本文選題：村鎮(zhèn)居民 + 公共安全風(fēng)險�。� 參考：《中國安全科學(xué)學(xué)報》2017年01期

【摘要】：突發(fā)公共安全事件中的人員傷亡取決于危害因素與人群的時空分布的重合程度,建立健全的居民生活模式參數(shù)模型庫可為地震等突發(fā)性公共安全風(fēng)險防范和應(yīng)急管理提供依據(jù)。報告了在中國較大范圍開展的村鎮(zhèn)居民生活模式參數(shù)問卷調(diào)查(HAPRRES)結(jié)果,包括生活模式參數(shù)、優(yōu)化建模方法和仿真方法等。著重分析了種植業(yè)者群體的生活模式參數(shù)及其模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)區(qū)分不同的日工作安排(以日工作段數(shù)為參數(shù))對活動參數(shù)分別建模,并且模型穩(wěn)健性較好。利用模型庫仿真再現(xiàn)得到人群分布,擬合出我國地震中毀壞建筑物內(nèi)處于睡眠或清醒狀態(tài)居民的不同死亡率,證實不同空間和活動狀態(tài)的居民的傷亡概率有顯著差異。
[Abstract]:The casualties in sudden public safety events depend on the degree of coincidence between the hazard factors and the temporal and spatial distribution of the population. The establishment of a sound model base of the residents' life pattern parameters can provide a basis for the prevention and emergency management of sudden public safety risks such as earthquakes. This paper reports the results of HAPRRES, including life model parameters, optimization modeling methods and simulation methods, which have been carried out in a large range of villages and towns in China. Based on the analysis of the life pattern parameters and their models of growers, it is found that different daily working arrangements (taking the number of working segments per day as parameters) are used to model the activity parameters respectively, and the model is robust. By using the model base to simulate and reproduce the population distribution, the different mortality rates of residents in sleep or awake state in damaged buildings in earthquake in China were fitted, and it was proved that there were significant differences in the casualty probability of residents in different space and active state.
【作者單位】： 北京師范大學(xué)環(huán)境演變與自然災(zāi)害教育部重點實驗室;北京師范大學(xué)地表過程與資源生態(tài)國家重點實驗室;北京師范大學(xué)減災(zāi)與應(yīng)急管理研究院;
【基金】：國家科技支撐計劃項目(2012BAJ24B04)
【分類號】：P315.9;D63
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本文編號：1919014