本文選題：地震早期預(yù)警 + 預(yù)警盲區(qū)�。� 參考：《中國(guó)地震局地球物理研究所》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：國(guó)家地震烈度速報(bào)與預(yù)警工程正在建設(shè)過(guò)程中,這個(gè)全國(guó)性、大規(guī)模的系統(tǒng)不僅對(duì)提升我國(guó)地震監(jiān)測(cè)基礎(chǔ)能力,而且對(duì)降低地震災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都具有重要的意義。深入地研究與地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)及其設(shè)計(jì)與優(yōu)化相關(guān)的基本問(wèn)題,將為確保這個(gè)大型系統(tǒng)發(fā)揮其防震減災(zāi)效益提供科學(xué)參考。在地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計(jì)與優(yōu)化過(guò)程中,預(yù)警“盲區(qū)”是一個(gè)關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題。本文選取國(guó)家地震烈度速報(bào)與預(yù)警工程的兩個(gè)重點(diǎn)地震預(yù)警區(qū),即南北地震帶地區(qū)()和華北首都圈地區(qū)()作為目標(biāo)研究區(qū),對(duì)預(yù)警“盲區(qū)”所涉及的理論問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的分析。本文試圖以現(xiàn)代地震學(xué)為背景開(kāi)展討論,并得出以下認(rèn)識(shí):1)結(jié)合地震觀測(cè)和解釋實(shí)踐的實(shí)際情況,本文提出了“盲區(qū)”控制的概念,并對(duì)此進(jìn)行了分析。認(rèn)為在圍繞理論的“黑色(硬)盲區(qū)”的周?chē)?實(shí)際上還有一個(gè)“灰色(軟)盲區(qū)”,這個(gè)“軟盲區(qū)”可以簡(jiǎn)單地通過(guò)提高地震臺(tái)站的密度來(lái)進(jìn)行控制以使其最小化。本文還提出了實(shí)際觸發(fā)臺(tái)站數(shù)目、臺(tái)站布設(shè)密度和實(shí)際“盲區(qū)”之間的一個(gè)半定量關(guān)系,這個(gè)關(guān)系無(wú)論是對(duì)地震臺(tái)網(wǎng)還是對(duì)地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的性能評(píng)估和質(zhì)量控制可能都具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。2)地震破裂的有限性是現(xiàn)代地震學(xué)中一個(gè)重要的概念,其對(duì)地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的布局設(shè)計(jì)具有重要意義。本文通過(guò)一些震例的假定情形,討論了這一問(wèn)題。認(rèn)為地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)對(duì)于地震減災(zāi)所能發(fā)揮的作用要遠(yuǎn)大于傳統(tǒng)地震學(xué)視角下的預(yù)期。這一觀點(diǎn)深化了目前認(rèn)為預(yù)警臺(tái)站應(yīng)該適當(dāng)考慮不要均勻布設(shè)的認(rèn)識(shí),強(qiáng)調(diào)在發(fā)生大地震時(shí),近斷層區(qū)域密集布設(shè)的預(yù)警臺(tái)站可能會(huì)使地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)更加有效。3)能夠識(shí)別近斷層強(qiáng)震動(dòng)記錄的最佳識(shí)別函數(shù)(或稱(chēng)之為函數(shù))具有快速報(bào)告地震破裂大小的潛在應(yīng)用價(jià)值。而現(xiàn)實(shí)的情況是,在大部分國(guó)土上布設(shè)的強(qiáng)震臺(tái)站是有限的。結(jié)合這一情況以及地震破裂的特點(diǎn),本文討論了一種考慮一維地震破裂傳播的簡(jiǎn)化方法,這種方法基于斷層幾何和破裂方向性的快速檢索。“盲區(qū)”的存在可能會(huì)影響這種方法的測(cè)定時(shí)間進(jìn)而反過(guò)來(lái)影響地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的性能,本文對(duì)該問(wèn)題也做了一些討論。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),在“盲區(qū)”的觀點(diǎn)上認(rèn)為地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)一無(wú)是處(或者說(shuō)是高成本效益)的觀點(diǎn)一直是存在的�？梢灶A(yù)料,本文的分析可能會(huì)為此帶來(lái)一些別樣的曙光。本文的意義旨在啟發(fā)一些與“盲區(qū)”相關(guān)的“盲點(diǎn)”,并分析一些在現(xiàn)代地震學(xué)新視野下的“盲區(qū)”問(wèn)題。
[Abstract]:In the process of construction of national seismic intensity and early warning engineering, this national and large-scale system not only has an important significance to improve the basic ability of earthquake monitoring in our country, but also to reduce the risk of earthquake disaster. It is necessary to study the basic problems related to the earthquake warning system and its design and optimization, which will ensure the great importance. In the design and optimization of earthquake early warning system, the early warning "blind area" is a key problem. In this paper, two key earthquake early warning areas of the national earthquake intensity quick report and early warning project, that is, the north and South seismic belt area () and the North China capital circle area () are selected as the target research area. This paper makes a systematic analysis of the theoretical problems involved in the early warning "blind area". This paper attempts to carry out a discussion on the background of modern seismology, and draws the following understanding: 1) the concept of "blind area" control is put forward in this paper, combined with the actual situation of seismic observation and interpretation practice. In fact, there is a "gray (soft) blind area" around the hard blind area. This "soft blind area" can be simply controlled by increasing the density of the seismic station to minimize it. This paper also puts forward the number of actual triggering stations, the 1.5 quantitative relation between the station layout density and the actual "blind area", which has no relationship. The theory of seismic network, performance evaluation and quality control of earthquake early warning system may have practical significance.2) the finite nature of earthquake rupture is an important concept in modern seismology. It is of great significance to the layout and design of earthquake warning system. This paper has discussed this problem through the assumption of some earthquake cases. The effect of earthquake early warning system on earthquake disaster reduction is far greater than that in the traditional seismological perspective. This view deepens the idea that early warning stations should consider properly not uniform layout, and that early warning stations in near fault areas may make earthquake early warning systems in the event of large earthquakes. More effective.3) the best recognition function (or function) that can recognize the close fault strong motion record (or function) has a potential application value to quickly report the magnitude of earthquake rupture. In reality, the strong seismic stations are limited in most of the land. A simplified method of one-dimensional seismic rupture propagation is considered. This method is based on rapid retrieval of fault geometry and rupture direction. The existence of "blind area" may affect the measurement time of this method and in turn affect the performance of earthquake warning system. This paper also discusses the problem in this paper. For a long time, the "blind area" view is also discussed. It is expected that the analysis of this paper may bring some other dawning light. The purpose of this article is to inspire some "blind spots" related to the "blind area", and to analyze some "blind areas" in the new field of modern seismology. Question.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)地震局地球物理研究所
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：P315.75

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