發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-23 04:34

  本文選題：地震災(zāi)害 + 可公度��； 參考：《陜西師范大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：災(zāi)害具有向人性,地震災(zāi)害因其預(yù)測難度大,造成的死亡人數(shù)排在各類自然災(zāi)害的首位,造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失不可估量。汾渭盆地是華北地震構(gòu)造區(qū)的主要地震活動帶之一,歷史地震活動強(qiáng)烈且人口密度集中,研究該區(qū)地震災(zāi)害時(shí)空特征具有深遠(yuǎn)的意義,在一定程度上能夠減輕地震害的程度。本文選取汾渭盆地作為研究區(qū)域,對其歷史中強(qiáng)地震時(shí)空特征進(jìn)行分析；依據(jù)該帶呈“S”形雁列式展布且地震能具有分區(qū)性特點(diǎn),將汾渭盆地劃分為北段、中段、南段三個(gè)地震帶來分別研究。對不同地震帶1900年以來發(fā)震時(shí)間和震中進(jìn)行時(shí)間對稱性和空間對稱性分析,做出時(shí)空趨勢判斷。并對汾渭盆地地震與其相關(guān)因子(太陽黑子活動周期、月相活動與地球自轉(zhuǎn)速率變化參數(shù))進(jìn)行了初步探討。應(yīng)用的方法主要有：可公度、蝴蝶結(jié)構(gòu)圖、可公度結(jié)構(gòu)系、空間對稱性等方法。本文主要結(jié)論如下：(1)公元以來Ms≥6.0地震呈現(xiàn)出活躍期與平靜期相間的韻律性。在經(jīng)向、緯向上完成了4次回旋遷移,存在明顯的東西遷移規(guī)律與南北遷移特征,判斷下一次發(fā)震位置位于40°N以南,114°E以東。汾渭盆地Ms≥6.0地震多發(fā)生在朔望附近,朔日發(fā)震頻率最高。(2)統(tǒng)計(jì)各個(gè)地震帶1900年以來地震時(shí)空對稱性發(fā)現(xiàn)：全區(qū)下一次發(fā)生Ms≥5.1地震的時(shí)間窗口期為2015年、2016年；震中大體位置為40.2°N,114°E。北段下一次發(fā)生Ms≥4.3地震時(shí)間窗口期為2016年、2021年；震中位置為114°E以西,40°N以北。中段下一次發(fā)生Ms≥4.5地震時(shí)間窗口期為2015年、2023年；震中位置為37.45°N以北,112.4°E以西。南段下一次發(fā)生Ms≥4.4地震時(shí)間窗口期為2036年、2041年；震中位置為34.3°N以北,109.4°E以東。(3)統(tǒng)計(jì)1900年來汾渭盆地各區(qū)地震發(fā)生年份與太陽黑子活動對應(yīng)情況,發(fā)現(xiàn)：從地震與太陽黑子上升段、下降段相關(guān)性來看,全區(qū)在下降段發(fā)震概率較高,南段在上升段發(fā)震概率較高；從地震與極值年及附近年份相關(guān)性來看,南段在極小值年及附近年份發(fā)震的頻率較大,相反,北段、中段在極大值年及附近年份發(fā)震的頻率較大。從太陽黑子的單雙周期分析來看,太陽黑子雙周期的下降段發(fā)震頻率最高,其次為單雙周期的上升段。單周期的極值年發(fā)震頻率要高于雙周期,且單周期的谷值年發(fā)震概率較高。北段雙周期極值年份發(fā)震概率高,中段與南段在單周期極值年份發(fā)震概率較高。(4)研究各個(gè)分區(qū)地震發(fā)生與月相關(guān)系,得出發(fā)生于朔望附近的地震概率中段南段北段。直觀來看,1900年以來汾渭盆地地震與月相關(guān)系不是很明確,有較強(qiáng)的隨機(jī)性。(5)研究各個(gè)分區(qū)地震發(fā)生與地球自轉(zhuǎn)相關(guān)關(guān)系,得出整體而言減速期發(fā)震概率大于加速期。全區(qū)地球自轉(zhuǎn)加速期與減速期發(fā)震頻次基本相等；北段與中段加速期地震發(fā)生次數(shù)小于減速期；南段加速期地震發(fā)生次數(shù)大于減速期。即北段與中段減速期發(fā)震概率較大,南段加速期發(fā)震概率大。(6)鄂爾多斯地塊西緣與東南緣(汾渭地震帶)發(fā)震時(shí)間基本一致,地震活動基本同步。汾渭地震帶發(fā)震時(shí)間大概在鄂爾多斯地塊西緣地震帶發(fā)震時(shí)間前后1-3a。鄂爾多斯地塊西緣地震帶平靜期間,汾渭地震帶地震發(fā)生于西緣地震帶之前；活躍期間,汾渭地震帶地震發(fā)生于西緣地震帶之后。一定程度上說明了鄂爾多斯地塊西緣地震活動與東南緣汾渭地震帶活動相互作用,相互影響。該研究對豐富災(zāi)害趨勢判斷研究、增加災(zāi)害驗(yàn)證案例、指導(dǎo)防災(zāi)減災(zāi)提供了重要依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:The disaster caused by the earthquake disaster is difficult to predict because of the difficulty of prediction. The number of deaths caused by the earthquake is the first of all kinds of natural disasters, and the economic loss is immeasurable. The Fen Wei basin is one of the main seismic zones in the seismic tectonic area of North China. The historical earthquake activity is strong and the population density is concentrated. The study of the temporal and spatial characteristics of the earthquake disaster in this area is studied. In this paper, the Fen Wei basin is selected as the study area, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the strong earthquakes in the history are analyzed. According to the "S" shaped wild goose distribution and the zoning characteristics of the earthquake, the Fen Wei basin is divided into three earthquakes in the north, the middle and the south. The time symmetry and spatial symmetry of the seismogenic time and the epicenter of different seismic belts were analyzed, and the temporal and spatial trend was judged. The earthquakes in the Fen Wei basin and its related factors (the cycle of sunspot activity, the variation parameters of the moon phase and the rotation of the earth) were preliminarily discussed. The main application methods were as follows: The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the Ms > 6 earthquake in the ad shows the rhythms between the active period and the calmness period. 