(jìn)入九十年代,地下水出現(xiàn)緩慢的下降趨勢,到1995年,地下水位開始急劇的下降,直到2000年,地下水位下降趨勢才有所緩解,部分地區(qū)水位還出現(xiàn)回升。4.利用數(shù)字高程數(shù)據(jù),土地利用數(shù)據(jù)、土壤數(shù)據(jù)、氣象數(shù)據(jù)等,建立關(guān)中盆地整個(gè)流域的SWAT水文模型。由模型計(jì)算地下水補(bǔ)給量隨著降水量的增加而增加,當(dāng)氣溫不變,降水量減少10%時(shí),地下水補(bǔ)給量減少29.83%,降水量增加10%時(shí),地下水補(bǔ)給量增加34.52%。當(dāng)降水量不變時(shí),溫度增加對(duì)地下水補(bǔ)給量影響很小,溫度增加一攝氏度時(shí),地下水補(bǔ)給量減少1.1%。5.耦合SWAT模型和MODFLOW模型,計(jì)算氣候變化情景模式下地下水位的變化。當(dāng)降水量增加或減少10%時(shí),地下水位也相應(yīng)的增加或減少0.6~1.5m,不同的地區(qū)水位變化幅度有所差異。氣溫變化對(duì)地下水位影響很小。
[Abstract]:Water is the source of life and essential resources for the survival and development of human beings. The amount of freshwater resources per capita in China is far below the average level of the world. In recent years, under the influence of global warming and human activities, the amount of water resources has been reduced sharply, the flow of rivers is reduced or even disconnected, and the water environment has begun to deteriorate, which directly threatens the survival and survival of human beings. Development. Guanzhong Basin is a resource deficient area. The water circulation factors such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, runoff and groundwater level have been greatly affected by the influence of climate change. The contradiction between supply and demand of water resources is more prominent and the situation of water resources safety is more severe. Therefore, it is particularly urgent to study the response of groundwater to climate change in Guanzhong Basin. This paper, taking the response of groundwater to climate change as the main line, studied the change characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Guanzhong Basin for nearly sixty years. The MK trend analysis and MK mutation test were used to analyze the annual mean temperature, seasonal average temperature, annual precipitation and seasonal drop water, and the annual mean temperature was analyzed with wavelet analysis. According to the long-term observation data of the groundwater level for nearly thirty years, the spatial distribution and dynamic change characteristics of the groundwater level in Guanzhong Basin are analyzed, and the SWAT hydrological distribution model is set up by using DEM digital elevation data, land use type data, soil attribute data, precipitation and temperature data, and climate change is set up. Finally, the following conclusions are drawn: the annual precipitation in the 1. Guanzhong Basin has been reduced from around 1960, but the decrease trend is not significant. After 1995, the annual precipitation has a significant reduction trend. The change time of annual precipitation in the different areas of the central basin is different. The mutation time of Xi'an and Huashan in Xi'an and Huashan is 1961, 1966 and 1986 respectively. The annual precipitation in Guanzhong Basin is 3 years, 5 years, 20 years, and 35 years, of which the period of 20 and 35 years is the most obvious. The average temperature began to rise from around 1990, and the rising trend began to become more significant after 2000. The average annual temperature mutation time in three regions of Baoji, Xi'an and Huashan were around 1995, and the abrupt point of Wu Gong was in 1990. The annual average temperature in Guanzhong Basin was 15 years, 30 years or so, of which about 30 years. The winter and autumn temperature in Guanzhong Basin began to rise significantly from 1995, and the temperature in spring began to increase significantly in the spring from 2003, but the change of the temperature of the summer temperature was not obvious in the.3. Guanzhong Basin. The groundwater level distribution was basically consistent with the topographic contour line, and the groundwater flow was moved from both sides of the basin to the east of the basin center. In the 80s last century, the water level of the basin was basically in the fluctuating stage with the change of precipitation. In 90s, the groundwater decreased slowly. By 1995, the groundwater level began to decline sharply. Until 2000, the downward trend of the groundwater level was slowly solved, and the water level in some areas was also rising.4. using the high number of figures. The SWAT hydrological model of the whole valley of Guanzhong Basin is established by the process data, land use data, soil data, meteorological data and so on. The model calculation of groundwater recharge increases with the increase of precipitation. When the temperature is fixed, the precipitation is reduced by 10%, the groundwater recharge is reduced by 29.83% and the precipitation is increased by 10%, the groundwater recharge is increased by 34.52%. When the amount of precipitation is constant, the effect of temperature increase on the supply of groundwater is very small. When the temperature increases one degree centigrade, the groundwater recharge reduces the 1.1%.5. coupling SWAT model and the MODFLOW model, and calculates the change of the groundwater level under the climate change scenario model. When the precipitation increases or decreases by 10%, the groundwater level is also increased or reduced by 0.6~1.5m, The variation of water level varies in different regions. The change of temperature has little effect on the groundwater level.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：P641;P467

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本文編號(hào)：1932897