本文選題：多尺度 + 液化災害區(qū)劃　； 參考：《中國地震局工程力學研究所》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：大量的震害調查結果表明,地震誘發(fā)的液化災害是比較普遍且危害性大的地震災害之一。2016年臺灣高雄地震,土壤液化嚴重,造成了民眾的恐慌。震后臺灣“行政院”立即組織發(fā)布了液化潛勢查詢系統,民眾爭相登錄查詢,甚至導致該系統的癱瘓。由此可見,進一步深入研究液化災害區(qū)劃圖對防災減災具有深遠的意義。許多專家學者都已經探索減輕這一破壞的辦法,其中最主要的途徑就是像地震區(qū)劃一樣用圖紙將易于液化的區(qū)域展示出來。本文提出多尺度液化災害區(qū)劃和評估技術,對于多尺度問題,我國滑坡區(qū)劃技術研究及實踐中已經有成功的實例,借鑒國外一些機構提出的比較成熟的規(guī)范中相關的地質災害風險管理控制或評價層次、精度和適用范圍等資料文獻,制作出不同精度,不同應用范圍,能夠顯示特定區(qū)劃水平要求信息的地質災害風險評價分區(qū)圖。而我國對液化災害區(qū)劃和評估并沒有相應的系統的技術,并且由于引發(fā)地震液化的條件復雜,諸多因素制約著液化災害的有效預防,各地經濟發(fā)展水平不一,因此液化災害調查研究水平各異。針對這些經濟上、政治上和自然條件的不均勻性,以及不同的研究區(qū)域對精度要求不同,本文提出了多尺度液化災害區(qū)劃的概念,并提出一套適于不同尺度的液化災害區(qū)劃及評估技術,為政府土地利用和減災防災規(guī)劃、工程建設、液化災害科學管理、地震應急救援和震害調查工作等提供支持,為我國液化災害風險分析工作提供必要的技術支持。論文以我國滑坡區(qū)劃技術的發(fā)展為借鑒,提出針對不同規(guī)模區(qū)域的多尺度的液化區(qū)劃及評估技術,給出關于液化災害的整體分布,主要工作如下:1.提出了多尺度液化災害區(qū)劃的概念、內涵及指導思想;對國際現有液化區(qū)劃技術、相關理論進行了詳細總結與剖析,指出了其不足;指出了國際上的現有方法在我國本土化方面遇到的問題,為方法的改進及本土化奠定了基礎,為推動我國液化災害風險理論研究提供了重要線索。2.發(fā)展了小尺度液化側移區(qū)劃技術,放棄了以往各參數相互獨立假定,采用數據驅使的建模方法,提出了基于MARS液化側移計算模型,提高了單一場地以及小區(qū)劃的液化側移計算精度。采用不需要特定的假設的多元自適應樣條回歸法MARS計算液化側移,對比結果表明,采用MARS模型計算的液化側移比MLR有更大的優(yōu)勢,結果與實際值更相符。3.提出了一套中等尺度液化側移區(qū)劃技術,給出了面元素提取方法,克服了現有方法過分依賴高密度鉆孔的弊端,實現了節(jié)約鉆孔數量同時又保證必要精度下的中等尺度液化側移區(qū)劃的目標。4.基于國際上權威數據庫,采用CART法得到了各參量影響度及主要影響參數,構建了液化側移災害等級分類決策樹,提出了新的液化側移等級判別標準LLSL(Liquefaction Lateral Spread Level)并給出其合理性和可靠性的驗證。5.根據實際需求和研究現狀,選用易于大面積獲取且能較好表征液化影響的特征參數,構建了一套無需鉆孔資料的區(qū)域液化風險評估模型,實現了大尺度液化可能性的粗略估計及震后可能液化區(qū)的快速評估。提出了兩種1:100萬尺度的液化風險區(qū)劃方法,其一是LSLRM(Large-Scale Liquefaction Risk Map),液化風險計算采用統一模型,模型依靠四個參數:ShakeMap地震動圖、濕度指數CTI、場地剪切波速VS30和與到河流的距離DR;其二是DLSLRM(Division Large-Scale Liquefaction Risk Map),按“地質準則”準則將研究區(qū)域分為三大類別區(qū),各個類別區(qū)的液化風險計算采用各自模型以提高評估精度。
[Abstract]:A large number of earthquake damage investigation results show that the liquefaction induced by earthquake is one of the most common and harmful earthquake disasters in Taiwan Kaohsiung earthquake in Taiwan. The soil liquefaction is serious, causing the panic of the people. After the earthquake, the Taiwan "administrative hospital" immediately organized a liquefaction potential query system, the people scrambled to login and inquired, even led to the Department. It can be seen that further in-depth study of the liquefied disaster zoning map is of profound significance to disaster prevention and reduction. Many experts and scholars have explored ways to mitigate this damage. The most important way is to show the liquefied areas in the same way as seismic zoning. This paper proposes a multi-scale liquefied disaster area. In the study and practice of the landslide zoning technology in China, there have been successful examples in the research and practice of the landslide regionalization technology in China. The zoning map of geological hazard risk assessment can show the requirement of specific zoning level, but there is no corresponding system technology for the division and evaluation of liquefaction disaster in China, and many factors restrict the effective prevention of liquefied disasters because of the complicated conditions of earthquake liquefaction. In this paper, the concept of multi scale liquefied disaster zoning is proposed, and a set of technology for the division and evaluation of liquefaction hazard suitable for different scales is put forward for the government's land use and disaster mitigation planning, as well as the heterogeneity of the political and natural conditions and the different requirements for different research areas. Engineering construction, scientific management of liquefied disasters, earthquake emergency rescue and earthquake damage investigation are