4 cycles of migration have been completed in the meridian and latitude, and there are obvious migration laws of East and West and the characteristics of the migration of the North and the south, and the next seismic location is judged. Located in the south of 40 N and east of 114 E, the earthquake of Ms > 6 in Fenwei basin occurred mostly in the vicinity of Shuo Wang, and the frequency of the earthquake was the highest. (2) the time and space symmetry of earthquakes in every seismic zone since 1900 was found: the time window period for the next earthquake of Ms more than 5.1 in the whole region was in 2015 and 2016; the epicenter was generally located at 40.2 [N], and 114 [E.] in the north section. The time window period of Ms > 4.3 earthquake occurs in 2016, 2021, the epicenter position is 114 E to the West and 40 degree N to the north. The next time of the middle section of the Ms > 4.5 earthquake time window period is 2015 and 2023; the epicenter position is 37.45 [37.45] N to the West. The next time of the south segment of the southern segment is 2036, 2041, and the epicentral position. To the north of 34.3 N and 109.4 degree E to the East. (3) statistics of the corresponding situation of the occurrence of earthquake in the Fen Wei basin in 1900 and the sunspot activity in the Fen Wei basin. It is found that the probability of the earthquake is higher in the descending section from the correlation of the rise section of the sunspot and the sunspot, and the probability of the earthquake in the south section is higher in the ascending segment, and from the earthquake and the extreme year and the nearby year. According to the correlation, the frequency of earthquakes in the south section is larger in the minimum and nearby years. On the contrary, the frequency of the earthquakes in the north and the middle reaches is greater. From the single double cycle analysis of sunspot, the frequency of the sunspot double cycle is the highest, followed by a single double cycle. The frequency of occurrence of shock is higher than that of double cycle, and the probability of annual occurrence of single cycle is higher. The probability of earthquake occurrence is high in the north segment with double cycle extremum, and the probability of earthquake occurrence is higher in the middle and southern section. (4) the relationship between the earthquake occurrence and the moon phase in each subregion is studied, and the northern section of the middle section of the middle section of the earthquake near the new moon is obtained. 1 In the past 900 years, the relationship between the earthquake and the moon phase in the Fen Wei basin is not very clear and has strong randomness. (5) to study the relationship between the earthquake occurrence and the earth rotation in each subregion, the probability of earthquake occurrence in the whole deceleration period is greater than that of the acceleration period. The frequency of birth is less than the deceleration period, and the frequency of earthquakes in the southern section is greater than that of the deceleration period. That is, the probability of earthquake occurrence in the northern and middle period is larger than that in the middle period. (6) the earthquake occurrence time of the western margin of the Ordos block is basically the same as the southeast margin (Fenwei seismic belt), and the seismic activity is basically synchronized. The earthquake occurred in the west margin of the western margin of the 1-3a. Ordos block before and after the seismicity of the west margin of the western margin of the Erdos block. The Fen Wei seismic belt earthquake occurred before the western margin seismic belt, and the Fen Wei seismic belt earthquake occurred after the west margin seismic belt during the active period. Seismic activity interaction and mutual influence, this study provides an important basis for enriching the study of disaster trend, increasing disaster verification cases, and guiding disaster prevention and mitigation.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P315.9

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