provided to provide the necessary technical support for the risk analysis of liquefied disaster in China. The paper takes the development of the landslide zoning technology in our country for reference, and puts forward the multi-scale liquefied zoning and evaluation technology for different scale regions. The main work of the overall distribution of liquefied disasters is as follows: 1. the concept, connotation and guiding ideology of multi-scale liquefied disaster zoning are put forward, and the relevant theories of international liquefied regionalization and related theories are summarized and analyzed in detail, and the shortcomings are pointed out, and the problems encountered in the localization of our country are pointed out, and the methods are proposed. The improvement and localization laid the foundation, and provided an important clue for the study of the theory of liquefaction hazard in China,.2. developed the small scale liquefaction side migration zoning technology, gave up the previous parameters independent assumption and adopted the data driven modeling method, and proposed a calculation model based on the MARS liquid lateral displacement, which improved the single site and the small size. The calculation accuracy of the liquefaction lateral displacement of the division. The liquefaction side shift is calculated by the multiple adaptive spline regression method, which does not need the specific hypothesis. The comparison results show that the liquefaction side shift calculated by the MARS model has a greater advantage than that of MLR, and the result is more consistent with the actual value than the actual value. The result is a set of medium and equal scale liquefaction zoning technology, and a set of surface elements is given by.3.. The method of element extraction overcomes the disadvantages of excessive dependence of high density boreholes in the existing methods, and realizes the target.4. for saving the number of boreholes and ensuring the necessary precision of the medium scale liquefaction zoning based on the international authoritative database. The influence degree and the main influence parameters of the parameters are obtained by the CART method, and the liquefaction side displacement disaster is constructed. A new classification decision tree is proposed, and a new criterion LLSL (Liquefaction Lateral Spread Level) is proposed and its rationality and reliability are verified. According to the actual requirements and research status,.5. is used to construct a set of area without drilling data, which is easy to obtain in large area and can better characterize the effect of liquefaction. The liquefaction risk assessment model has realized the rough estimation of the possibility of large scale liquefaction and the rapid assessment of the potential liquefaction area after the earthquake. Two kinds of 1:100 ten thousand scale liquefaction risk zoning methods are proposed, one is LSLRM (Large-Scale Liquefaction Risk Map), the liquefaction risk calculation adopts a unified model, and the model relies on the vibration of the ShakeMap ground motion. Figure, humidity index CTI, site shear wave velocity VS30 and distance to river DR; second is DLSLRM (Division Large-Scale Liquefaction Risk Map). According to the "geological criteria" criterion, the study area is divided into three major categories, and the liquefaction risk of each category area is calculated by each model in order to improve the evaluation accuracy.

【學位授予單位】：中國地震局工程力學研究所
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：P315.9

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